Brazil is in the midst of deep polarisation between left- and right-leaning political forces, with the former's champion, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, narrowly prevailing over the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential election. The road ahead could be rocky: Bolsonaro's loyalists are a sizeable bloc in the national legislature; his social base appears strong and defiant; and after several violent incidents marred the campaign, the risk of more cannot be discounted. The stakes of the struggle include the fate of the vast Amazon rainforest, which Lula has vowed to protect from logging, mining, ranching and other industries. Through advocacy and periodic reporting, Crisis Group works to lower the political temperature and encourage stability in the world's seventh most populous country.
O crime organizado infiltrou-se na bacia amazônica, procurando terras para o cultivo de coca, rios para o tráfico de droga e veios de ouro subterrâneos. Esses grupos estão colocando em risco a floresta tropical e a segurança daqueles que tentam defendê-la. É imperativo que os governos regionais tomem medidas de proteção.
Days after Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s inauguration as president, Pro-Bolsonaro protesters stormed govt buildings, demanding military coup.
Rioters stormed govt buildings in attempt to reinstate Bolsonaro as president. Days after President Lula 1 Jan took office, supporters of former President Bolsonaro 8 Jan invaded presidential palace, Congress, and Supreme Court in capital Brasília, demanding military coup to reinstate Bolsonaro as president; they stole weaponry from vaults and caused millions of dollars in damage, including by smashing windows and furniture and destroying works of art. Lula same day declared state of emergency in Federal District, where Brasilia is located, until 31 Jan. Bolsonaro 9 Jan denied any involvement, claiming to have always acted lawfully.
Authorities arrested scores for attempted coup, evidence of army role in riots emerged. Police arrested over 1,500 protesters, 39 of whom were indicted by federal prosecutors on 16 Jan for crimes including attempted coup d’état. Supreme Court head Alexandre de Moraes 8 Jan suspended pro-Bolsonaro governor of Federal District Ibaneis Rocha for 90 days due to lack of action to contain protesters; Rocha 13 Jan responded, claiming army prevented police from removing pro-Bolsonaro protesters’ encampment in Brasília before riots. Police 10 Jan arrested former Commander of Federal District’s military police Colonel Fábio Augusto Vieira due to security lapses during riots; Vieira 12 Jan said army had twice blocked police from clearing encampment. Supreme Court 13 Jan approved request to investigate Bolsonaro’s role in protests. Authorities 14 Jan arrested Anderson Torres, Brasília’s security secretary and former minister of justice under Bolsonaro, on charges of “omission”; upon searching his home, they found draft decree that would allow electoral authorities to interfere with past presidential election results and annul Lula’s win. Lula 21 Jan fired army General Julio Cesar de Arruda for not following govt orders to dismantle pro-Bolsonaro tent. Police 27 Jan raided home of Leonardo Rodrigues de Jesus, Bolsonaro’s nephew, currently under investigation for role in riots.
O retorno de Lula à presidência promete um papel mais forte para o Brasil na diplomacia multilateral. Neste trecho da Watch List 2023, o Crisis Group insta a UE e seus Estados membros a aproveitar ao máximo esta oportunidade.
O ataque às instituições estatais brasileiras evocou propositalmente a incursão de 2021 ao Capitólio dos Estados Unidos. Como ocorrido depois daquele evento, o trabalho das forças policiais e do Judiciário se junta à tarefa mais delicada de identificar os círculos políticos e financeiros que possibilitaram o tumulto.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Ivan Briscoe and Renata Segura, Crisis Group’s Latin America director and deputy director, about President Lula’s election win in Brazil and whether a new group of leftist leaders across Latin America can help end some of the continent’s crises, notably in Venezuela and Haiti.
Jair Bolsonaro, presidente do Brasil, corre o risco de perder sua tentativa de reeleição em outubro. Se ele contestar o resultado, sua base de apoio - que está diminuindo em número mas alinhando-se cada vez mais à extrema-direita - pode sair às ruas. As instituições estatais devem se preparar para lidar com acusações infundadas de fraude e coibir possível violência.
À medida que aumenta o ímpeto para o impeachment do presidente Jair Bolsonaro, ele depende do apoio das Forças Armadas. Os generais manterão o rumo? Eles poderiam romper com o presidente, pondo em perigo seus interesses institucionais? Essas questões, cruciais para a política brasileira, não têm uma resposta óbvia.
Apesar de uma fraca condução da pandemia que já custou mais de 160.000 vidas, o presidente do Brasil está desfrutando de um aumento de popularidade graças às transferências de renda emergenciais e à redução de tensões políticas. Mas sua sorte pode mudar e a ameaça que ele representa para a democracia brasileira pode aumentar novamente.
The frontier between Brazil and its crisis-ridden neighbour Venezuela has become a major migration route, a hotspot for crime and a flashpoint for violence.
The frontier between Brazil and its crisis-ridden neighbour Venezuela has become a major migration route, a hotspot for crime and a flashpoint for violence. This is the first of three commentaries on Venezuela’s troubled borderlands.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.