Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, escalating a war that began eight years before with Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. For Ukraine, its very existence as a state is at stake, while Russia hopes its attack will help assert its place in the world and restore its dominance over key neighbours. Ukraine’s Western backers see the prospect of Russia succeeding in violently shifting borders as a risk to their security. They, therefore, try to balance military support to Ukraine and the risk of escalating the conflict. Crisis Group’s reporting follows developments in the war, assesses its human costs and gauges the conflict’s regional and global security implications. In its advocacy, Crisis Group seeks to support policies that will help Ukraine survive and reduce escalation risks and the human cost of fighting while contributing to a sustainably secure Europe.
Explore Crisis Group's map that shows movements of military units and fortification building below.
Russian forces closed in on strategic town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, which looks set to become next epicentre of conflict in east; Kyiv’s forces launched surprise attack into Russia’s Kursk region.
Russians closed in on Pokrovsk, key logistical hub in eastern Donetsk. Russian forces quickened their advance toward Donetsk’s Pokrovsk town, whose strategic location at intersection of several roads and railways facilitates provision of supplies to Ukrainian troops along eastern frontline. Authorities 15 Aug ordered civilians to evacuate as Russians closed in, making rapid gains late Aug in several areas south east of Pokrovsk and fuelling fears of grinding battle for control of town in coming weeks and months. Russian forces also continued their relentless advance near Toretsk and Chasiv Yar towns. Meanwhile, strikes on Ukrainian cities persisted, with President Zelenskyy 26 Aug calling early-morning Russian missile and drone attack “one of the biggest combined strikes” since full-scale invasion.
Ukraine launched surprise incursion into Russian borderlands. Ukraine 6 Aug launched incursion into Russia’s Kursk region (see Russia), capturing swath of territory in attempt to strengthen Kyiv’s hand in future talks and divert Russian troops from Donetsk; top commander Gen. Syrskyi 27 Aug said Moscow had anticipated this and instead bolstered troops in Pokrovsk direction. In response to incursion, Russian President Putin 12 Aug ruled out talks with Kyiv; media outlet The Washington Post 17 Aug reported sides were planning talks in Qatar on mutual cessation of strikes on energy infrastructure. Zelenskyy 27 Aug said offensive was part of “victory plan” to end war.
Kyiv sought support among African nations, engaged with Indian PM Modi. FM Kuleba 4-8 Aug visited Malawi, Zambia and Mauritius in effort to bolster support for Ukraine among African countries. Yet Mali 4 Aug cut ties with Ukraine over its alleged support for Tuareg-led deadly assault on Russian paramilitaries and Malian soldiers in July (see Mali); Niger 6 Aug followed suit. Meanwhile, Indian PM Modi 23 Aug held talks with Zelenskyy in capital Kyiv, called on warring parties to move toward diplomacy and said “India is ready to play an active role” in peace efforts.
For too long, allies clung to magical thinking about Russia's weakness and Ukraine's ability to force the Kremlin into talks with battlefield success.
If Ukraine doesn’t receive the weapons from the West that it needs to keep fighting … it doesn’t stand much of a chance.
Ukraine's weapons supplies are depleted by the counteroffensive, and its allies are struggling to quickly ramp up production.
Moscow's strategy of waiting for an erosion of European unity over Ukraine could yet prove a miscalculation.
[Putin’s] goal is to force the West to negotiate on Moscow's terms … on the entire post-Soviet space. He wants to divide the world into spheres of influence again.
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Lucian Kim, senior Ukraine analyst at Crisis Group, to talk about the mood in Kyiv and Washington over the war in Ukraine and Washington’s Ukraine policy as the U.S. heads for elections in November.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker about the latest from Ukraine, prospects for a negotiated settlement to the war and what lies ahead for European security.
Even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands its army freed from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is much Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once more.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts discuss the diplomats meeting in Lucerne about the war in Ukraine, its implications and Ukraine’s diplomatic strategy.
High-ranking officials from around the world will soon convene in Switzerland for talks aimed at “inspiring a future peace process” in Ukraine. No Russian representative will be there. In this Q&A, Crisis Group lays out the summit organisers’ goals and the obstacles to achieving them.
The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Joe Cirincione, national security analyst and a leading expert on non-proliferation, to discuss the nuclear escalation risks of the war in Ukraine, U.S. nuclear policy and the looming collapse of global arms control.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Crisis Group experts Alissa de Carbonnel and Simon Schlegel about where things stand for Ukraine and its Western supporters two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion and what might be next.
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