The Syrian conflict since 2011 is a constellation of overlapping crises. Each of its global, regional and sub-national dimensions demands a tailored response set within an overarching framework. Instead, chronic violence and worsening suffering have killed more than 250,000 people, fueling radicalisation, refugee flight and a self-sustaining war economy. Outside stakeholders must learn from the way the Syrian conflict has repeatedly dashed unrealistic expectations on all sides. Crisis Group pursues a comprehensive approach for achieving a sustainable decline in violence and, ultimately, a political settlement. We also seek to correct dominant narratives that focus on jihadism and migrant flows, which are the symptoms, rather than the causes, of the problem.
Armed groups aligned with Tehran have launched attacks aimed at compelling the U.S. to withdraw troops from Syria – and from Iraq. A ceasefire in Gaza is the best way to calm tensions, but Washington and its local partner can take ameliorative steps in the meantime.
Anti-Türkiye protests turned deadly in north west, where demonstrations against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) continued; Iran-backed groups resumed attacks on U.S. bases.
In north west, anti-Türkiye protests turned deadly and protests against HTS continued. Following late-June attacks on Syrians in Türkiye, large-scale anti-Türkiye protests 1 July erupted in north west, with protesters removing Turkish flags and attacking Turkish military vehicles, bases, and checkpoints; Turkish forces killed seven protesters in Afrin city and one in Jarabulus city, both in Aleppo province. Amid widespread internet and communications’ service disruptions, Türkiye closed border for several days as military police of Türkiye-aligned Syrian Interim Govt 3 July launched arrest campaign (see Türkiye). Meanwhile, protests demanding resignation of HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and prison reform continued in Idlib and Aleppo provinces; notably, clashes 5 July erupted in Binnish town as HTS cracked down on protesters after they allegedly injured police officer. Protest movement, local community leaders and HTS-dominated Salvation Govt 17 July reached agreement to release some detainees and suspend protests in Binnish for three months; protests continued elsewhere.
Iran-backed groups and U.S. carried out tit-for-tat strikes. Iranian-backed groups 25-26 July fired missiles toward U.S. base at Conoco gas field, prompting U.S. to strike locations of Iranian-backed groups east of Deir ez-Zor city with heavy artillery shells. Meanwhile, Israel continued strikes, notably killing govt-affiliated business tycoon and militia leader Baraa al-Qaterji and his driver on Damascus-Beirut highway 15 July.
ISIS attacks persisted. U.S. Central Command 17 July noted uptick in Islamic State (ISIS) attacks in Syria and Iraq as part of group’s attempt to “reconstitute” capabilities. Notably, ISIS 3 July killed two shepherds and six govt forces searching for them in Raqqa province.
In other important developments. Clashes between local group Thuwar Kanaker and govt forces 2 July erupted in Kanaker town, Rif Dimashq province after latter arrested former commander of al-Furqan Brigades; govt forces same day shelled town, killing five civilians; parties next day reached ceasefire. Kurdish authorities in north east 17 July granted general amnesty to people “whose hands are not stained with blood of Syrians”, leading to release of hundreds of prisoners. Türkiye continued attacks on Kurdish militants (see Türkiye).
International reporting on the Middle East is focused on the Gaza war…, which has further reduced the visibility of the Syrian conflict.
Banks are hesitant to change their banking operations [in Syria] when they know that permissions could expire imminently.
Turkey is highly unlikely to compromise on troop withdrawal [from northern Syria].
It's important to remember that [Syrian president] Assad's return to the Arab League is a symbolic measure to begin the process of ending his regional isolation.
The U.S. and Europe have made it clear that they do not agree with Arab states normalizing with the Assad regime, but there doesn’t seem to be much they can do about it.
The UAE has, since 2021, embarked on a policy of diminishing tensions with other countries in the region, and normalizing with Assad is part of that.
Since the Syrian uprising began in 2011, Ankara has been drawn ever deeper into the crisis. Its approach will likely hold steady for now. But the choices it makes next matter for the fate of millions of Syrians.
The League of Arab States welcomed President Bashar al-Assad to its May summit, reinstating Syria’s membership, which it had suspended in 2011. The regime may look to have shrugged off the international opprobrium it earned for its brutality in repressing its opponents. But has it?
The rebels who control north-western Syria are dealing harshly with ISIS cells but have not yet crushed them entirely. The best way to stop jihadists from rebounding is to consolidate the area’s ceasefire. Outside powers can also help by sending more humanitarian aid.
Its self-declared caliphate is gone, but ISIS continues to stage attacks and intimidate the public in much of its former domain. The forces fighting the group need to hinder the militants’ movement between Syria’s regions – and, above all, to avoid debilitating conflicts with one another.
To prevent ISIS from resurging, forces fighting the group should stop it from moving across regions and avoid conflict with one another. This timeline catalogues some of the major ISIS attacks and counter-ISIS operations from 2017 to February 2022.
The UN Security Council is considering renewing an understanding whereby UN agencies transport aid to Idlib, an area held by Syrian rebels. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Richard Gowan, Dareen Khalifa and Ashish Pradhan explain why the arrangement remains essential.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to experts Dareen Khalifa and Jerome Drevon about ISIS in Syria after the death of its leader Abdullah Qardash, the precarious calm that prevails across the country and the evolution of al-Qaeda’s former affiliate in the north west, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Aleppo was devastated by bombing and shelling during the Syrian war. It remains unsafe, with residents subject to shakedowns by the regime’s security forces and various militias. Damascus and its outside backers should curb this predation as a crucial first step toward the city’s recovery.
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