CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.
Central African Republic
Central African Republic
Democratic Republic of Congo
Looking ahead to January, CrisisWatch warns of three conflict risks.
In the Central African Republic, deadly fighting involving armed groups allied with former President François Bozizé broke out ahead of the 27 December general elections. Disputed vote tallies could spark another dangerous cycle of violence.
In Uganda, political tensions ran high ahead of the 14 January general elections, and the violent crackdown on the opposition could escalate.
Electoral disputes in Somalia delayed the legislative polls and threaten to derail February’s high-stakes presidential election. As we have warned, a disrupted contest could fuel political discord, which Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State might then exploit.
Looking back to December, the latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conflict tracker, highlights deteriorations in ten countries and conflict areas, mostly in Africa, as well as improved situations in Myanmar and Côte d’Ivoire.
In Iraq, mass protests spread into the Kurdish region amid clashes between Kurdish armed factions. Notably, the Kurdish Peshmerga and members of the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units exchanged fire for the first time.
Violence erupted in the disputed border area between Ethiopia and Sudan, with Khartoum reclaiming large swathes of territory.
In a major show of force, and after weeks of political tensions, DR Congo’s President Félix Tshisekedi announced the end of the ruling coalition he had formed with his predecessor Joseph Kabila.
In Niger, jihadists launched one of their deadliest attacks on civilians in years, killing dozens ahead of the 27 December general elections.
In his introduction to this month’s edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's President Robert Malley reflects on the once-unimaginable scenes that unfolded in the U.S. Capitol last night, as a mob violently stormed the building. He also explains how we choose our ten conflicts to watch each year.
Jihadist violence persisted mainly in northern regions, and President Kaboré was sworn in for second term. In Sahel region in north, suspected Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) militants 7 Dec kidnapped resident in Beldiabe town, Oudalan province. Suspected jihadists 15 Dec also ambushed army patrol in Mansila commune, Yagha province, killing soldier; subsequent clashes reportedly left 13 attackers dead. In Centre North region, security forces 15 Dec killed two suspected jihadists in Silmangue village, Namentenga province. Clashes between volunteers fighting alongside security forces (VDPs) and suspected jihadists 19 Dec reportedly left several jihadists dead and one VDP injured near Dablo town, Sanmatenga province. Situation remained fragile in East region: suspected al-Qaeda-linked Group to Support Islam and Muslims (JNIM) combatants 1 Dec kidnapped municipal councillor in Boula village, Gagna province. Policeman 9 Dec also shot dead farmer at checkpoint near Tanghin-Dassouri city in Centre region’s Kadiogo province; in response, protesters same day took to streets in Tanghin-Dassouri, briefly occupying unmanned police station and blocking road. Meanwhile, independent body National Human Rights Commission 7 Dec reported 647 incidents around 22 Nov general elections, which impeded human rights including freedom of movement, free speech and access to education. Constitutional Council 18 Dec confirmed re-election of President Kaboré, who was sworn in 28 Dec; Kaboré 30 Dec dissolved govt.
Authorities continued to harass opposition while country’s removal from UN Security Council agenda marked major victory for President Ndayishimiye. Unidentified assailants 2 Dec killed two members of opposition party National Congress for Freedom (CNL) in Butaganzwa commune, Ruyigi province. Police 14 Dec arrested six CNL members in Mutimbuzi commune, Bujumbura Rural province on suspicion of supporting rebel group. In joint report on human rights violations, 15 civil society organisations 10 Dec recorded 821 arbitrary arrests, 368 extrajudicial killings, 182 torture cases and 59 enforced disappearances in 2020; report identified CNL members and ethnic Tutsis as main victims, and security forces and ruling party CNDD-FDD youth wing Imbonerakure as main perpetrators. Ndayishimiye 30 Dec said Burundian Tutsis are over-represented in international organisations, vowed to “purify the dirty water” in Burundi. Meanwhile, govt relations with international community thawed. UN Security Council 4 Dec removed Burundi from its agenda; thousands of ruling-party supporters 12 Dec celebrated move in capital Gitega, economic capital Bujumbura and Ngozi city. Ndayishimiye 7 Dec met EU Ambassador Claude Bochu in Bujumbura; first meeting between EU and Burundian head of state since EU suspended financial cooperation with govt in 2016. FM Albert Shingiro 10-11 Dec also met Bochu alongside Belgian, French, German and Dutch ambassadors in Bujumbura to discuss normalisation of relations with EU. Former President Buyoya 18 Dec died of COVID-19 in France; Buyoya had resigned as African Union High Representative for Mali and the Sahel late Nov after Supreme Court in Oct sentenced him in absentia to life imprisonment for involvement in murder of Hutu President Ndadaye in 1993. African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights 15 Dec expressed concern about “violation of fundamental rights” of Burundian refugees in Tanzania, including cases of forced eviction.
Separatists disrupted regional elections in Anglophone regions, while jihadists continued to target civilians in Far North. President Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) won nine of ten regional councils in 6 Dec elections; CPDM’s ally National Union for Democracy won remaining council; main opposition parties, Maurice Kamto’s Cameroon Renaissance Movement and John Fru Ndi’s Social Democratic Front, boycotted vote. Security forces 8 Dec lifted months-long blockade of Kamto’s home in capital Yaoundé. Ahead of vote, Anglophone separatists 4 Dec imposed three-day ghost town in North West and South West regions. On voting day, suspected separatists 6 Dec killed municipal councillor in Alabukam village and wounded two men near Akum village, both North West. Also in North West, suspected separatists 12 Dec kidnapped Kedjom Ketinguh village chief, released him three days later after ransom payment; armed forces 13 Dec reportedly killed community leader in Mukuru village, Wum commune, and 26 Dec reportedly killed two patients in Tubah District Hospital. In South West region, soldiers 12 Dec reportedly killed two civilians in Eyumojock subdivision, and 21 Dec raided two villages in Mbonge commune, killing six. Suspected separatists 13 Dec kidnapped three village chiefs in regional capital Buea, later killed one and released two. Army and separatists 22 Dec exchanged fire in Tombel town, leaving civilian dead. UN Special Envoy for Central Africa Louceny Fall 9 Dec briefed UN Security Council on Anglophone conflict; U.S. called Cameroon greatest concern in region with 6.2mn in need of humanitarian assistance, 2.3mn more than in early 2020. Boko Haram (BH) attacks continued in Far North. In Mayo-Sava division, BH overnight 9-10 Dec attacked Gakara village, injuring two soldiers; night of 15-16 Dec killed two civilians in Gouzoudou locality. In Mayo-Tsanaga division, BH 2 Dec killed three civilians in Mayo-Moskota town; 28 Dec killed civilian and injured several others in Ouzal village. In Logone-et-Chari division, BH overnight 23-24 Dec killed 12 civilians in Darak and Blangoua towns. In Adamawa region in centre, Central African Republic-based armed group Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R) 26 Dec reportedly kidnapped three Cameroonian gendarmes.
Deadly fighting involving armed groups allied to former President Bozizé broke out ahead of 27 Dec general elections; electoral results could spark escalation in Jan. After months of uncertainty over presidential candidacy of former President Bozizé, Constitutional Court 3 Dec rejected his application, citing international arrest warrant and UN sanctions against him; Bozizé’s party same day denounced court ruling. Coalition of six armed groups, all signatories to Feb 2019 peace agreement and including some supporting Bozizé, 15 Dec announced mobilisation against govt and electoral process; 18-19 Dec took over parts of Lobaye, Ouham, Ouham-Pendé, Nana Gribizi and Ombella M’Poko prefectures in west, centre and south, blocking main supply routes to Bangui, and clashing with army and UN peacekeeping force (MINUSCA) notably around cities of Bossombele (Ombella M’Poko), Bossemptele (Ouham-Pendé) and Bambari (Ouaka); death toll unknown; 1,500 civilians reportedly fled to neighbouring Cameroon 18-23 Dec. UN 18 Dec condemned violence and called on “all actors to urgently cease hostile actions”. Govt next day said Bozizé was behind new armed coalition and accused him of “coup attempt”. At govt’s request, Russia and Rwanda 20-21 Dec deployed hundreds of troops notably around Lobaye’s capital Mbaiki. Unidentified assailants 25 Dec killed three MINUSCA troops in Dekoa town, Kémo prefecture (centre). On election day, suspected armed group members set election material on fire in Ouham-Pendé prefecture and fired shots in Ouaka, Haute-Kotto and Nana-Mambéré prefectures; also threatened voters and election officials across country. Unidentified assailants next day attacked public bus in Grimari city, Ouaka prefecture, reportedly killing several civilians including Médecins sans Frontières worker. Electoral commission 28 Dec said over 14% of polling stations were closed due to insecurity across country. Meanwhile, clashes between armed groups erupted in north east: ethnic Goula ex-Seleka group and ethnic Arab Missirias militia from neighbouring Sudan 1 Dec clashed in Boromata town, Vakaga prefecture, leaving 35 Arab Missirias and four Goula dead; army and MINUSCA immediately sent troops to patrol town.
Intercommunal violence flared up in several regions leaving dozens dead, while govt continued to repress opposition amid COVID-19 restrictions. Farmer-herder clashes 10 Dec killed at least 12 in Doulbarid locality, Ouaddai province (east). Land dispute between ethnic Bulala and Arab communities 12 Dec escalated into brawl in Achiguek village, Batha province (centre), leaving at least 25 dead. Herder-farmer clashes overnight 13-14 Dec also reportedly left nine dead in Béré town, Tandjilé province (south); angry mob next day ransacked préfet’s residence and vandalised police vehicles in Béré, leaving another two dead. Meanwhile, President Déby’s constitutional revision suffered setback. Parliament 3 Dec adopted constitutional reform bill providing that head of Senate – and not VP, personally appointed by president, as favoured by Déby – would take over as interim president in case of presidential vacancy or inability; Déby 14 Dec passed text into law. Court 11 Dec acquitted and released human rights activist Alain Kemba Didah and two co-defendants of “public order offenses” and “acts of rebellion” including breaching COVID-19-related restrictions; trio was arrested late Nov after organising opposition’s “citizens’ forum” in capital N’Djamena. Govt 11 Dec suspended opposition Parti Réformiste for three months after party chairman Yacine Abdramane Sakine 7 Dec said military was “held hostage by a small minority […] to keep Déby’s corrupt regime in power”. Members of opposition party Les Transformateurs 12 and 23 Dec gathered in N’Djamena to call for greater political freedom; police used tear gas to disperse them, citing COVID-19 regulations, leaving at least three injured. Amid small rise in COVID-19 cases, Déby 31 Dec banned all movement in and out of N’Djamena (including through airport) and all but essential movements within city for one week.
Amid lull in post-election violence, President Ouattara took oath for controversial third term and opened dialogue with opposition. Opposition Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) leader and de facto opposition spokesperson Henri Konan Bédié 9 Dec dissolved National Transitional Council, created after Oct presidential election with view to forming transitional govt, called for national dialogue. During swearing-in ceremony, Ouattara 14 Dec mandated PM Hamed Bakayoko to resume dialogue with opposition, with stated aim to find consensus on reform of electoral commission ahead of 2021 legislative elections. Ouattara next day appointed PDCI dissident and presidential candidate in Oct election, Kouadio Konan Bertin, as national reconciliation minister. Opposition boycotted and sharply criticised inauguration: Bédié 7 Dec decried it as “non-event”, while exiled opposition figure, former PM Guillaume Soro, 13 Dec denounced “illegal and illegitimate” ceremony. Govt and opposition representatives, including Bédié, 21 Dec met in economic capital Abidjan, 29 Dec agreed to hold legislative elections in March 2021; disagreements persisted, however, on release of detained and return of exiled opposition leaders, and reform of electoral commission; political dialogue set to resume mid-Jan. Authorities 30 Dec released and placed under judicial supervision opposition leader and presidential candidate in Oct election Pascal Affi N’Guessan, in detention since early Nov on terrorism charges. Meanwhile, NGO Human Rights Watch 2 Dec urged authorities to “investigate the killing of more than 50 people” around Oct presidential election and stop “targeting opposition members through a flawed legal process”. Govt 4 Dec handed diplomatic and ordinary passports to former President Gbagbo, currently in Belgium following his 2019 acquittal of crimes against humanity by International Criminal Court (ICC), 9 Dec said Gbagbo should await end of ICC proceedings before returning to Côte d’Ivoire. Gbagbo’s wing of Ivorian Popular Front party 23 Dec announced end of its ten-year boycott of national elections, said party would take part in 2021 legislative elections.
In major show of force and after weeks of political tensions, President Tshisekedi announced end of ruling coalition; meanwhile armed group attacks continued in eastern provinces. President Tshisekedi 6 Dec announced end of ruling coalition with former President Kabila’s Common Front for Congo (FCC), vowed to seek new majority in parliament. Brawl next day erupted in parliament between pro-Tshisekedi and pro-Kabila MPs who rejected move as unconstitutional, leaving three injured, while police used tear gas to disperse Tshisekedi’s supporters gathered outside parliament. MPs 10 Dec voted to remove Kabila’s ally Jeannine Mabunda as head of National Assembly, first indication that Tshisekedi has managed to shift balance of power in his favour in FCC-dominated assembly. Immediately after vote, Industry Minister and FCC member Julien Paluku defected to Tshisekedi, urged fellow FCC member, PM Ilunga Ilunkamba, to resign to avoid no-confidence vote. Tshisekedi 31 Dec tasked Senator and FCC defector Bahati Lukwebo with identifying new majority. Tshisekedi also pursued efforts to reinforce his grip on army and police, meeting with several senior security officials throughout month. Meanwhile, violence continued in east. In North Kivu province’s Beni territory, suspected armed group Allied Democratic Forces 6-22 Dec killed at least 40 civilians in multiple attacks, including at least 21 night of 11-12 Dec in Bolema area, Rwenzori sector. Unidentified gunmen 6 Dec killed eight civilians in North Kivu’s capital Goma. In Ituri province’s Djugu territory, suspected armed group Cooperative for the Development of Congo (CODECO) 7 Dec killed five civilians in Baijate village; CODECO 20 Dec clashed with armed forces in Muvramu village, leaving two civilians and one CODECO combatant dead; in joint attack, CODECO and Patriotic and Integrationist Front of Congo (FPIC) overnight 21-22 Dec killed three in Gbalana village. Elsewhere in Ituri, armed forces 16 Dec clashed with FPIC in Komanda town, Irumu territory, leaving eight militiamen and one soldier dead. In Tanganyika province, ethnic Twa militia 21 Dec killed one and injured several civilians in Kintu locality. UN Security Council 18 Dec renewed UN mission (MONUSCO) mandate for one year.
Reports of Eritrean involvement in fighting in neighbouring Ethiopia’s regional state of Tigray kept emerging. As fighting continued between forces of Ethiopia’s federal govt and Tigray (see Ethiopia), Tigray President Debretsion Gebremichael 4 Dec again accused Asmara of supporting Addis Ababa’s military offensive, saying that “Eritrean soldiers are everywhere”; Eritrean FM Osman Saleh next day denied involvement, denounced “propaganda.” Evidence of Eritrean soldiers’ presence and involvement in hostilities in Tigray, including in state capital Mekelle, also reported by aid workers, UN and EU officials. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi 11 Dec said UN refugee agency had received “an overwhelming number of disturbing reports of Eritrean refugees in Tigray being killed, abducted and forcibly returned to Eritrea”. Eritrean delegation led by Saleh and presidential adviser Yemane Gebreab 8 Dec travelled to Sudan and met with Sovereign Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to discuss Ethiopia-Tigray conflict and impact on regional stability. Amid Sudan’s efforts to reclaim territories on border between Sudan’s Al-Qadarif state and Ethiopia’s Amhara region, Eritrea late Dec reportedly moved troops toward its border with Sudan.
Violence erupted in disputed border area with Sudan, deadly fighting continued in Tigray region and intercommunal clashes killed hundreds in Benishangul-Gumuz region. Sudanese military early Dec reclaimed territory in disputed Al-Fashqa area on border between Ethiopia’s Amhara region and Sudan’s Al-Qadarif state. Ethiopian gunmen 15 Dec killed at least four Sudanese troops in Al-Fashqa. Border demarcation talks between Sudan and Ethiopia 22-23 Dec failed to yield agreement. In following days, Sudan allegedly made further territorial gains in Al-Fashqa and Al-Quraisha border regions, 31 Dec said its forces had taken control over all border territory it accuses Ethiopia of encroaching upon. Ethiopia 29 Dec warned Sudan of counter-offensive if it “does not stop expanding into Ethiopian territories”. Despite PM Abiy declaring victory in Nov, fighting continued between Tigray’s and federal govt’s forces. Tigray President and former ruling party Tigray People’s Liberation Front leader Debretsion Gebremichael 4 Dec again accused neighbouring Eritrea of supporting federal govt’s military offensive in Tigray (see Eritrea). UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 9 Dec expressed concern over “ethnic profiling” and “hate speech” against ethnic Tigrayans in rest of country. Tigray’s transitional govt – established by federal parliament’s upper house in Nov – took office 13 Dec. In Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, suspected members of armed group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) 8 Dec killed at least ten ethnic Amhara civilians in Metekel zone; attack by suspected ethnic Gumuz gunmen 23 Dec killed at least 207 mostly Amhara and Shinasha civilians and displaced more than 40,000 in Metekel. In Oromia region in centre, suspected OLA combatants mid-Dec killed at least 19 mostly ethnic Amhara civilians in Horo Guduru Wellega and West Wellega zones; local authorities 16 Dec claimed security operations had killed some 400 OLA combatants in recent weeks. Clashes in border area between Afar and Somali regions late Dec reportedly left several dozen dead. Electoral board 25 Dec scheduled legislative and regional elections for 5 June 2021; said it would announce poll date for Tigray later on.
President Condé was sworn in for controversial third term, and intercommunal violence erupted in south east. Condé 15 Dec took presidential oath for third term, called for unity and end to violence. Opposition remained divided and continued to lose momentum. Main opposition leader and presidential runner-up Cellou Dalein Diallo boycotted swearing-in ceremony and denounced it as “sham”, while several other opposition figures attended. Coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC), at forefront of mobilisation against third term since 2019, same day failed to mobilise supporters for protest in capital Conakry against Condé’s alleged “constitutional coup”. Territorial administration and decentralisation Minister Bouréma Condé 11 Dec warned that govt would not tolerate any “breach of the peace”. Authorities 30 Dec reportedly prevented Diallo from leaving country to attend funeral of late Malian opposition leader Soumaïla Cissé. Meanwhile, international community increased pressure on govt to address human rights violations by security forces and stop muzzling opposition. U.S. embassy in Guinea 11 Dec urged authorities to build “more democratic society”. NGO Human Rights Watch 14 Dec called on govt to stop “relentless crackdown” on opposition, and NGO Amnesty International next day urged govt to investigate killings of opposition protesters and others around Oct presidential election. EU Commission 19 Dec called for independent investigation into 17 Dec death in custody of opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) youth leader, Roger Bamba, and release of all political prisoners. Intercommunal violence erupted in Macenta city (south east): ethnic Toma and Manian residents 26-27 Dec clashed over control of cheftaincy, reportedly leaving over 20 dead and dozens more wounded.
Authorities issued international arrest warrant against opposition leader and intercommunal violence broke out near capital Bissau. Attorney General’s Office 18 Dec said it had issued international arrest warrant against runner-up in 2019 presidential election and leader of main opposition African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), Domingos Simões Pereira, without elaborating on charges against him; Pereira, who went into exile in Portugal in early 2020, had early Dec announced his intention to resume political activity in Guinea-Bissau. UN mission Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) ended 31 Dec; UNIOGBIS Head Rosine Sori-Coulibaly mid-Dec said UN would continue to guarantee safety of former PM Aristides Gomes, who took refuge in UN mission headquarters in early 2020. Meanwhile, President Embaló 16 Dec threatened to dissolve National Assembly and call for early legislative elections, due to boycott by PAIGC deputies of parliamentary session on 2021 budget. Intercommunal violence erupted near Bissau: ethnic Yunkun and Thun communities 29 Dec clashed over land dispute in Nhoma town, 25km north of Bissau, leaving at least four dead and several wounded.
Tensions rose with Somalia, with both countries deploying troops to shared border, while Al-Shabaab intensified attacks in north and east. President Kenyatta mid-Dec received President Bihi of Somalia’s breakaway state Somaliland in capital Nairobi; counterparts announced that Kenya would open consulate in Somaliland’s capital and that Somaliland would upgrade its liaison office in Nairobi by March; during Bihi’s visit, Somalia 15 Dec cut diplomatic relations with Kenya for “constantly interfering” in its internal affairs. In following days, both Kenya and Somalia reportedly deployed forces along common border to Mandera county and Gedo region respectively. Somalia 19 Dec accused Kenya of hosting and arming Somali militia to launch cross-border attacks and said it would take “all necessary steps” to protect its “territorial integrity”. Kenyatta and Somalia President Farmajo 20 Dec met during summit of regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development. Djibouti 25 Dec deployed fact-finding mission to assess situation at Somalia-Kenya border. In Garissa county in east, Al-Shabaab 2 Dec attacked Amuma police station, injuring police officer. In Wajir county in north east, Al-Shabaab 18 Dec abducted local official in Gumarey sub-location and later beheaded him. In Lamu county in east, Al-Shabaab 20 Dec ambushed police escort vehicle on Lamu-Gamba road, no casualties reported; security forces 27 Dec shot and killed seven Al-Shabaab militants in Boni forest. In Mandera county in north east, Al-Shabaab 29 Dec ambushed ambulance, killing civilian. In border area between Garissa and Isiolo counties, clashes between ethnic Borana and Somali 1 Dec left seven dead. In Mombasa county in south, police 1 Dec arrested 91 suspected members of separatist Mombasa Republican Council in Mirironi village. Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga’s signature campaign to trigger referendum on constitutional reform concluded 4 Dec; electoral commission 30 Dec started to verify signatures.
Violence continued unabated in centre, infighting between rival jihadist groups persisted in north, and tensions surrounded formation of interim legislative body. Jihadist and intercommunal violence continued in centre. Jihadist group Katiba Macina 9 Dec attacked Dogon militia Dana Ambassagou in Songho area, Mopti region, killing five militiamen. Explosive device 28 Dec killed three French soldiers in Hombori area, also Mopti region; al-Qaeda-linked Group to Support Islam and Muslims (JNIM) later claimed responsibility. In neighbouring Ségou region, High Islamic Council early Dec led mediation between jihadists and ethnic Bambara hunters around Farabougou village, which has been under jihadist siege since Oct; jihadists insisted on Bambara hunters’ disarmament and compliance with Sharia law; EU Commission 2 Dec reported conflict around Farabougou had displaced around 17,000 people. In northern Timbuktu region, infighting between JNIM and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) 12 Dec left at least 15 ISGS and five JNIM combatants dead near N’Daki village. Also in north, airstrikes by French Operation Barkhane 1 Dec killed unspecified number of JNIM combatants on Ansongo-Ménaka axis, and 10 Dec reportedly killed six JNIM militants in Diay area, Timbuktu region. Interim govt 3 Dec published list of 121 members of newly formed legislative body National Transitional Council (CNT). Coalition of opposition and civil society groups (M5-RFP) next day announced boycott of CNT over lack of power sharing, said interim govt violated constitution and transition charter by unilaterally appointing members instead of letting political parties and social groupings select their representatives; some actors however supported and joined CNT, including members of M5-RFP and former PM Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga. CNT 5 Dec elected Colonel Malick Diaw, VP of military junta’s governing body, as CNT president. Public prosecutor’s office 31 Dec reportedly charged six public figures, including former PM Boubou Cissé, with “coup attempt” over reported allegations that they plotted to “destabilise” transitional institutions. Main opposition leader Soumaïla Cissé 25 Dec died of COVID-19 in France; Cissé was released in Oct after being held hostage for six months by jihadist militants.
Islamist insurgents moved closer to liquefied natural gas (LNG) site in far north, forcing international oil company to evacuate staff. In far north Cabo Delgado province, Islamist insurgents increasingly targeted strategic towns, moving toward Afungi peninsula where LNG project is located. In Palma district, Islamist insurgents 7 Dec attacked Mute town, 20km from LNG site, and clashed with security forces, reportedly killing soldier; insurgents next day moved to Ngueo town, 2km north of Mute, forcing unknown number of civilians to flee to Palma town; 29 Dec killed five in Olumbe and Monjane villages few kilometres away from LNG site, and two soldiers in ambush on Monjane-Patacua axis on edge of Afungi peninsula. Following attacks, French oil and gas company Total late Dec started to evacuate staff from LNG facility. In neighbouring Nangade district, insurgents 8 Dec ambushed vehicle near Pundanhar town on Palma-Nangade axis, killing civilian, kidnapping two others and temporarily closing route to Palma; 12 Dec killed at least 14 civilians in several villages. In Macomia district, insurgents 10 Dec kidnapped unspecified number of fishermen in Mucojo town, released them few days later; next day killed at least four in Chai area. Southern African Development Community (SADC) Defence and Security Troika 14 Dec met with President Nyusi and Tanzania’s President Magufuli in capital Maputo to discuss security situation in Cabo Delgado; extraordinary summit of SADC heads of state and govt scheduled for 21 Jan. Meanwhile, number two of opposition Renamo party’s armed dissident faction Renamo Military Junta (JMR), Joao Machava, 6 Dec demobilised in Mabote district, Inhambane province (south). JMR leader Mariano Nhongo 11 Dec accused security forces of kidnapping six of his family members in past few days in Gondola district, Manica province (west); 23 Dec announced unilateral ceasefire, promised to negotiate with govt. Elsewhere in Manica province, armed individuals dressed in police uniforms 13 Dec kidnapped former Renamo party MP Sofrimento Matequenha from his home in provincial capital Chimoio; police same day denied abduction; Matequenha’s body found 24 Dec in Pindanganga village, 60km north east of Chimoio.
Ahead of 27 Dec general elections, jihadists launched one of deadliest attacks on civilians in years, leaving dozens killed. In Diffa region (south east), Boko Haram (BH) faction led by Abubakar Shekau (JAS) 12 Dec launched one of deadliest attacks on local population in years in Toumour village, killing at least 27 civilians and wounding dozens more. Earlier in month in Diffa, BH splinter group Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) combatants 11 Dec stormed domicile of canton chief in Chetimari village, leaving civilian dead; suspected jihadists same day raided Kindjandi town, leaving civilian dead. Jihadists also maintained attacks against security forces in Tillabery region (south west). Notably, suspected Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) combatants 1 Dec killed soldier near Banizoumbou village, Filingué department; suspected al-Qaeda-linked Group to Support Islam and Muslims (JNIM) combatants 4 Dec killed two forest guards and wounded three soldiers near La Tapoa town, Say department; clashes between suspected jihadists and security forces 28 Dec left seven soldiers and 11 jihadists dead in Taroun area, Ouallam department. Also in Tillabery, security forces early Dec reportedly killed several Fulani civilians suspected of supporting jihadists in Abala area, Filingué department, and Banibangou area, Ouallam department, while residents in Mogodyougou town, Ouallam department, 8 Dec killed two suspected ISGS combatants. In neighbouring Dosso region, suspected ISGS combatants 3 Dec killed civilian in Rouda Peulh village, Dogon Doutchi department, sparking concerns over ISGS’s expansion southward from Tillabery region. Meanwhile, ahead of 27 Dec general elections, presidential candidates Salou Djibo and Seini Oumarou 16 Dec reiterated doubts over ruling-party candidate Mohamed Bazoum’s nationality, thereby questioning his eligibility. Opposition leader Hama Amadou – barred from running for president by Constitutional Court in Nov – 22 Dec called on supporters to vote for former President Mahamane Ousmane. Vote held 27 Dec without major incidents.
Jihadist and criminal violence continued in north east and north west, while authorities came under international scrutiny. Boko Haram (BH) factions continued to launch attacks in north-eastern Borno state despite ongoing military operations. BH combatants 7-30 Dec killed at least 24 security personnel, one civilian and abducted at least 38 people including two aid workers in Damboa, Konduga, Jakana, Mafa and Jere areas. Army 6-8 Dec killed 13 combatants apparently from BH faction led by Abubakar Shekau (JAS) in Magumeri, Bama and Gwoza areas; airstrikes 11 Dec killed “several” JAS combatants in Gwoza area; army next day repelled attack in Askira-Uba area by same faction, killing over 20 combatants. Suspected JAS suicide attack 19 Dec killed three civilians in Konduga town. BH 24 Dec killed 11 civilians in Pemi village. Armed group violence and abductions continued in north west, particularly Katsina state: gunmen 11 Dec stormed secondary school in Kankara town and abducted over 300 schoolboys; govt and local security officials immediately blamed attack on criminal groups but Shekau 15 Dec claimed responsibility; schoolboys released 17 Oct. Also in Katsina, armed group 17 Dec attacked convoy of traditional and religious ruler from Kaura Namoda town (Zamfara state), in Funtua area, killing eight guards; 19 Dec briefly kidnapped about 80 Islamic school students in Dandume area. In Niger state (Middle Belt), armed groups 8-15 Dec killed four and abducted around 30 civilians, prompting 5,000 others to flee. In Enugu state (south east), unidentified gunmen 26 Dec killed Oruku community’s traditional chief in Nkanu East area. Federal parliament 1 Dec summoned President Buhari over insecurity in north, reflecting rising discontent including within ruling party; Buhari rejected convocation, claiming lawmakers lack power to summon him on security matters. Meanwhile, govt suffered international setbacks. U.S. 7 Dec designated Nigeria as “country of particular concern” with regard to religious freedom, paving way for sanctions. Office of International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor 11 Dec said there is “reasonable basis to believe” that both BH and security forces have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in Nigeria, concluded ICC investigation is warranted.
Electoral disputes delayed Dec legislative polls and threatened to derail Feb presidential election; tensions rose with Kenya. Federal electoral commission – whose members opposition considers to be loyalists of President Farmajo – 5 Dec appointed chairperson, prompting opposition bloc of 14 presidential candidates to appoint parallel electoral body. Opposition protests 15 Dec resulted in clashes with security forces, reportedly leaving several injured in capital Mogadishu. After missing 10 Dec deadline for conclusion of federal parliament’s upper house election – due to Jubaland and Puntland’s refusal to appoint regional electoral commissions – federal electoral commission 23 Dec postponed upper house poll to late Dec-early Jan and said selection of delegates tasked with electing lower house would begin 7 Jan; opposition bloc of presidential candidates same day rejected new timetable; federal electoral commission 29 Dec again postponed upper house poll early to mid-Jan. Mandate of federal parliament expired 27 Dec. Somalia 15 Dec cut diplomatic ties with Kenya for “constantly interfering” in its internal affairs; move coincided with Somaliland President Bihi’s visit to Kenya during which he and Kenyan President Kenyatta announced that Kenya would open consulate in Somaliland’s capital and that Somaliland would upgrade its liaison office in Kenya by March. In subsequent days, both Somalia and Kenya reportedly deployed troops to their shared border. Mogadishu 19 Dec accused Kenya of hosting and arming Somali militia to launch cross-border attacks and said it would take “all necessary steps” to protect its “territorial integrity”. Farmajo and Kenyatta 20 Dec met during summit of regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); Mogadishu reportedly asked IGAD to establish commission to look into its complaints, including arming of Somali militia. Djibouti 25 Dec deployed fact-finding mission to assess situation at Somalia-Kenya border. In Hirshabelle state, clan militia opposed to last month’s state presidential election outcome 4 Dec clashed with federal govt forces in Hiraan regional capital Beledweyne, leaving at least two injured. Al-Shabaab continued to launch deadly attacks. Notably, Al-Shabaab suicide bombing 18 Dec killed 21, mostly civilians, in Mudug region’s capital Galkayo. U.S. 4 Dec announced it would “reposition” most of its troops in Somalia to neighbouring countries by early 2021.
Somaliland and Kenya announced they would upgrade diplomatic ties. President Bihi and Kenyan President Kenyatta mid-Dec met in Kenya, announced that Kenya would open consulate in capital Hargeisa and that Somaliland would “upgrade” its liaison office in Kenyan capital Nairobi by March. During Bihi’s visit, Somalia – which considers Somaliland as one of its member states – cut diplomatic relations with Kenya, accusing it of meddling in its internal affairs (see Kenya, Somalia). Bihi 19 Dec received Malawi FM, discussed ways to deepen bilateral relations. Bihi and Djibouti President Guelleh 29 Dec announced reopening of their shared border after six-year closure. Registration of voters for parliamentary and local elections, which have been postponed several times since 2019 and are now planned for May, continued throughout month. In Sanaag region in east, Al-Shabaab militants 10 Dec abducted several people in Milxo village; 21 Dec released them.
Govt and former rebel opposition groups agreed to end stalemate over formation of state and county govts in all but one state; meanwhile intercommunal violence continued. Govt and former rebel opposition groups 9 Dec agreed to move forward with formation of state and county govts, except in contested Upper Nile state, as well as with reconstitution of national legislature; parties agreed to organise peace and reconciliation conference to bring together Upper Nile communities prior to appointment of state governor, over which President Salva Kiir and former rebel leader turned VP Riek Machar have been at odds since June; Machar mid-Dec, however, indefinitely postponed conference. Kiir 30 Dec appointed six out of ten deputy state governors. In bid to reassert control over Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO), Machar 1-5 Dec organised national party conference; dissent has been mounting in SPLA-IO’s ranks over slow implementation of Sept 2018 peace agreement. Regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development 20 Dec formally confirmed there are no travel restrictions on Machar. Govt and holdout rebel group National Salvation Front early Dec held talks in Italy’s capital Rome but failed to reach breakthrough on draft ten-point Declaration of Principles aimed at guiding future political negotiations. In Central Equatoria state in south, Kiir’s forces and SPLA-IO clashed several times throughout month in Kajo-Keji county. In Western Equatoria state in south, unidentified gunmen 16 Dec reportedly attacked SPLA-IO in Mvolo county. In Upper Nile state in east, unidentified gunmen mid-Dec reportedly attacked SPLA-IO in Maban county. Meanwhile, intercommunal violence persisted across country. In Central Equatoria state, cattle-related violence killed at least 43 throughout month in Terekeka and Lainya counties. In Lakes state in centre, cattle raids and intercommunal violence throughout month killed at least 29 in Yirol east, Cueibet and Awerial counties. In Warrap state, also in centre, intercommunal clashes mid-Dec left seven dead in Tonj North county.
Military clashed with Ethiopian forces in disputed border region and reclaimed large swathes of territory. Sudan’s military early Dec reclaimed territory in disputed Al-Fashqa area on border between Sudan’s Al-Qadarif state and Ethiopia’s Amhara region. Ethiopian gunmen 15 Dec killed at least four Sudanese troops and wounded 20 in Al-Fashqa. Sudan subsequently deployed reinforcements and seized more land in area. Following unsuccessful talks 22-23 Dec between Sudan and Ethiopia to demarcate border, Sudan made further territorial gains in Al-Fashqa and Al-Qureisha border regions. Addis Ababa 29 Dec warned Sudan of counter-offensive if it “does not stop expanding into Ethiopian territories”. Khartoum 31 Dec said its forces had taken control over all border territory it accuses Ethiopia of encroaching upon. In Central and South Darfur states, clashes over gold mining territory between rival factions of holdout rebel group Sudan Liberation Movement/Army led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) and fighting with govt troops early Dec displaced over 27,000 and left two children dead. In South Darfur state, intercommunal clashes late Dec killed at least 25 in several areas. UN Security Council 22 Dec voted to end mandate of UN-AU mission in Darfur (UNAMID) on 31 Dec. On second anniversary of uprising that led to ouster of former President Bashir, thousands 19 Dec demonstrated in capital Khartoum and across country, demanding acceleration of democratic reforms. Also in Khartoum, thousands 29 Dec attended funeral of individual reportedly tortured to death mid-Dec while in paramilitary Rapid Support Forces custody. U.S. 14 Dec formally removed Sudan’s State Sponsor of Terrorism designation. Ethiopia and Sudan 13 Dec agreed to resume negotiations on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Russia 1 Dec signed agreement with Sudan to establish naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast.
Opposition party Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT) formed unity govt with ruling party on semi-autonomous Zanzibar archipelago. President Magufuli, who was re-elected in late Oct, 5 Dec unveiled cabinet consisting of 23 ministers and 23 deputy ministers. On semi-autonomous Zanzibar archipelago, ACT 6 Dec agreed to form unity govt with ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party; Zanzibar’s President Hussein Mwinyi same day appointed ACT’s national chairman Seif Sharif Hamad as Zanzibar’s first VP; Hamad sworn in 8 Dec. ACT and other opposition party Civic United Front 20 Dec accused police of killing ACT official and wounding several other people previous day during security operation in Kibutuka village, Lindi region in south; regional police commander 21 Dec denied allegations. VP Samia Suluhu 14 Dec attended Southern Africa regional bloc SADC Defence and Security Troika in Mozambique’s capital Maputo to discuss Islamist insurgency in neighbouring country; extraordinary summit of SADC heads of state and govt scheduled for Jan (see Mozambique).
Political tensions ran high ahead of 14 Jan general elections, and violent crackdown on opposition could further escalate in coming weeks. Police 1 Dec fired tear gas and rubber bullets at opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) leader and presidential hopeful Bobi Wine and his supporters in Kayunga district, leaving several injured; security forces same day blocked Wine and supporters on their way to campaign venue in neighbouring Jinja district, reportedly firing live bullets at Wine’s car. Ruling party National Resistance Movement (NRM) supporters 4 Dec clashed with opposition Democratic Party (DP) supporters in Kyotera district; police reportedly intervened, killing DP supporter and injuring at least two others. Police 4 and 27 Dec arrested Forum for Democratic Change presidential candidate Patrick Amuriat Oboi for allegedly disobeying police orders in Bushenyi district and violating COVID-19-related campaign ban in Jinja district, respectively. Security forces 27 Dec clashed with Wine and his supporters in Masaka district, leaving Wine’s bodyguard dead and at least two journalists injured. Police 30 Dec arrested Wine in Kalangala district on grounds of COVID-19-related campaign ban, sparking protests; police reportedly fired tear gas to disperse crowd. Govt early Dec froze bank accounts of at least four NGOs involved in election-monitoring activities; after 9 Dec asked U.S.-based technology company Google to shut down 14 YouTube channels for allegedly inciting riots, Google representative 16 Dec said removal of channels would require court order. Uganda Media Council 10 Dec directed all journalists to reapply for accreditation in order “to sanitise the industry”, prompting outcry from Uganda Editors’ Guild and African Centre for Media Excellence. President Museveni 16 Dec appointed his son Lieutenant General Muhoozi Kainerugaba to head of Special Forces Command. Police 22 Dec arrested prominent human rights lawyer and activist Nicholas Opiyo in Kampala on suspicions of money laundering along with three other lawyers and NUP official; High Court 30 Dec released Opiyo on bail. UN human rights experts 29 Dec urged govt to curb “election-related violence” and “crackdown” on political opponents and activists.
Authorities continued to harass govt critics and opposition, and political parties held contested internal elections. Police 4 Dec detained Tendai Biti, VP of Nelson Chamisa’s faction of main opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-A), on charges of assault; Biti released on bail next day; opening of trial set for 18 Jan. Authorities 14 Dec arrested mayor of capital Harare and prominent MDC-A official Jacob Mafume on allegations of witness tampering; court 17 Dec denied him bail; Mafume was previously arrested 25 Nov on corruption charges and granted bail 8 Dec. Govt 28 Dec suspended Mafume, deputy mayor Luckson Mukunguma and four other councillors on allegations of incompetence and misconduct of duty. High Court 15 Dec overturned magistrate’s Aug ruling barring prominent human rights lawyer from representing investigative journalist Hopewell Chin’ono. Security forces 24 Dec arrested National Patriotic Front member and former pro-ruling party ZANU-PF Chipangano gang leader Jim Kunaka in Harare over allegations of inciting violence in run-up to 31 July anti-corruption protests; judge 29 Dec denied him bail. In Thokozani Khupe’s faction of MDC (MDC-T) extraordinary congress in Harare 27 Dec, Douglas Mwonzora was elected MDC-T leader; Khupe immediately alleged fraud,threatening to file Supreme Court application seeking annulment of results. Tensions subsided after Mwonzora 29-30 Dec appointed Khupe and other rival candidates Morgan Komichi and Elias Mudzuri to senior executive positions. ZANU-PF 5-6 Dec held district coordinating committee (DCC) elections in eight provinces; DCCs had been dissolved in 2012. ZANU-PF elections reportedly marred by fraud and violence, prompting several reruns; notably, riots erupted in Mutare city as party members burned ballot boxes amid allegations of vote-rigging and buying.
High-intensity violence persisted and intra-Afghan peace talks remained delayed ahead of planned U.S. military drawdown in Jan. Taliban continued to attack district centres in Kunduz, Farah, Uruzgan, Baghlan and elsewhere despite previous self-imposed restrictions regarding reprisals in urban areas. Unclaimed killings and smaller explosions continued to target activists, journalists and other non-combatants around capital Kabul; unknown gunmen 22 Dec attacked vehicle of govt-employed doctors who treat prisoners (including Taliban and Islamic State fighters) at Pul-e Charkhi prison. In Ghazni province, attack 18 Dec killed at least 15 civilians, mostly children, and wounded 20 others; car bomb in Kabul targeting Afghan parliament member Khan Mohammad Wardak 20 Dec killed at least ten civilians and wounded 52 others. Islamic State’s Khorasan Province branch (IS-KP) claimed responsibility for several attacks, including shooting of journalist Malala Maiwand in Jalalabad city on 10 Dec. IS-KP also claimed multiple attacks in Kabul, notably rocket attacks 12 Dec that killed one and injured two, and additional rockets 10 Dec that targeted U.S. Bagram Airfield. Meanwhile, in positive step, govt finalised formation of High Council of National Reconciliation, which 5 Dec convened for first time. Despite initial progress in intra-Afghan talks, U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad 14 Dec announced both negotiating teams would take 20 days to “consult on the agenda items”, delaying intra-Afghan negotiations until 5 Jan. Agendas leaked 20-21 Dec illustrated stark differences between govt and Taliban regarding fundamental purpose of talks; notably, govt reportedly proposed ceasefire as first topic, while Taliban proposed it as final topic. Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Christopher Miller 22 Dec arrived in Kabul in unannounced visit and met with President Ghani, as U.S. military proceeded to reduce its forces from 4,500 to 2,500 in Jan in line with announcement made in Nov.
Govt began moving Rohingya refugees to island in Bay of Bengal despite concerns over living conditions, while violence broke out in Chittagong Hill Tracts. Govt 3-4 Dec transported 1,642 Rohingya refugees from Cox’s Bazar district to Bhasan Char island – silt island in Bay of Bengal – despite concerns of UN, donor govts and international organisations that it is prone to flooding and lacks services, and amid allegations that some refugees had been coerced to go. Ahead of transfer, UN statement 2 Dec called on govt to allow refugees “to make a free and informed decision” about relocating and to provide them with basic services and free movement “to and from the mainland”. MFA 4 Dec emphasised that relocation was part of broader repatriation plan and called on human rights groups to help create “a conducive environment” within Myanmar to allow for a “quick, safe and dignified repatriation”; govt 29 Dec proceeded to transfer second batch of 1,804 refugees to island. Meanwhile, sporadic violence erupted in three districts of Chittagong Hill Tracts 23 years after Parabatya Jana Samhati Samity, representing ethnic minority groups, and then Awami League govt signed 1997 peace accord. Authorities accused armed groups opposing peace accord of factional violence and attacks on Bengali settlers and security forces, including shootout with military 3 Dec that allegedly killed member of anti-accord group United Peoples Democratic Front in Rangamati district; police 13 Dec accused armed hill militants of attacking security forces in Rangamati district, resulting in one attacker killed. NGO Amnesty International 11 Dec said lack of progress in implementing human rights provisions of peace accord behind local grievances. Indian border forces 7 and 14 Dec killed three Bangladeshi cattle smugglers; opposition Bangladesh National Party’s secretary general 14 Dec announced intention to hold countrywide protests against Indian security forces’ “indiscriminate killings” of Bangladeshis, holding ruling Awami League’s policy toward India responsible for deaths. PM Hasina 17 Dec hosted virtual summit with India’s PM Modi during which both leaders signed seven agreements on bilateral cooperation and directed border forces “to work towards bringing such border incidents to zero”.
Tensions persisted between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea, while Tokyo continued security engagement with broad range of international stakeholders. Amid increased Chinese military activity in East and South China Seas, Japan, France and U.S. 6 Dec confirmed they would hold joint land and sea military drills in May 2021 for first time on one of Japan’s outlying islands. Japanese Ground Self-Defence Force and U.S. military 2-15 Dec held traditional large-scale joint military drill in southwestern Japan and 7 Dec launched separate exercise north west of Japan’s capital Tokyo; both drills focused on repelling attacks on remote islands. Four Chinese H-6K and two Russian Tu-95 bombers 22 Dec took part in joint patrol over Sea of Japan and East China Sea; Japanese Air Self-Defence Force scrambled fighters to monitor bombers. Japanese media reported that two Chinese ships 26 Dec entered Japanese territorial waters near disputed Senkaku Islands; Japanese Coast Guard Service urged violators to leave country's territorial waters. Chinese National Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and Japanese counterpart Nobuo Kishi 14 Dec discussed via videoconference ongoing tensions in disputed East China Sea; Kyodo News reported that Kishi expressed concerns over Chinese ships “repeatedly sailing close to and entering the waters” around Senkaku Islands, while both ministers reiterated commitment to establish hotline between their officials. Kishi 15 Dec held online talks with German counterpart Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, during which he called on Berlin to send vessel to participate in joint exercises with Japanese Self-Defence Force units in 2021. Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Kishi 22 Dec discussed regional security situation during phone conversation, including East and South China Seas, and reaffirmed continued close cooperation
Uttar Pradesh state authorities launched crackdown on alleged forced conversion to Islam, and anti-Maoist security operations continued. In Uttar Pradesh state, governed by ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), police 3 Dec made first arrest under recently approved law criminalising forced religious conversion by marriage; law seeks to curb so-called “love jihad”, conspiracy theory according to which Muslim men marry Hindu women to convert them to Islam in order to alter country’s demographic balance; police arrested 49 individuals in 12 cases throughout month. Also run by BJP, Madhya Pradesh state govt 29 Dec cleared similar bill, still to be approved by state governor. Right-wing Hindu groups 25-31 Dec organised rallies in Madhya Pradesh state, reportedly leading to clashes with Muslims in Ujjain district 25 Dec and vandalized mosque in Indore district 29 Dec; authorities arrested nearly 50 individuals. Meanwhile, anti-Maoist security operations and Maoist violence continued. In Chhattisgarh state (centre), Maoists 2-29 Dec killed three civilians and one police officer in Bijapur, Sukma and Rajnandgaon districts; security forces 16 and 28 Dec shot and killed three Maoists in Sukma and Dantewada districts. In Madhya Pradesh state (centre), security forces 12 Dec shot and killed two Maoists in Balaghat district. In Odisha state (east), Maoists 17 Dec hacked to death civilian in Malkangiri district; security forces 11-12 Dec killed three Maoists in Kandhamal and Malkangiri districts. In Andhra Pradesh state (south east), Maoists 14 and 23 Dec killed two civilians in Visakhapatnam district. In Jharkhand state (east), security forces 16-22 Dec killed four Maoists in Latehar, West Singhbhum, Khunti and Ranchi districts. Tens of thousands of farmers continued to demonstrate throughout month on outskirts of capital New Delhi,demanding govt revoke contentious agriculture laws adopted in Sept they say will deregulate crops and reduce earnings; govt and farmers held several rounds of talks, reaching partial agreement 30 Dec. India’s reported COVID-19 cases 19 Dec surpassed 10mn. Amid border standoff with China, Indian and Chinese diplomats 18 Dec held talks but failed to make any breakthrough; both sides agreed to continue dialogue.
Military clashes persisted along Line of Control (LoC, dividing Pakistan and Indian-administered Kashmir), while tensions escalated in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) amid local elections. India 1 Dec claimed Pakistani cross-LoC fire killed oneborder security force officer. Pakistani military said Indian fire 9, 15, 23 and 30 Dec killed total of four soldiers. Pakistani MFA 18 Dec said Indian cross-LoC damaged two UN vehicles; India denied responsibility, UN same day said they were investigating. New Delhipolice 7 Dec arrested five suspected terrorists for alleged involvement in Pakistani attempt to link Kashmiri militant outfits with Sikh separatists. Pakistan’s armed forces 9 Dec reportedly on high alert following intelligence reports of India allegedly preparing an attack across LoC; Pakistan’s FM 18 Dec said that India plans “surgical strike against Pakistan”. In Indian-administered Kashmir, security forces 9 Dec killed two militants in Pulwama district; 13 Dec killed two militants and captured another in Poonch district, alleging theyhad infiltrated from Pakistan’s side of LoC to disrupt ongoing local elections which began 28 Nov. Militant attack on security forces 12 Dec killed two civilians in Baramulla district; 14 Dec attacked home of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader and former Hizbul Mujahideen militant Haji Parvez in regional capital Srinagar, killing one. J&K police 30 Dec announced death of three “terrorists” after 20-hour “encounter” with army on outskirts of Srinagar; families immediately protested outside police office, alleging all three were actually civilians. Opposition alliance accused govt of crackdown during local elections, which concluded 19 Dec with opposition alliance winning 112 of 280 seats. Notably, authorities 9 Dec placed former chief minister and PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti under house arrest for third time in two weeks; Mufti next day tweeted that armed forces were being used “to rig this election and favour a particular party”.In Anantnag district, police 10 Dec detained three journalists covering polls; militants 4 Dec also shot candidate. New Delhi 26 Dec arrested at least 75 Kashmiri political leaders and activists, placing them in “preventive detention” allegedly to pre-empt protests and violence.
Tensions persisted in Papua, while authorities banned hardline group Islamic Defenders Front. UN Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights 1 Dec called for full investigation into escalating violence against civilians and human rights defenders in Papua. Police same day reportedly arrested 15 demonstrators from Indonesian People’s Front for West Papua during protest in Sinjai, South Sulawesi province. United Liberation Movement for West Papua’s leader Benny Wenda 1 Dec announced establishment of provisional govt in exile in UK, with party declaring him interim president; govt called Wenda’s announcement “small-scale treason”, while West Papua Liberation Army and civilian faction West Papua National Committee early Dec both rejected declaration. In Papua province’s Merauke regency, security forces early to mid-Dec reportedly raided West Papua National Committee offices, and arrested 14 members on unknown charges, leaving several injured. Military police 25 Dec named nine soldiers in case pertaining to alleged torture to death of two civilians in Intan Jaya regency in April. Meanwhile, police 7 Dec killed six bodyguards of cleric Rizieq Shihab, leader of hardline group Islamic Defenders Front, after they allegedly attacked officers on outskirts of capital Jakarta; authorities 12 Dec arrested Rizieq for allegedly inciting people to breach COVID-19 regulations; govt 30 Dec banned Islamic Defenders Front referring to terrorism links and disturbance to public order.
South Korea protested Chinese and Russian military activity, U.S. accused China of violating UN sanctions, and Seoul criminalised sending propaganda balloons to North Korea. Four Chinese warplanes and 15 Russian aircraft 22 Dec entered Korea Air Defence Identification Zone (KADIZ) for alleged routine training, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff; South Korea’s military scrambled air force fighters in response, while South Korean MFA same day reportedly lodged protest with China and Russia; Chinese MFA next day responded that Chinese and Russian warplanes did not enter KADIZ. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for North Korea Alex Wong 1 Dec accused China of “flagrant violation” of its obligation to enforce UN sanctions regime, and announced U.S. was offering up to $5mn reward for information on Chinese sanctions evasion; U.S. 8 Dec imposed sanctions on several Chinese companies for allegedly helping Pyongyang export coal; Chinese MFA 23 Dec responded that govt had always implemented sanctions seriously. On final visit to Seoul 8-11 Dec, U.S. Deputy Sec State Stephen Biegun said North Korea had “squandered” opportunities for progress in negotiations over last two years, and called on Pyongyang to agree to “lay out a map for action” leading to denuclearisation. South Korean parliament 15 Dec approved controversial legislation criminalising flying of propaganda leaflets by balloon toward North Korea; minority opposition lawmakers boycotted vote, saying that govt was sacrificing freedom of expression; human rights groups rallied same day at National Assembly to protest bill. South Korean President Moon Jae-in 4 Dec nominated new ministers of interior, health, land and housing, and gender in effort to refresh administration amid backlash over housing policies, rising COVID-19 cases, and scandal involving justice ministry and top prosecutors. UN Security Council 11 Dec discussed human rights abuses in North Korea in closed-door virtual meeting after seven members raised issue, accusing Pyongyang of using COVID-19 pandemic “to crack down further on the human rights of its own people.”
Hostilities between Arakan Army (AA) and Tatmadaw paused in Rakhine State as parties initiated direct ceasefire talks. After two years of escalating hostilities in Rakhine State, AA and military informally halted fighting; move follows support by both sides last month to hold polls in all cancelled Rakhine State constituencies and pledge to cooperate to create conducive security environment. Direct talks between AA and Tatmadaw on formal ceasefire commenced late Nov with online meeting and 9 Dec continued with in-person talks hosted by China-backed armed group United Wa State Army in their headquarters in Pangsang city, Shan State; neither set of talks involved civilian govt. Court martial in Rakhine’s regional capital Sittwe 11 Dec sentenced three Tatmadaw soldiers to 20-year prison terms for rape of Rakhine woman in July.
PM KP Oli’s decision to dissolve parliament and schedule new elections triggered protests and political crisis. Months of internal tensions within ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) and increasing pressure on PM KP Oli to resign reached boiling point as Oli 20 Dec dissolved lower house of parliament and announced fresh elections for April/May 2021. The move, authorised by President Bidya Bhandari, drew widespread rebuke for violating 2015 constitution, called into question credibility of offices of PM and president, triggered protests across country and sparked period of political uncertainty. Oli’s decision to sack parliament followed his order (issued with immediate effect following presidential approval) 15 Dec to amend working procedures of Constitutional Council – tasked with making appointments to several key constitutional bodies – allowing PM to take decisions with quorum of three members, dispensing with previous consensus among five council members; both moves viewed as latest to consolidate power and centralise decision-making. Oli’s decision to dissolve parliament was immediately termed unconstitutional by other leaders, political parties, and civil society members for contravening 2015 constitution, which provides only limited pathways for parliamentary dissolution. Protesters late Dec held several mass demonstrations across country against dissolution and filed 13 writs at Supreme Court, which 25 Dec demanded written justification for move. Dissolution also widened NCP’s internal divisions; Oli’s faction 22 Dec expanded party’s central committee with 556 new members, while competing faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal same day removed Oli as party co-chair; disputes also emerged at provincial level as Dahal’s faction 27 Dec filed no-confidence motion against Oli-aligned chief minister in Province 1. Meanwhile, Guo Yezhou, vice minister of Communist Party of China’s International Department, 27-30 Dec visited capital Kathmandu, meeting several political leaders including PM and president reportedly to assess evolving political situation; earlier in month, Vijay Chauthaiwale, Foreign Cell chair of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party 10 Dec visited Nepal and met with PM Oli to discuss bilateral ties.
Tensions remained high between ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and opposition alliance, while deadly militant violence persisted. Political acrimony continued between PTI govt and Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), 11-party opposition alliance including Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Alliance 13 Dec held rally in Lahore city, defying govt’s COVID-19 ban on gatherings and disregarding police warnings of potential terrorist attacks by Pakistani Taliban. Govt 15 Dec decided to hold upcoming Senate elections in Feb instead of March 2021, when terms of 52 senators are due to expire, and decided to seek Supreme Court’s opinion on holding polls through open voting instead of secret ballot; opposition rejected both proposed changes, calling them “illegal”. Acting leader of parliamentary opposition, and Nawaz Sharif Muslim League’s former FM Khawaja Asif29 Dec detained on corruption charges; next day, Asif said arrest aimed at breaking party. Meanwhile, militant attacks continued. Police officer 2 Dec shot dead in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Bannu district; militant attack 23 Dec killed soldier in North Waziristan district. In Rawalpindi, explosion 4 Dec killed one and injured seven; counter-terrorism police 14 Dec arrested three Pakistani Taliban militants allegedly involved in explosion and claimed to have foiled an attack on Islamabad Stock Exchange. In Balochistan, five found dead 8 Dec in Kech district according to local police, allegedly resulting from clash with security forces; two civilians killed in 26 Dec bomb blast in Panjgur district, and seven soldiers same day killed in attack on check point in Harnai district; two paramilitary soldiers killed, 13 civilians injured in 29 Dec grenade attack in Kalat division. Police 17 Dec arrested three Laskhar-e-Islam terrorists accused of planning major attack on Christmas day in Peshawar; Sindhi separatist group claimed responsibility for two attacks on 15 Dec. Visiting U.S. Afghanistan peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad reportedly sought govt’s help to ensure intra-Afghan negotiations would not be further delayed. Taliban delegation from Qatar-based political office 16-18 Dec visited Islamabad; FM Qureshi met delegation calling for “reduction in violence leading to a ceasefire” but placed responsibility on all stakeholders, while PM Khan called for comprehensive political settlement.
Security forces clashed with militant groups in south as well as with communist rebels across country. In Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) in south, administration of Cotabato City 15 Dec was officially turned over to BARMM in accordance with Jan 2019 referendum. Clan violence continued at relatively lower levels than previous month, while clashes between insurgents and security forces remained at similar levels. In Maguindanao province, hostilities resumed between members of Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and military; elements of BIFF under Kagi Karialan 3 Dec attacked police station and fired shots toward military detachment in Datu Piang town; members of BIFF 9 Dec attacked military detachment in Shariff Aguak town and 13 Dec clashed with military in Northern Kabuntalan municipality; mortar shelling 15 Dec killed one civilian and injured six others in Datu Salibo and parts of Datu Unsay municipalities. In south, implementation of peace agreement with Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) remained delayed as main focus was on fighting COVID-19; total cases countrywide rose to over 467,000, with average of 1,000-2,000 new cases daily throughout month. Following military operations against elements of Islamic State-linked Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) last month, small clashes between soldiers and ASG militants continued in Zamboanga del Norte and Sulu provinces; military 2 Dec clashed with suspected militants in Sibuco municipality; clashes 17 Dec injured at least five soldiers in Patikul municipality; police raid same day killed one militant in Ipil municipality. Meanwhile, clashes between armed forces and communist New People’s Army (NPA) continued in Luzon in north, Visayas in centre and Mindanao in south with at least 27 combatants and civilians killed and three injured throughout month. On island of Negros, unknown gunmen on motorcycles 15 Dec shot and killed a female doctor and her husband who led community’s response to COVID-19 after they were linked to communist rebels.
Amid high-level military activity in region, tensions persisted between China on one hand, and U.S., Taiwan and claimant parties on the other. Amid strained relations between Australia and China, Chinese state news outlet Global Times 1 Dec called Australia “warhound of the US” and warned “its warships must not come to China’s coastal areas (…) or else it will swallow the bitter pills”. Following 14th ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) and 7th ADMM-Plus conference 10-11 Dec via video conference, all parties said in summary of discussions that they supported “maintenance of peace, stability, security, safety and freedom of navigation and overflight in and over the South China Sea” and would “settle all the disputes and differences peacefully in accordance with the international law”. Tensions heightened between Taiwan and China throughout month. Taiwan 20 Dec staged live-fire drill in Pratas Islands, Beijing-claimed northernmost islets of South China Sea (SCS), as part of anti-aircraft and anti-sea-landing exercise. Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy 21 Dec announced that newest carrier Shandong had sailed through Taiwan Strait on 20 Dec to hold stage exercises in SCS; Taiwan’s defence ministry said Shandong 17 Dec sailed from northern Chinese port of Dalian escorted by four warships; Taiwan 20 Dec sent six warships and eight aircraft to monitor Chinese ships (see Taiwan Strait). Beijing 22 Dec claimed its military had “expelled” U.S. Navy destroyer John S. McCain after it had “trespassed” in disputed waters near Spratly Islands in SCS; U.S. Navy 23 Dec called statement false and Chinese effort to assert its illegitimate claims. Following 21 Dec virtual summit between Indian PM Narendra Modi and Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc, both sides called for enhanced security and maritime cooperation for stability in Indo-Pacific region, as part of which Indian Navy Ship Kiltan 26-28 Dec undertook “passing exercise” with Vietnam People’s Navy in SCS.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa appointed loyalists to independent oversight commissions while govt’s COVID-19 policy vis-à-vis Muslims sparked outrage and small-scale protests. Parliamentary council – established under 20th amendment to constitution, which grants Gotabaya sweeping powers – early Dec rubber-stamped Gotabaya’s nominees to several independent oversight commissions, including Sri Lanka’s Human Rights Commission, National Election Commission and National Police Commission. In 10 Dec letter to govt, two UN special rapporteurs expressed concern that 20th constitutional amendment would damage country’s liberal and democratic institutions. Supreme Court 1 Dec dismissed multiple petitions challenging govt’s policy of cremating all COVID-19 victims, including Muslims, in contravention of Islamic burial practices. Cremation against parents’ wishes 9 Dec of 20-day old Muslim baby who died of COVID-19 sparked public outrage and small-scale protests against govt’s cremation policy in capital Colombo and across country’s Buddhist, Hindu and Christian communities, as well as in Europe, U.S. and Canada. Organisation of Islamic Cooperation 10 Dec expressed concern over Sri Lankan authorities “insisting on cremation” of Muslim COVID-19 victims. Maldivian govt 14 Dec announced it was considering request by Sri Lanka to bury remains of Sri Lankan Muslims in Maldives; Muslim activists and politicians rejected proposed arrangement and UN special rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief 16 Dec said it could further marginalise Muslims in Sri Lanka. U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation 15 Dec withdrew $480mn development assistance grant to Sri Lanka “due to lack of partner country engagement”.
Cross-strait tensions remained high amid intense Chinese and U.S. military activity. Taiwanese defence ministry claimed series of Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) during month, including: one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft and one Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft 9 and 21 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft 1, 2, 6, 7, 26 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft, one Y-8 tactical reconnaissance aircraft and one Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft 4 Dec; one Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft 10 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft 15 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft, one Y-8 electronic intelligence aircraft, one Y-9 electronic aircraft, and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft 16 Dec; one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft and one Y-8 electronic aircraft 20, 22, 24 Dec. In response, Taiwan scrambled jets, broadcast radio warnings and tracked planes with air defence system on each occasion. Meanwhile, U.S. continued military activity in region and support for Taiwan. U.S. govt 7 Dec notified Congress of new $280mn arms sale package to Taiwan. Aircraft spotters 14 Dec detected U.S. Navy surveillance drone flying within ADIZ. Chinese military 19 Dec said it had “tailed and monitored” guided missile destroyer USS Mustin as it passed through Taiwan Strait, denouncing such missions as “flirtatious glances to Taiwan independence forces”; U.S. Navy said warship had conducted “routine Taiwan Strait transit [...] in accordance with international law”. Two U.S. Navy destroyers, USS John S. McCain and USS Curtis Wilbur, 31 Dec conducted a rare “double transit” of Taiwan Strait. China 20 Dec sailed Shandong aircraft carrier through Taiwan Strait; Chinese navy 21 Dec said that Shandong was on its way to conduct drills in South China Sea; Taiwanese defence ministry same day said it had deployed six ships and eight types of aircraft to monitor situation. Japanese State Minister of Defence Yasuhide Nakayama 25 Dec called on U.S. President-elect Joe Biden to “be strong” in supporting Taiwan, referring to country’s safety as “red line.”
Authorities reactivated lèse-majesté law prohibiting criticism of monarchy in crackdown against anti-govt demonstrators; sporadic violence continued in deep south. Local human rights organisation Thai Lawyers for Human Rights confirmed that as of 17 Dec at least 33 people, including one minor, were charged with lèse-majesté, suggesting renewed use of dormant law after three-year hiatus as means of cracking down on dissenters. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet 18 Dec condemned use of law, particularly against minors. In capital Bangkok, thousands of anti-govt protesters continued to gather throughout month. Following Constitutional Court decision 2 Dec that unanimously cleared PM Prayuth Chan-ocha of any conflict of interest with respect to his use of govt-owned house on 1st Infantry Regiment base, protesters seized on issue as another example of double-standard justice, with some 5,000 rallying at Lad Phrao junction that evening. Protesters 10 Dec rallied at Democracy Monument, 14 October 1973 Memorial, and UN Bangkok Headquarters; small IED bomb same day exploded well in advance of rally at 14 October 1973 Memorial, causing minor damage to structure; protest leader Anon Nampa 14 Dec told reporters that protesters would take break for remainder of year and resume rallies in 2021. Late 31 Dec, small pipe detonated in Bangkok where pro-democracy activists were selling prawns to help farmers affected by COVID-19 pandemic; four people suffered minor injuries. Group of nine U.S. senators 3 Dec introduced resolution in support of Thailand’s pro-democracy movement, urging govt to “immediately and unconditionally release political activists and refrain from harassing, intimidating, or persecuting those engaged in peaceful protests”; FM Don Pramudwinai 17 Dec said in response that resolution was “work of lobbyists”. In deep south, two motorcycle gunmen, dressed as women, 8 Dec shot and killed police officer in Khok Pho district, Pattani province; several gunmen 11 Dec shot and killed Muslim assistant village headman at his home in Raman district, Yala province. Govt 20 Dec held provincial elections in first test of democracy since 2019 general elections, which drew accusations of manipulation.
Govt completed first prisoner swaps with Azerbaijan as part of Russia-brokered ceasefire, while opposition protests calling for PM Pashinyan’s resignation continued. Baku and Yerevan 14 Dec exchanged first group of prisoners of war and civilians that included over 44 Armenian and 14 Azerbaijani detainees, with active participation of Russian peacekeeping forces deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh under Nov ceasefire deal; second group of four Armenian and two Azerbaijan detainees released on 28 Dec. Clashes 11-12 Dec took place between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces near villages under Armenian control in first violation of ceasefire agreement (see Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict). Govt announced that it had lifted some martial law restrictions imposed in Sept, including restrictions on holding protests and strikes. Hundreds of opposition demonstrators 8 Dec gathered in capital Yerevan after PM Nikol Pashinyan ignored calls to step down over Nov ceasefire with Azerbaijan. Thousands of Armenians 19 Dec began three days of mourning for victims of hostilities with Azerbaijan, marching through Yerevan. Hundreds of opposition supporters 22 Dec set up protest camp outside govt buildings in Yerevan in response to calls from opposition for national strike. Pashinyan 29 Dec started official discussions about snap parliamentary elections with three main political parties present at National Assembly; no date for possible vote announced yet. Meanwhile, French and American co-chairs of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Minsk Group 14 Dec visited Yerevan for first time since Oct 2019: PM Pashinyan raised with co-chairs need to restore negotiations in format of Minsk Group co-chairmanship with aim of comprehensive settlement, and co-chairs stressed that they remained “committed to providing concrete proposals on issues raised during the meetings for future discussions between the sides.” Lack of clarity on new Armenia-Azerbaijan border 16-17 Dec sparked local protests involving hundreds of residents in southern Syunik region with some briefly blocking roads; defence ministry 17 Dec confirmed that Russian border troops would be stationed along state border in Syunik to ease tensions.
Govt completed first prisoner swaps with Armenia as part of Russia-brokered ceasefire and bolstered ties with Turkey. Baku and Yerevan 14 Dec exchanged first group of prisoners of war, detainees and civilians that included over 44 Armenian and 14 Azerbaijani detainees, with active participation of Russian peacekeeping forces deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh under Nov ceasefire deal; second group of four Armenian and two Azerbaijani detainees released on 28 Dec. Govt 10 Dec held victory parade in capital Baku with participation of Turkish political and military leadership, including group of Turkish soldiers joining Azerbaijani troops in parade; govt 28 Dec revealed it had lost 2,823 soldiers during war. President Aliyev 10 Dec discussed opening of Turkey’s borders with Armenia with Turkish President Erdoğan; Erdoğan stated that Turkey was ready to reopen border with Armenia if Yerevan takes unspecified “positive steps”, and later recited poem lamenting division of Azerbaijani lands along Aras river that runs between Azerbaijan and Iran, prompting Iranian lawmakers 13 Dec to condemn such “unacceptable and divisive” remarks (see Iran). Clashes 11-12 Dec took place between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces near villages under Armenian control in first violation of ceasefire agreement (see Nagorno-Karabakh). Govt 15 Dec signed memorandum of understanding with Turkey, under which Ankara is due to supply natural gas to Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan via new gas pipeline from Turkey’s Igdir region; deal could reduce Nakhchivan’s current dependence on Iranian gas. French and American co-chairs of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Minsk Group 12 Dec visited Baku for first time since start of Oct 2019; Aliyev 12 Dec told co-chairs that they had not been invited. Govt 18 Dec closed land border with Russia until 1 March 2021 due to stark rise in COVID-19 cases in both countries.
Mass protests over disputed Aug presidential elections continued. Thousands throughout month protested in capital Minsk, calling for free and fair elections and challenging govt’s Nov ban on mass demonstrations. Police 6 Dec arrested more than 300 people during protests, using water cannons, armoured vehicles and military trucks to disperse crowds; police 13 Dec detained 135 people and 20 Dec arrested over 100 demonstrators during opposition protests. Hundreds 27 Dec marched in Minsk demanding resignation of President Lukashenka amid heavy police presence; police detained 13 protesters. U.S. 23 Dec sanctioned four entities and 40 individuals for role in disputed election, while EU 17 Dec imposed third round of sanctions targeting seven entities and 29 individuals. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe 4 Dec urged govt to cancel results of disputed Aug election, immediately cease all violence against peaceful protesters and organise new presidential elections. Belarus opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya 16 Dec received European Parliament’s 2020 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought in Brussels on behalf of opposition Coordination Council. Prosecutor General’s Office 22 Dec opened criminal case against Tsikhanouskaya, accusing her and Coordination Council of forming extremist group to overthrow govt.
Mostar held first elections in over decade. Mostar, city in south, 20 Dec held first elections in 12 years after EU, U.S. and UK-sponsored agreement in June broke deadlock between major Croat and Bosniak political parties, Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA); central election commission revealed HDZ and SDA won largest vote shares of 35-member city council but fell short of outright majority.
Prospects for relaunching UN talks remained dim amid gap between Turkey and Turkish Cypriots on one hand and Greece and Greek Cypriots on the other. UN Special Envoy to Cyprus Jane Holl Lute throughout month met relevant stakeholders to lay foundations for relaunching UN-sponsored talks. Lute 1 Dec met Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar, who spoke in favour of restarting talks but stressed that federal solution – on which talks in past were based – had not led to any result and that “it [was] time for a solution to be based on sovereign equality; where there are two states co-existing side by side”. Following 16 Dec meeting with Lute in Ankara, Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu echoed sentiment, tweeting that “federation project is no longer sustainable. In line with realities on island, Turkish side promotes two-state settlement based on equal sovereignty”. In contrast, following meetings with Lute, Greek Cypriot officials 1 Dec and Greek officials 2 Dec reiterated position that talks should resume where they left off in previous round. In “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”, PM Ersan Saner 9 Dec formed new govt following fall of previous one in Oct.
Tensions between Greece and Turkey cooled, raising prospect of resumption of exploratory talks. Tensions between Greece and Turkey tempered after Ankara late Nov withdrew its seismic survey vessel Oruç Reis from disputed waters, raising prospect that bilateral exploratory talks could resume. Following 10 Dec two-day summit, EU Council refrained from anticipated sanctions on Turkey and instead reaffirmed support for Greece and Republic of Cyprus, condemned Turkey’s “provocative” behaviour in East Med and stated positive agenda remained if Turkey “showed readiness… to resolve differences through dialogue and in accordance with international law”. In phone call with EU Council President Charles Michel on 15 Dec, Turkish President Erdoğan said steps by EU constituted “a new window of opportunity”, stressing Turkey’s intent “to turn a new page with the EU”. Meanwhile, military activities continued. Greece 13-15 Dec held military drills near the easternmost Aegean islands of Samothrace, Limnos, Chios, Samos, Tilos and Halki; Turkey 13 Dec responded with three advisory announcements for demilitarisation of these islands. Turkey 13 and 19 Dec issued advisories disputing Greece’s jurisdiction over airspace south of Kastellorizo, where Greek air force 15 and 21 Dec conducted aeronautical exercises. FMs of Cyprus, Greece and Jordan 8 Dec met in Jordan’s capital Amman to lay groundwork for establishment of permanent secretariat to facilitate regional cooperation. United Arab Emirates (UAE) participated for first time alongside France in joint Greek, Egyptian and Cypriot training exercises held 30 Nov-6 Dec off Egyptian coast. Egypt 17 Dec announced that UAE had joined the East Med Gas Forum as observer.