CrisisWatch Armenia

Unchanged Situation

Yerevan and Baku remained at odds on key issues in peace process amid spike in reported incidents along frontline; Armenia pushed to deepen cooperation with West. 

Lack of consensus with Baku on key issues could hinder efforts for peace deal. Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged draft peace treaty during month amid recent positive momentum in peace process. Yet sides remain far apart on important issues, including withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops from Armenia and opening of road that connects Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan. Pointing to another sticking point, Azerbaijani President Aliyev 20 June once again said Yerevan needed to amend its constitution, which includes references to former Nagorno-Karabakh. Day before, local media revealed that PM Pashinyan had instructed Council of Constitutional Reforms to draft new constitution by end of 2026. With these issues entering public domain and parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan approaching (see Azerbaijan), it remains unclear whether sides can sign peace treaty before Nov Cop29, which will be held in Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, small-scale protests against border deal continued in Armenia.

Baku reported multiple incidents along frontline. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defence mid-June alleged several times that Armenian troops opened fire at military positions, mostly in direction of Nakhchivan. Yerevan denied involvement as PM Pashinyan 15 June suggested new bilateral mechanism to investigate border incidents, 22 June reiterated proposal after Baku reported another incident in its Kelbajar district, key flashpoint along frontline since 2020 war; Baku had not responded to proposition by end of June.

Armenia’s ties with West deepened as relations with Russia and its allies cooled. Yerevan 11 June held strategic dialogue meeting with U.S., 11-12 June hosted Armenia-EU Partnership Committee meeting amid efforts to forge closer ties with West. Meanwhile, Pashinyan 12 June reiterated that Armenia could withdraw completely from Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, next day announced he would not visit Belarus as long as Lukashenko remained president after Politico report revealed Minsk sold weapons to Baku (see Belarus).

In other important developments. Pashinyan and Turkish President Erdoğan 18 June confirmed readiness to continue with normalisation process. Yerevan 21 June announced its recognition of State of Palestine.

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