Africa’s second most populous country is in the midst of an increasingly rocky political transition that began in 2018, with the ascent of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. At first, the change seemed to hold great promise, but fissures have grown, partly between and among the country’s numerous ethnic groups. At stake is the state’s stability and the post-1991 ethno-federalist system, which many Ethiopians support as guaranteeing local autonomy, and many others oppose as sowing division and undermining effective central government. War between the federal and Tigray governments broke out in the northern region in late 2020 as these tensions came to the fore. Through its research and advocacy, Crisis Group works to end the fighting and ward off similar conflict elsewhere, with the long-term goal of encouraging comprehensive and inclusive national dialogue about the country’s political future.
A preliminary agreement with Somaliland giving landlocked Ethiopia access to the Gulf of Aden has heightened tensions in the Horn of Africa, a region already in turmoil. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain the implications of the controversial accord.
Leadership of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fractured, violence in Amhara and Oromia regions remained rampant, and relations with Mogadishu and Cairo grew more strained.
TPLF leadership splintered. National Election Board of Ethiopia 9 Aug registered TPLF as new party under “special conditions”, saying it must conduct general assembly within six months and choose new leadership to finalise registration. Ruling fractured TPLF, with faction led by party chairman Debretsion Gebremichael 11 Aug rejecting decision and insisting on restoration of party’s former legal status; faction led by Tigray Interim Administration President Getachew Reda, meanwhile, advocated closer ties with federal govt. Debretsion’s faction 13-19 Aug held party congress despite national election board warning it did not comply with body’s ruling; congress ended with election of new leadership that excludes Reda and his allies (who boycotted conference and held their own meeting), marking major shift within party’s power structure. Tigray military leaders 8 Aug warned they will not tolerate anything that undermines peace.
Amhara region remained wracked by govt-insurgent fighting. Clashes between security forces and Fano militants occurred in West Gojjam, East Gojjam, North Wello, North Shewa, Central Gondar, North Gondar and South Gondar zones as hopes for peace talks faltered amid tensions among Fano groups. Meanwhile, UN 14 Aug reported unidentified armed group killed humanitarian worker in North Wello.
Conflict persisted in Oromia amid tensions within Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Federal-OLA clashes persisted in region’s West Guji, North, South West and East Shewa, and West, Kellem and Horo Guduru Wollega zones, with civilians frequently targeted. Govt made little effort to resume talks despite insecurity, while tensions within OLA worsened; notably, OLA leader Jaal Marroo Dirribaa 14 Aug accused elements within insurgency of collaborating with govt.
Tensions with Somalia and Egypt intensified over defence pact. In context of heightened tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa over latter’s port deal with Somaliland, presidents of Egypt and Somalia 14 Aug signed defence pact; weeks later, Cairo 27 Aug delivered weapons to Mogadishu, prompting Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry 28 Aug to accuse latter of “colluding with external actors to destabilise the region”. Addis Ababa next day sent new ambassador to Somaliland.
The big question many have is if [Ethiopian Prime Minister] Abiy Ahmed could position himself as a mediator between [Sudan's army chief] Burhan and the UAE.
Any serious failure in implementing the agreements [between Ethiopia's federal government and Tigrayan leaders] raises the risks of a disastrous return to large-scale war...
The deal [with Tigrayan leaders] was a huge diplomatic and political victory for the [Ethiopian] federal government.
Now Tigrayan reports ... of a large-scale incursion into Tigray from the north by Eritrean and federal forces. So, it is evident that the conflict is now seriously escala...
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Ethiopia scholar Christopher Clapham about Addis Ababa’s bid for its own seaport, including its controversial recent deal with Somaliland, as well as the many internal crises facing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland, about the new crisis engulfing Ethiopia’s Amhara region and escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
A rebellion in the Amhara region risks plunging Ethiopia into wider conflict. The federal government should seek talks with the militants as part of efforts to resolve the country’s interlocking crises. Outside powers should keep nudging Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to take this conciliatory tack.
This edition includes entries on Bangladesh, DR Congo, Ethiopia and Somaliland, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
The CrisisWatch Digest Ethiopia offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.
A victim’s relative is among those accusing Meta in a Kenyan court of failing to adequately police incendiary speech on Facebook during Ethiopia’s civil war. Much greater effort from the company is warranted. But Meta’s task is hardly straightforward.
In this video series, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia William Davison explains the context surrounding the recent truce that put a stop to the fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region. He discusses the situation preceding the ceasefire, what it looks like, and the challenges it faces in its implementation.
Ethiopia’s federal government and leaders in the war-torn Tigray region signed a peace accord on 2 November, followed by an implementation deal ten days later. After making these steps toward ending the conflict, all parties must act responsibly to build a solid foundation for peace.
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