Op-Ed / Middle East & North Africa 20 May 2024 1 minute

Why Iran Believes It’s Winning Against Israel

Tehran has concluded that a regional reordering is underway. The death of the president and foreign minister won’t change that.

On Sunday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and several other officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, died in a helicopter crash. This incident occurred following an unprecedented round of escalation between Iran and Israel in April, sparking speculation on the potential implications for Iran’s regional policy and the ongoing conflict with Israel.

Despite the sudden vacuum that has emerged at the top of Iran’s executive branch, the strategic direction of its foreign and regional policies, primarily determined by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and influenced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), are expected to remain unaltered. However, the recent escalation between Iran and Israel is already impacting Iran’s strategic thinking and its regional calculations.

For Iran, Israel’s April 1 attack on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus that killed several IRGC members, including high-level commanders, crossed a line. From its vantage point, both the targets’ seniority and the facility’s character represented an unacceptable Israeli escalation.

Read the full article in Foreign Policy.