Azerbaijan is keen to resettle territories regained from Armenian control. Landmines are its largest headache. To woo foreign support, Baku should be more welcoming of outside expertise. Along with Yerevan, it should also unlink demining from the conflict and consider joining the landmine ban treaty.
Baku and Yerevan overcame major stumbling block in peace talks, frontlines remained relatively calm despite occasional incidents, and relations with Iran remained fragile.
Baku and Yerevan agreed to defer corridor issue amid ongoing peace efforts. Presidential aide Elchin Amirbayov 7 Aug told media outlet RFE/RL that Armenia and Azerbaijan had agreed to remove references to development of transport corridor linking Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan from draft peace treaty and to “refer to it at a later stage”; Yerevan next day confirmed announcement. Decision removed key sticking point in talks, and indicated sides could be opting for shorter, simplified statement, rather than the detailed agreement previously envisioned. Moscow appeared to insist on continued discussions about issue, however, given that the 2020 ceasefire deal potentially paved way for major Russian security role along corridor. Notably, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 19 Aug urged sides “to follow the spirit and letter” of 2020 agreement, while President Aliyev and Russian President Putin 28 Aug reportedly exchanged views about “opening of the transport corridor”.
Baku reported several small incidents along frontline. Baku 15, 16, 18 Aug accused Armenian forces of firing at military positions in traditionally calm areas of Nakhchivan, 19 Aug claimed its troops had come under fire along main road leading from Armenia to Kelbajar district; Baku same day said it had destroyed Armenian quadcopter in Lachin district. Yerevan denied all incidents and 15 Aug restated its June proposal to establish mechanism for investigating alleged ceasefire violations, which outgoing EU Special Representative Toivo Klaar 16 Aug reiterated support for.
Important international developments. Baku 20 Aug applied for BRICS membership after Putin’s 18-19 Aug state visit. Meanwhile, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu 6 Aug met with Aliyev in capital Baku following trip to Iranian capital Tehran; visit came amid speculation that Iran – which accuses Baku of hosting Israeli military bases – could target Azerbaijan in retaliation for July assassination of Hamas political leader in Tehran, which it blamed on Israel; Russian media portrayed visits as effort to prevent all-out war in Middle East.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts, about where things stand between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deadly border clashes in September and whether a peace agreement might be within reach.
A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan about the state of the UN as world leaders meet for General Assembly week, and also catches up with Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker about the latest from Ukraine and violence on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to Crisis Group’s South Caucasus expert Olesya Vartanyan about the conflict in and over Nagorno-Karabakh, a year on from a Russian-brokered ceasefire that put an end to renewed large-scale fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile. The parties should establish a formal communication channel to address urgent post-war problems, Russian peacekeepers need a clearer mandate and aid agencies must be granted access to the conflict zone.
Russian mediation succeeded in ending the six-week war in Nagorno-Karabakh but left much unresolved, chiefly the region’s future status. If the cessation of hostilities is to become a sustainable peace, the parties should start by cooperating on humanitarian relief and trade before tackling larger questions.
Fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh is decimating towns and cities, displacing tens of thousands and killing scores. Combatants must cease attacks on populated areas and let humanitarian aid through. International actors, notably the UN and OSCE, should send monitors and push harder for a ceasefire.
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