The Central African Republic has been in turmoil since a violent takeover of power in 2013. The aftermath saw armed groups conclude a multitude of peace agreements even as they continued to fight each other and launch attacks on the civilian population. The latest agreement, sponsored by the African Union and signed in February 2019 by the government and fourteen armed groups, raised hopes of peace. The violence has not stopped, however, and political tensions are again on the rise. Through on-the-ground reporting and advocacy, Crisis Group provides concrete advice on how to navigate both the critical electoral period in late 2020 and the long term, focusing on how to persuade armed groups to lay down their weapons.
Rwanda has become a major player in the Central African Republic, helping the government fight insurgents, supporting state reforms and investing in numerous businesses. This engagement has rewards but also comes with risks. Bangui and Kigali should act now to minimise the latter.
Prospect of ceasefire created cracks among rebel alliance; deadly violence on civilians persisted and govt postponed local elections.
Ceasefire opportunity sparked divisions among rebels and govt. In 26 July document circulating publicly 4 Aug onwards, Gen. Ali Darassa, founder of Fulani-led Unity for Peace in Central African Republic (UPC) armed group, announced ceasefire and expressed willingness to seek compromise with govt “aimed at restoring peace, security and social cohesion”. Darassa’s decision, however, caused discord within Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebel alliance – which includes UPC and five other armed groups; some factions favour continuing violent struggle rather than entering dialogue. CPC general coordinator and former President Bozizé – in exile in Guinea-Bissau – 5 Aug dismissed Darassa as alliance’s chief of staff for high treason, saying Darassa’s move did not bind coalition, exposing rifts among rebels. Opinions also divided within President Touadéra’s circle; presidential advisor Fidèle Gouandjika 6 Aug argued for continued military action, but disarmament and reintegration minister Jean Wilibiro Sacko 8 Aug affirmed govt’s decision to pursue dialogue with Darassa. Govt also engaged in talks with representatives of Movement for Central Africa, armed group reportedly 1,000-strong based along border with Chad.
Armed groups continued to cause harm to civilians. CPC fighters 8 Aug killed five traders in ambush in Gambo sub-prefecture, Mbomou prefecture. Despite formal incorporation into army, ethnic Azandé militia fighters pursued aggressive stances against civilians; combatants 8 Aug conducted searches in Zemio town, Haut-Mbomou prefecture, arresting at least ten civilians, mostly Muslim traders, accusing them of collaborating with UPC rebels. Meanwhile, Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation rebel group 13 Aug killed two Russian paramilitaries in ambush near mining site in Markounda sub-prefecture, Ouham prefecture.
Govt postponed local elections over financial issues. Govt 22 Aug announced postponement of local and municipal elections – originally scheduled for Oct – to April 2025; decision related to funding challenges, as electoral body only raised around half of required budget. Although some opposition leaders welcomed decision and pressed for dialogue, opposition coalition Republican Bloc for the Defence of the Constitution continued to call for boycott of polls, demanding reform of electoral body.
In March 2013, Seleka rebels triggered a civil war in the Central African Republic. A decade later, strong domestic and international tensions raise concerns the country could face another violent power transfer. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Enrica Picco analyses the state of play.
Disbanded in 2013, today the Central African army is present throughout the country. But structural problems could weaken it once again. To avoid a downward spiral, Bangui and its international partners should apply the principles laid out in the 2017 National Defence Plan.
Russia has become the Central African Republic’s preferred ally in its battle with insurgents. But the government’s use of Russian mercenaries as it goes on the offensive is causing domestic divisions and alienating other external partners. Concerns about rights abuses and misinformation campaigns are mounting.
The risk of an entrenched political and security crisis remains high in the Central African Republic following December’s contested elections. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2021 for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the EU and France to press the government and opposition to halt heated rhetoric and nudge the many parties toward talks.
The Central African Republic is beset with fresh violence days before voting slated for 27 December. If the election is to go forward, and the country to avoid further turmoil, neighbouring heads of state will need to help rival politicians strike a deal.
In the Central African Republic, the smooth conduct of the December 2020 elections will be essential for the country's stability. The government and opposition should ease tensions, international partners should support credible elections and regional actors should encourage armed groups to abstain from violence during the electoral period.
A February 2019 agreement is the latest in a string of attempts to bring peace to the Central African Republic. Will it hold? Crisis Group expert Hans de Marie Heungoup goes to the country to find out, along with photographer Julie David de Lossy.
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