India is emerging on the international stage as both an aspiring voice for the global south and a strategic partner for Western democracies that perceive it as a counterweight to China. Its rise is accompanied by regional and domestic conflicts. The traditionally restive western border with Pakistan remains on edge, as the Kashmir conflict continues to fester. The northern border with China has been unstable since the deadly clash of April 2020, with tensions between the two Asian giants increasingly enmeshed in the U.S.-China rivalry. An ethnic conflict is raging in the state of Manipur, bordering Myanmar, threatening to destabilise the country’s north-eastern region. Meanwhile, concerns are growing about the steady erosion of India’s democracy. Crisis Group monitors and analyses India’s foreign policy and domestic conflicts with the aim of providing policymakers effective frameworks for better understanding and addressing these internal and external dynamics.
Read our CrisisWatch entries on India-Pakistan (Kashmir) here.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party remains in the driver’s seat following the Indian elections, but it has lost its majority in parliament. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi explores the implications for New Delhi’s domestic and foreign policies.
Leaked audio recording surfaced alleging that Chief Minister played role in fuelling ethnic tensions in Manipur, tensions with China over border issues persisted, and Maoist violence decreased.
Chief Minister’s role in Manipur ethnic conflict brought under scrutiny. Kuki Students’ Organisation (KSO) 7 Aug published transcribed excerpts of audio recording in which Chief Minister N. Biren Singh allegedly supported using mortar bombs against Kuki-Zo community. Manipur govt same day denied allegation, calling audio “doctored”. Media outlet The Wire 19 Aug stated commission on inquiry for Manipur, set up in 2023, would investigate audio recording. Ten Kuki-Zo lawmakers 21 Aug asked for Singh’s resignation saying recording established his complicity “beyond an iota of doubt”; Aam Aadmi Party 20 Aug also called for Singh to resign. Singh 29 Aug defended administration’s record, dismissed calls for resignation; Kuki-Zo 31 Aug held large rallies asking him to step down. Meanwhile, insecurity persisted. Notably, Sapam Charubala, wife of former legislator 10 Aug died in explosion at home; unidentified perpetrators 17 Aug threw explosives into home of former lawmaker, Nahakpam Indrajit and 20 Aug fired five rounds from automatic weapons at college principal’s home.
Relations with China remained tense, satellite imageries confirmed new 400-metre Chinese wall at disputed border. Chinese state media 1 Aug reported sides agreed to “consider each other’s reasonable concerns” pertaining to border issues in order to reach consensus as soon as possible; statement published day after media outlet NDTV 31 July revealed that China completed construction of 400-metre bridge connecting northern and southern banks of Pangong Tso on Line of Actual Control. FM Jaishankar 31 Aug said “India has a special China problem”, called for scrutiny over investments from China.
Maoist-related violence and anti-Maoist operations decreased. Maoists 20 Aug killed female cadre, Neelso alias Banti Radha, in Telangana state in border area with Chhattisgarh state, for being ‘covert operative’; attackers next day said Radha was killed for “betraying” party leadership by collaborating with police and had been removed as commander three months ago. National Investigation Agency 13 Aug filed charges against four Maoists after arresting them with weapons from Kanker district in Chhattisgarh.
India’s most trusted … bilateral relationship is probably with Russia. It’s been at the heart of India’s foreign and strategic policy for a long time.
New Delhi’s pro-Israel shift gives a new reason to [India's] right-wing ecosystem that routinely targets Muslims.
India does not want a unipolar Asia where China is dominant … It wants a multipolar Asia, which India says will lead to a multipolar world.
This regional rivalry between India and China is only bound to get more intense as it gets enmeshed with the great power rivalry between the US and China.
In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve talk with Crisis Group trustee and former Indian National Security Adviser and Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon about India’s views on the U.S. election and how New Dehli navigates a rapidly changing world order.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Pauline Bax and Falko Ernst about recent elections in India, South Africa and Mexico and what they mean for the countries’ policies at home and abroad.
Modi’s Tough Stance Could Invite—Not Deter—Chinese Aggression.
Indian authorities speak confidently of a new era in the region of Jammu and Kashmir, for decades a hotbed of separatism, insurgency and tensions with neighbouring Pakistan. But with New Delhi stalling on promised elections, local frustration continues to fuel unrest.
Frictions along the India-China frontier have heated up following a burst of fighting in 2020, the first in decades. The danger of more will lurk as long as the countries disagree over where the line lies. Both should take steps to manage the mounting risks.
Inter-communal clashes have erupted in India’s Manipur state, near Myanmar. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi delves into what caused the unrest and what New Delhi could do to stop it.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks with Crisis Group trustee and former Indian Foreign Secretary and National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon about New Delhi’s response to the Ukraine war, India’s foreign policy and why the war could strain relations between Western capitals and the rest of the world.
Militants in Indian-administered Kashmir have increased the targeted killing of Hindus, who are a small minority in the region, spreading panic among them. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi draws upon interviews with residents to explore the implications of this violence.
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