Since 2017, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s northernmost province, is the scene of a deadly insurrection. While foreigners have joined in the name of jihad, most of the Mozambican rank and file militants are motivated by their perceived socio-economic exclusion amid major mineral and hydrocarbon discoveries in the region. The conflict threatens national stability, just as Mozambique is fulfilling a peace deal with the country’s main opposition group in the center of Mozambique, and risks becoming a new frontier for global jihad to exploit. Crisis Group advocates for bespoke military support from external actors, dialogue with the Mozambican rank and file and measures to address the underlying frustrations that led these militants to take up arms.
On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Islamic State militants remained active in northern Cabo Delgado province as Rwanda prepared offensive; election preparations continued.
Jihadist threat persisted in Cabo Delgado despite fewer attacks. Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) violence continued at lower level than previous months but militants remained present in province. Notably, militant activity reported in Palma district, home to multi-billion-dollar international gas project, for first time in 18 months, while ISMP 11-13 July clashed with security forces in Nangade district, leaving at least two insurgents dead. Lull in overall attacks may be due to insurgents regrouping in preparation for expected Rwandan offensive. Rwandan troops late month began deploying to Macomia district as campaign will reportedly focus on dislodging militants from strongholds including Catupa forest and coastal villages of district. Meanwhile, series of incidents highlighted troubled relationship between Mozambique military and local communities. Notably, after soldiers 8 July killed shop owner in Nanga neighbourhood of Macomia town, residents next day violently confronted army; clashes reportedly left several soldiers dead.
Regional mission concluded, bilateral deployments to fill vacuum. Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) 15 July concluded three-year deployment to Cabo Delgado; at official ceremony in provincial capital Pemba, Defence Minister Cristóvão Chume 4 July thanked mission but acknowledged insecurity continued in northern province. Bilateral deployments expected to fill vacuum after SAMIM’s departure; Rwanda in May announced additional 2,000 troops, while President Nyusi 1 July said Tanzania – which has several hundred troops in Nangade district – would continue to support fight against ISMP. Meanwhile, EU 3 July postponed decision on €20mn financial support to Rwandan troops in province amid some member states’ concerns over Kigali’s backing of Congolese rebel group M23.
Preparations for Oct general elections continued. Electoral body 17 July removed recently formed coalition of opposition parties Coligação Aliança Democrática (CAD) from legislative and provincial ballot over alleged irregularities in registration for vote; CAD appealed in Constitutional Court while its candidate Venâncio Mondlane – formerly of main opposition RENAMO party – remained on ballot for presidential poll.
The southern African mission in Mozambique is slated to wrap up in July, but some troops will remain, as neighbouring countries worry that the jihadist insurgency in Cabo Delgado is rebounding. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Meron Elias and Pauline Bax explain the concerns.
The Al-Shabab insurgency continues to pose a threat to civilians in northern Mozambique. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help stabilise the area.
Rwandan and southern African troops have helped authorities fight an Islamist insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s northernmost province. The threat is greatly lowered but not yet gone. Maputo will need more military assistance as well as a nudge to address the conflict’s political roots.
In this episode of The Horn’s mini-series exploring jihadism along the East African coast, Alan Boswell talks to Dr. Adriano Nuvunga about what caused the insurgency in Mozambique to grow and the need for a coordinated regional strategy that addresses its root causes.
This special mini-series of Crisis Group’s The Horn explores jihadism along the Swahili coast. In this first episode, Alan Boswell talks to Ngala Chome about the history of militant ideologies in Eastern Africa and how states can better address their growing threat.
Online event, in partnership with the South African weekly newspaper Mail & Guardian, to discuss how to prevent the Cabo Delgado insurrection from escalating into a new frontier for global jihadism.
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