For much of the last several decades, Lebanon has been wracked by instability and tangled up in the affairs of larger or more powerful neighbours. Its confessional political system, based on power sharing among its eighteen officially recognised ethno-religious groups, is arguably both the cause and the effect of recurrent strife, notably the 1975-1990 civil war. Today the elites who run the system are also implicated in ever-deepening state dysfunction and economic recession. Meanwhile, Lebanon is at risk of spillover from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Syrian war and regional turmoil, due partly to the rise of Hizbollah, the Shiite Islamist movement opposed to Israel and allied with Iran and the Syrian regime, as a political force. The country hosts hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees as well as nearly 1.5 million Syrians. Pending changes that would allow resolution of the outside conflicts, Crisis Group works to keep Lebanon insulated from their flare-ups, to seek durable solutions for refugees and to encourage structural reform that might alleviate the country's internal problems.
The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has brought the Middle East to its moment of greatest peril in years. All concerned must do their utmost to avoid regional war. The most important step, besides mutual restraint, is a Gaza ceasefire.
Israel launched major “pre-emptive” cross-border attack and Hizbollah stepped up cross-border attacks.
Israel launched major “pre-emptive” attack as Hizbollah stepped up attacks. Israel 25 Aug launched attack on southern Lebanon killing three militants; Hizbollah same day said it launched 320 Katyusha rockets and dozens of drones at 11 Israeli military sites in retaliation for July killing of Hizbollah commander, claiming op-eration was done “as planned”. Cross-border attacks 25 Aug were most intense day of cross-border fire since clashes began on 8 Oct 2023.
Israel and Hizbollah carried out other cross-border attacks during month. Nota-bly, Israeli strike 6 Aug killed four in southern Mayfadoun town. Israeli drones 9 Aug killed Hamas official, injured two civilians in Saida city. Hizbollah same day claimed attacks on Israeli town Dovev and Kiryat Shmona military base. Israeli airstrike 14 Aug injured 17 in Lebanon’s Abbasiyeh village, Tyre district; Hizbol-lah retaliated with rockets targeting Kiryat Shmona city, northern Israel. Ministry of Health 17 Aug said Israeli airstrike killed at least ten civilians in Lebanon’s Nabatieh area; Israeli strike same day killed Hizbollah member near Lebanon’s Tyre city and Hizbollah strike injured two Israeli soldiers in Misgav Am area, northern Israel. Explosion 18 Aug injured three UN peacekeepers in Yarine vil-lage, south Lebanon. Israeli strikes 19, 20 Aug struck alleged Hizbollah weapons storage facilities in Bekaa valley, eastern Lebanon, killing at least two and injur-ing 27. Israeli airstrike next day killed member of Fatah armed wing near Saida city. Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon 23 Aug killed eight militants and one child. UN Security Council 28 Aug extended mandate of UN Interim Force in Lebanon until 31 Aug 2025.
Economic crisis and double executive vacuum persisted. Political leaders made no headway in implementing reforms required by International Monetary Fund to unlock financial rescue package and failed to end political deadlock, leaving coun-try with no president and only caretaker govt. State electricity provider 17 Aug said it had exhausted fuel reserves, causing widespread blackouts. Govt reported-ly had $2bn in arrears on payment for Iraqi fuel deliveries, 10% of GDP; Algerian media 18 Aug announced that Algiers will immediately supply Lebanon with some fuel, but exact deal remained unclear.
Israel and Hezbollah have pursued a new dynamic of tit-for-tat retaliation – launching strikes against each other below the threshold of triggering an all-out war.
This year's [UNIFIL] mandate renewal discussion comes at an especially tense moment for the peacekeeping force [in Lebanon].
Nothing happens in southern Lebanon without Hezbollah’s knowledge.
Israel and one of its neighbors [Lebanon] - a neighbor that doesn't officially recognize Israel - have come to a constructive solution for a conflict. And that's histor...
Since October 2023, Hizbollah and Israel have been trading fire across the Lebanon-Israel border. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU and its member states can stop the conflict from escalating and restore greater stability.
Since October, Hizbollah has walked a fine line between attacking Israel and avoiding all-out war. While no Lebanese actor can force Hizbollah to stop fighting, the group does not want the blame for a conflict that could devastate crisis-hit Lebanon.
Thus far, Hizbollah and Israel have avoided a disastrous escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border as the Gaza war rages. But trouble lies ahead. Western-led mediation remains the best way to restore security to the frontier.
Thus far, October’s exchanges of fire between Hizbollah and Israel have stayed within the sides’ red lines. Still, with an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza looming, risks are tremendous. A Gaza ceasefire, while improbable, is the only way to rule out a broader war.
In this video, David Wood discusses the presidential vacuum in Lebanon and how it's affecting the country's ability to deal with its other compounding crises.
With tensions rising along the Israeli-Lebanese border, the UN peacekeeping force stationed in the area has arguably never been more important. With the mandate up for renewal, the UN Security Council and troop-contributing countries should reassert their backing for the mission in the strongest terms.
In this video, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Lebanon, David Wood, warns that tensions between Hizbollah and Israel risk ending the relative calm of the past seventeen years.
The CrisisWatch Digest Lebanon offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.
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