As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue, Baku has opened a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, the sole road connecting Armenia to the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, raising fears of a new surge in fighting. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts discuss the risks.
Yerevan and Baku overcame major stumbling block in peace talks, while frontlines remained relatively calm despite occasional incidents.
Yerevan and Baku agreed to defer corridor issue amid ongoing peace efforts. Azerbaijan’s presidential aide Elchin Amirbayov 7 Aug told media outlet RFE/RL that Armenia and Azerbaijan had agreed to remove references to development of transport corridor linking Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan from draft peace treaty and to “refer to it at a later stage”; Yerevan next day confirmed announcement. Decision removed key sticking point in talks, and indicated sides could be opting for shorter, simplified statement, rather than the detailed agreement previously envisioned. Moscow appeared to insist on continued discussions about issue, however, given that the 2020 ceasefire deal potentially paved way for major Russian security role along corridor. Notably, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 19 Aug urged sides “to follow the spirit and letter” of 2020 agreement, while Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Russian President Putin 28 Aug reportedly exchanged views about “opening of the transport corridor”.
Baku reported several small incidents along frontline. Baku 15, 16, 18 Aug accused Armenian forces of firing at military positions in traditionally calm areas of Nakhchivan, 19 Aug claimed its troops had come under fire along main road leading from Armenia to Azerbaijan’s Kelbajar district; Baku same day said it had destroyed Armenian quadcopter in Lachin district. Yerevan denied all incidents and 15 Aug restated its June proposal to establish mechanism for investigating alleged ceasefire violations, which outgoing EU Special Representative Toivo Klaar 16 Aug reiterated support for.
Armenia is having problems integrating over 100,000 refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan took control of the enclave in September 2023. Yerevan has tried to be generous, but it lacks funds and a long-term plan, leaving the displaced people exposed and facing an uncertain future.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts, about where things stand between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deadly border clashes in September and whether a peace agreement might be within reach.
A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan about the state of the UN as world leaders meet for General Assembly week, and also catches up with Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker about the latest from Ukraine and violence on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
Six months of contacts between Türkiye and Armenia have brought an agreement to move toward opening their shared border and launching direct trade. But Ankara and Yerevan are far apart on many issues. The road ahead will be long.
Turkish and Armenian special envoys will meet in Moscow on 14 January to discuss normalising relations between these long-estranged neighbours. Crisis Group experts Olesya Vartanyan, Nigar Göksel and Zaur Shiriyev unpack how the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 opened the way for talks.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to Crisis Group’s South Caucasus expert Olesya Vartanyan about the conflict in and over Nagorno-Karabakh, a year on from a Russian-brokered ceasefire that put an end to renewed large-scale fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile. The parties should establish a formal communication channel to address urgent post-war problems, Russian peacekeepers need a clearer mandate and aid agencies must be granted access to the conflict zone.
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