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Elections in the Somali state of Puntland were a mixed bag. The vote was peaceful, but it followed an indirect model in which most have no voice. The re-elected president should reconcile with opponents while Somalia draws wider lessons from a failed experiment with democratisation. 

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, about the implications for Somalia of a possible port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland and the risks of an escalation in regional tensions.

The Somali government aims to “eliminate” Al-Shabaab by the year’s end, marking a crucial point in its sixteen-year war with the insurgency. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group explains what the EU can do to address Somalia’s challenges.

This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group experts Omar Mahmood and Sarah Harrison, to discuss where Somalia's military offensive against Al-Shabaab might be headed and the evolving role of the U.S. in the country.

Polls likely due in 2024 could unsettle Galmudug, a building block of Somalia’s federal project, increasing frictions along clan and other lines. State and federal authorities have a shared interest in ensuring a clean vote. They should cooperate toward that end.

U.S. President Joe Biden promised to end the “forever wars” launched after the 9/11 attacks. In Somalia, however, his administration has reinvigorated a flawed military-first approach to battling Islamist militants. Washington should complement those efforts with others aimed at stabilisation and political reconciliation.

The CrisisWatch Digest Somalia offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Somalia expert, about the Somali army’s latest offensive, together with clan militias, against Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency and challenges as the battle moves from central Somalia to Al-Shabaab’s southern strongholds.

In this video, Omar Mahmood discusses the Somali government’s recent gains in its war with the Islamist insurgency Al-Shabaab, mainly in central Somalia.

In conjunction with clan militias, the national army has dislodged the Islamist insurgency Al-Shabaab from swathes of central Somalia, marking a breakthrough in the fifteen-year war. As its campaign proceeds, Mogadishu should take steps to strengthen its hold on the territory it has retaken.