In mid-August 2021, Taliban militants swept into Kabul, completing their takeover of Afghanistan and marking a new phase in what has been the world’s most lethal conflict in recent years. The U.S.-backed government in place since 2001 is gone, as are almost all U.S. and NATO troops. As the new dispensation takes shape, Crisis Group remains focused on promoting a deep understanding of events on the ground and helping the various stakeholders inside and outside the country comprehend their counterparts' motives and political constraints. We also aim to advance policies that improve security and promote inclusive governance.
The Taliban have instituted a ban on narcotics in Afghanistan. While that has led to a massive drop in production, it is hitting the rural poor particularly hard. Foreign donors should work with the government to ensure the policy does not further undermine vulnerable populations.
Taliban strengthened regional ties, including with Uzbekistan, and banned UN special rapporteur on human rights from country; jihadist group IS-KP claimed deadly attack.
Taliban authorities engaged in regional and international diplomacy. Uzbekistan PM Abdulla Aripov 17 Aug arrived in capital Kabul, first visit by any prime minister to capital since Taliban takeover. Parties signed 35 bilateral trade and investment agreements worth $2.5bn. United Arab Emirates (UAE) 22 Aug confirmed Mawlawi Badreddin Haqqani as Taliban’s representative in UAE’s capital Abu Dhabi; while UAE does not formally recognise de facto Taliban administration, Haqqani’s appointment is significant for being only second of its kind after China accepted Taliban envoy in Jan 2024. Kazakhstan deputy FM Alibek Bakayev 22 Aug accepted Taliban nominee, Muhammad Ur Rehman Rahmani, as Afghanistan’s Chargé d’Affaires as sides seek to enhance bilateral economic and aid cooperation. Previously, Taliban’s prime minister office 10 Aug stated it sent 41 officials to China for professional training.
Authorities imposed travel ban on UN rights rapporteur. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid 20 Aug told local media that de facto authorities banned Richard Bennett, UN Special Rapporteur for human rights in Afghanistan, from entering country, alleging “he was assigned to spread propaganda in Afghanistan”. Bennett next day criticised ban as “step backwards”, reiterated commitment to impartially document and assess rights violations. Taliban Emir 8 Aug issued decree announcing judicial punishments for govt officials who miss congregational prayers. Morality law 22 Aug announced codified Taliban social restrictions, notably limiting women’s rights and curtailing press freedoms.
IS-KP launched deadly attack. Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) 11 Aug claimed responsibility for explosion that targeted bus carrying Hazara civilians in capital Kabul; attack left one killed and injured thirteen. In another incident, six people 22 Aug died in mine blast in Dara Noor district.
In other important developments. Authorities 18 Aug held military parade at former U.S. airbase in Bagram, Parwan Province, to celebrate three-year rule; Chinese and Iranian officials attended. Central Bank 7 Aug doubled weekly cash withdrawal limit for individuals from $1,000 to $2,000, also raising monthly limit from $3,000 to $6,000.
The more isolated the Taliban becomes, the more they turn to China to replace the diplomatic weight the US previously provided.
Most regional capitals are not allowing the issue of non-recognition [of the Taliban] to hinder their relations with Kabul.
As Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban severed, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has also gotten cold feet in their engagement [with the Taliban].
The flood of outrage from the West will strengthen the resolve of the Taliban leadership [in Afghanistan], which defines itself as a bulwark against the outside world.
In August 2021, as foreign troops departed, Taliban insurgents seized power in Kabul, bringing the country back under their rule. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Graeme Smith, drawing upon Crisis Group’s research across Afghanistan, assesses the regime’s record and its implications for international policy.
Negotiations with the Afghan Taliban have failed to make their regime more politically inclusive or respectful of women’s rights. The diplomatic agenda should be more focused, with issues like security cooperation and economic stability insulated from a main track regarding international recognition of the Taliban.
This week on Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon, Ibraheem Bahiss and Olga Oliker to discuss the ISIS-claimed attack on a music venue in a Moscow suburb, the global threat ISIS and its affiliates pose and what the strike might mean for Russia and the war in Ukraine.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts and external speakers discuss the ways governments around Afghanistan are engaging with the de facto authorities on pressing issues.
Even as many diplomats shun the Taliban regime, protesting its treatment of women and girls, emissaries of countries near Afghanistan have sought dealings with Kabul in areas like security and commerce. It is a worthwhile endeavour, and the West should not stand in the way.
Western sanctions on the Taliban regime for its restrictions on women’s rights are plunging Afghanistan into isolation, including from its neighbours. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group outlines ways the EU can support regional diplomacy and mitigate the country’s socio-economic crisis.
Pakistan has started repatriations that could force millions of Afghans back to their crisis-wracked home country. As Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss explains in this Q&A, the policy could bring further trouble to the region, notwithstanding Islamabad’s efforts to justify itself on security grounds.
Surviving the impact of climate change and adapting to harsher new environments are collective tasks that need the cooperation of all countries, even Afghanistan under the outcast Taliban regime.
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