Long-overdue elections that returned President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to power in 2022 have raised hopes that Somalia can close a highly divisive chapter in its recent history. But the challenges it faces remain daunting. Relations between the federal government and member states are still uneasy, talks over Somaliland’s status have made little progress and vital state-building tasks, like finalising the provisional constitution, are lagging behind. Meanwhile, a historic drought is undermining local livelihoods while also foreshadowing the long-term challenges posed by climate change. Further, even as Mohamud has declared “total war” on the Islamist insurgency Al-Shabaab, which remains a defiant actor, a security transition premised on the withdrawal of African Union troops by the end of 2024 is fast approaching. Crisis Group’s work in Somalia aims to foster and maintain political unity, address the root causes of insecurity, including climate change’s impact, and consider means to wind down the long war with Al-Shabaab.
After a decade-long lull, Somali pirates have hijacked a handful of vessels in recent months. Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood reports on the burning anger over illegal trawling that is driving some local fishermen to sympathise with this dangerous – and profitable – activity.
Al-Shabaab launched major attack in capital Mogadishu as post-AU mission security framework became clearer; Türkiye’s mediation between Somalia and Ethiopia progressed slowly.
Militants conducted largest attack in over year in capital. Al-Shabaab 2 Aug carried out complex attack including suicide bomb at beach restaurant in Mogadishu, killing at least 37 civilians and wounding over 200 in deadliest attack in city since Oct 2022; president’s office said it would design plans to strengthen capital’s security. Also, suicide vehicle bomber 21 Aug killed at least five at security checkpoint on Mogadishu’s outskirts. Govt continued anti-Al-Shabaab operations including 13 Aug in Galcad district, Galmudug state (centre), killing ten militants and same day in Badhade district, Jubaland state (south), claiming to have killed 32.
Replacement for AU mission (ATMIS) announced. AU 1 Aug approved plans for successor to ATMIS; AU Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) to have some 12,000 personnel across 23 locations and run from Jan 2025 until Dec 2029; meanwhile, UN Security Council 15 Aug authorised ATMIS mandate extension until 31 Dec when it is replaced. Key questions, however, remain over transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM including financing and which countries will contribute troops.
Clan violence persisted. Rival groups 19 Aug onwards clashed in Bidhaan-dheere area, Galgaduud region (Galmudug), reportedly killing at least four, including local mediator.
Tensions with Ethiopia continued. Türkiye 12-13 Aug hosted second round of indirect talks between FM Fiqi and his Ethiopian counterpart Atskeselassie; although reports of positive progress emerged, discussions ended without deal as both Mogadishu and Addis Ababa stuck to positions regarding latter’s Jan announced agreement with Hargeisa; third round due to begin 17 Sept. Immediately after talks, President Mohamud 14 Aug travelled to Egypt to sign defence cooperation agreement in signal of govt’s continuing attempts to bolster international support; Cairo 27 Aug delivered military equipment to Mogadishu, prompting criticism from Addis Ababa (see Ethiopia). Meanwhile, govt late Aug began pressuring businesses including airlines and remittance companies to stop using Somaliland name (see Somaliland).
It is likely Somalia will still require foreign troops’ assistance for at least the next couple of years in order to avoid a security reversal.
If military pressure is designed to push toward the complete elimination of Shabaab, then I think we'll miss opportunities to resolve this conflict.
Al-Shabaab continues to mount resistance in parts of central Somalia and fighting al-Shabaab in its southern strongholds will probably be a tougher slog.
Things [in Somalia] are likely to get worse before they get better as both the government and al Shabaab are locked into war mode right now.
Despite President Biden’s campaign promise to end the forever wars, Somalia remains one of the most active areas in the world for U.S. counterterrorism operations.
I think the reason why [Mukhtar Robow, ex-Al-Shabab leader] was brought from house arrest to the cabinet minister is to create a counter-narrative to that of al-Shabab.
Elections in the Somali state of Puntland were a mixed bag. The vote was peaceful, but it followed an indirect model in which most have no voice. The re-elected president should reconcile with opponents while Somalia draws wider lessons from a failed experiment with democratisation.
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, about the implications for Somalia of a possible port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland and the risks of an escalation in regional tensions.
The Somali government aims to “eliminate” Al-Shabaab by the year’s end, marking a crucial point in its sixteen-year war with the insurgency. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group explains what the EU can do to address Somalia’s challenges.
This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group experts Omar Mahmood and Sarah Harrison, to discuss where Somalia's military offensive against Al-Shabaab might be headed and the evolving role of the U.S. in the country.
Polls likely due in 2024 could unsettle Galmudug, a building block of Somalia’s federal project, increasing frictions along clan and other lines. State and federal authorities have a shared interest in ensuring a clean vote. They should cooperate toward that end.
U.S. President Joe Biden promised to end the “forever wars” launched after the 9/11 attacks. In Somalia, however, his administration has reinvigorated a flawed military-first approach to battling Islamist militants. Washington should complement those efforts with others aimed at stabilisation and political reconciliation.
The CrisisWatch Digest Somalia offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Somalia expert, about the Somali army’s latest offensive, together with clan militias, against Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency and challenges as the battle moves from central Somalia to Al-Shabaab’s southern strongholds.
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