Tracking Conflict Worldwide
Outlook for This Month September 2022
Conflict Risk Alerts
Trends for Last Month August 2022
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights three conflict risk alerts in September.
- Ethiopia’s federal and Tigray forces returned to frontline fighting, shattering the March ceasefire. Hostilities could further escalate along multiple fronts, threatening prospects for long-awaited peace talks.
- In Eritrea, the renewed hostilities in Ethiopia could end the volatile calm along the countries’ shared border, as Eritrean forces once more become embroiled in the conflict.
- In Libya, the worst fighting in years erupted in the capital Tripoli between forces loyal to the two rival governments, raising the prospect of a return to full-blown war.
CrisisWatch spotlighted deteriorations in ten countries in August.
- Tensions soared in the Taiwan Strait as China conducted large-scale live-fire exercises around Taiwan as part of its response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island.
- In Sierra Leone, President Bio accused the political opposition of an insurrection, as deadly protests over the rising cost of living erupted across the country.
- Al-Shabaab conducted its first major assault in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu since President Mohamud returned to power, killing over twenty people.
- In Israel-Palestine, Israeli forces launched an offensive against the Islamic Jihad faction in Gaza that killed dozens of Palestinians in the worst fighting since May 2021.
- In northern Syria, Turkish drone strikes and cross-border attacks on Turkish army sites by Kurdish-led forces fueled a deadly escalation that claimed lives on both sides.
- Ecuador’s President Lasso imposed a state of emergency in Guayaquil city after a bombing killed five people. The attack marked a dramatic escalation of violence in a country plagued by rising gang-related crime.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we usually assess, we tracked notable developments in August in Brazil, Nile Waters, Rwanda and Togo.
Türkiye continued hydrocarbon exploration in undisputed maritime zones north of island, while European energy companies announced major gas discovery south of island. Türkiye 9 Aug dispatched its fifth drillship Abdülhamid Han for hydrocarbon research and drilling in undisputed maritime zones north of Cyprus; Greek Cypriots have been alarmed by prospect of such activities moving into disputed zones. French energy company Total and Italian energy company Eni 22 Aug announced discovery of significant natural gas deposits at Cronos-1 well in Block 6, south of island; preliminary estimates indicate presence of 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. Republic of Cyprus energy ministry same day said govt and companies had already begun “processing ways to expedite and optimise use of this new discovery”. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev 9 Aug met with Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar in Türkiye on margins of Islamic Solidarity Games. Meeting drew harsh criticism from Republic of Cyprus officials, who 11 Aug said they were expecting “corrective steps” and threatened to veto Azerbaijan’s bid for partnership deal on energy supplies with EU; Greek Cypriot officials are concerned that such meetings could pave way for political recognition of Turkish Cypriot entity in north.
Amid military operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), fighting escalated with Kurdish-led forces in Syria, while tensions persisted with Greece and govt restored ties with Israel. In escalation in northern Syria, military launched strikes on Kurdish-led forces, who claimed attacks on army sites in Turkish border provinces that killed several Turkish soldiers (see Syria). Military also continued operations against PKK in Iraq and Türkiye’s south east. In northern Iraq, Defence ministry 27 Aug said it killed nine PKK militants. In Türkiye’s south east, military 8 Aug launched new anti-PKK operation in rural areas of Bitlis province. Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu 19 Aug said only 124 PKK members remained within country’s borders and “no terrorist will remain in the countryside” in 2023. Authorities detained at least 30 pro-Kurdish People’s Democrat