President Evariste Ndayishimiye enjoys good relations with the Democratic Republic of Congo next door. But following accusations that Rwanda is harbouring anti-Burundi insurgents and coup plotters, relations with that neighbour deteriorated severely over the course of 2023. At home, oppressive policies aimed at obstructing opposition continue while the ruling party’s supporters, especially its Imbonerakure youth wing, enjoy near impunity for their abuses. Crisis Group keeps an eye on Burundi’s role in the region’s fraught diplomacy and monitors its internal situation through the monthly conflict tracker CrisisWatch.
On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Preparations for 2025 elections continued amid further efforts to sideline opposition; concerns rose over condition of Burundian refugees in Tanzania.
Measures for 2025 legislative polls faced scepticism. Electoral commission 2 Aug asserted readiness for upcoming 2025 legislative elections, citing sufficient budget. Concerns persisted, however, over underrepresentation of Muslim community members in electoral commission, absence of Catholic Church representatives and perceived short timeframe for appointing independent electoral commissioners. Meanwhile, opposition and local residents accused ruling CNDD-FDD party youth wing Imbonerakure of 19 Aug onwards forcibly coercing financial contributions to CNDD-FDD electoral campaign in Bujumbura, Makamba and Rutana provinces.
Opposition continued to face state-sponsored harassment. Opposition coalition CNARED-GIRITEKA 13 Aug accused CNDD-FDD of disseminating false leaflets to discredit them and of escalating ethnic tensions. Security forces also continued repression of opposition; intelligence agents 2-3 Aug abducted three individuals in Bujumbura city, including opposition activist; SOS Media Burundi 7 Aug reported Imbonerakure members in Giharo district, Rutana, had raped wife of former ruling party activist who joined opposition UPRONA party. Amid oppressive climate, rights group Amnesty International 21 Aug issued report criticising “wave of repression”.
Condition of Burundian refugees in Tanzania came to fore. Amid mid-Aug reports of detention and assaults of Burundian nationals near Nduta and Nyarugusu refugee camps, joint Burundian-Tanzanian delegation 6-7 Aug visited camps, affirming plans to repatriate tens of thousands by years-end. Meanwhile, locals 8 Aug reported Rwandan armed group presence in Bukinanyana district, Cibitoke province, alleging their involvement in extortion and theft near Kibira natural reserve, causing displacement among locals. More Imbonerakure members reportedly received paramilitary training in Cibitoke early Aug onwards, ahead of suspected deployment to DR Congo.
In another important development. President Ndayishimiye 14 Aug granted presidential pardon to journalist Floriane Irangabiye, imprisoned since Jan 2023 for criticising govt, sparking hope of potential other amnesties.
Fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is intensifying, with Ugandan and Burundian soldiers in pursuit of rebels and Congolese insurgents on the rebound. With help from its allies, Kinshasa should step up diplomacy lest the country become a regional battleground once more.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Great Lakes expert Nelleke van de Walle about the escalation of violence in the eastern DR Congo, as Uganda and Burundi deploy troops to fight rebels in the area and Rwanda threatens to do the same.
Reform promises by Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye have led to a marked improvement in relations with the EU. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2021 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to set benchmarks for Burundian human rights reforms and ensure compliance with EU-Burundi agreements.
Every year Crisis Group publishes two additional Watch List updates that complement its annual Watch List for the EU, most recently published in January 2021. These publications identify major crises and conflict situations where the European Union and its member states can generate stronger prospects for peace. The Autumn Update of the Watch List 2021 includes entries on Afghanistan, Burundi, Iran, Nagorno-Karabakh and Nicaragua.
In his year in office, Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye has shown an appetite for reform and re-engagement with international partners. In this Q &A, Crisis Group experts assess whether ruling-party hardliners will hold the country back from turning a corner.
On 20 May, Burundians will elect a new president, future members of parliament and municipal councillors, amid the COVID-19 pandemic. In this Q&A, Crisis Group looks at the various scenarios for the polls and the challenges that will face whoever prevails.
As May elections approach, Burundi’s ruling party says it has stopped demanding payments from citizens to finance the polls. But the confiscatory practice persists. Bujumbura should move decisively to halt it as a prelude to wider-ranging improvement of governance in the country.
President Tshisekedi’s plans for joint operations with DR Congo’s belligerent eastern neighbours against its rebels risks regional proxy warfare. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to encourage diplomatic efforts in the region and Tshisekedi to shelve his plan for the joint operations.
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