Thailand’s 2023 general election resulted in a coalition government that left the leading party, the progressive Move Forward, in opposition. The country’s fundamental political and social divisions have not been bridged. If electoral participation continues to fall short in effecting change, people may be drawn to other means of doing so. The potential for conflict therefore remains, though it is not obvious what might trigger turmoil in the near term. In the deep south, the Patani-Malay separatist insurgency continues, while the dialogue process appears dormant. Crisis Group aims to reduce the risk of escalation in the south and limit medium-term threats to stability by supporting strengthened democratic institutions and promoting substantive peace talks.
Despite winning big at the polls on 14 May, Thailand’s Move Forward has been blocked from forming a government. In taking this step, as Crisis Group expert Matt Wheeler explains in this Q&A, the party’s conservative opponents are nudging the country toward turmoil.
Court disbanded Move Forward Party (MFP) as new PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, took office amid ongoing violence in deep south.
Constitutional court dissolved MFP as over 140 MPs joined new opposition party. Constitutional Court 7 Aug dissolved main opposition MFP in unanimous decision; court banned MFP’s eleven party executives, including party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, from holding office for ten years. Human rights groups and UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk immediately criticised ruling. Meanwhile, all 143 MFP MPs, who retained seats in parliament, 9 Aug joined freshly formed People’s Party or “Prachachon”, with tech entrepreneur Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut as party leader. Sec-Gen of National Anti-Corruption Commission Office 8 Aug said agency had ordered investigation of 44 former MFP MPs, including Natthaphong, for alleged breach of ethical standards by sponsoring bill to amend Article 112 of the Criminal Code.
New PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra elected unopposed. Constitutional Court 14 Aug dismissed PM Srettha Thavisin for ethical violations. House of Representatives 16 Aug elected Paetongtarn Shinawatra as new PM; Paetongtarn is widely seen as proxy for her father, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. Royal Gazette 17 Aug reported decree that pardoned Thaksin for his 2008 conviction.
Deep south peace talks continued as militants staged attacks. Former PM Srettha 3 Aug met Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim in Sungai Kolok, Narathiwat province, on Malaysian border, reportedly discussed Deputy PM and Minister of Interior Anutin Charnvirakul’s role working with Malaysia’s security sector to end conflict. Narathiwat Provincial Court 23 Aug accepted case brought by families of victims of Oct 2004 Tak Bai incident, in which 85 Malay-Muslim men were killed. Meanwhile, low-level violence continued in deep south. Notably, security forces 1 Aug clashed with insurgents, killing three, in Khok Pho district, Pattani province; rangers on patrol 4 Aug detonated landmine killing one in Raman district, Yala province; security forces 8 Aug engaged in firefight with militant in Chanae district, Narathiwat, which left one militant dead; militants 9 Aug detonated three IEDs near Pattani Provincial Police Investigation Division, injuring nine police officers. Four assailants 11 Aug threw pipe bombs at Marine Corps checkpoint in Bacho district, Narathiwat, injuring one marine.
There’s a sense of hopelessness [in Thailand] — that there’s no way to effect any kind of real change in the available political avenues.
Negotiations between Bangkok and the main insurgent group in Thailand’s southernmost provinces are on hold, after making some promising advances. Structural and procedural changes could help keep the talks going when they resume.
The Thai government has restarted talks with the main insurgency in the country’s southernmost provinces. A quiet back channel helped the parties make progress – and reach a Ramadan ceasefire – while the official negotiations hosted by Malaysia paused. The parties should build on these achievements.
Youth-led protests demanding a new constitution and reforms to Thailand’s monarchy led the country to a perilous juncture in 2020. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2021, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to push for the cessation of excessive use of force against protesters, strengthen efforts to monitor the human rights situation and offer support should a reconciliation process materialise.
Young pro-democracy protesters have roiled Thai politics with a previously taboo demand to reform the country’s monarchy. As the state resists change, and conservative citizens recoil, the risk of violence is growing. The standoff poses Thailand’s existential question: is the king sovereign or are the people?
Anti-government protests and popular demands for reform, including of the once-sacrosanct monarchy, have accelerated in Thailand. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South East Asia, Matt Wheeler, explains how this crisis over political legitimacy has now reached a dangerous impasse.
Sound public health policies have largely spared Thailand from the coronavirus to date. But a looming economic crisis could shake the foundations of the political order. What is needed is revision of the 2017 constitution to allow for more pluralism and less inequality.
Talks to end the insurgency in Thailand’s southernmost provinces have repeatedly encountered obstacles, including the main rebel organisation’s abstention from the current round. With a new Thai official taking charge, and inviting that group to rejoin, both parties should drop objections that have hindered progress.
On 5 November, insurgents in southern Thailand staged their deadliest attack in years, killing fifteen people. Crisis Group’s South East Asia Senior Analyst, Matt Wheeler, explains what happened and what it means for the stagnant peace-dialogue process.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.