After three decades of on-and-off conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, relations between the two countries are at a turning point. Their 2020 war saw Baku regain most of the territory it lost to Armenia in the 1990s. Azerbaijan’s one-day operation in September 2023 took back the rest of the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, part of which had de facto remained governed by ethnic Armenian officials. Now Armenia faces a humanitarian crisis as it struggles to manage both the refugees who fled in 2020 and over 100,000 more who vacated Karabakh in 2023. The risk of further fighting persists: the two states remain at odds on issues regarding, among other things, border demarcation and transport links. Through fieldwork and advocacy, Crisis Group works to promote integration and resettlement prospects for displaced people including, but not limited to, the Armenians who left Karabakh and the Azerbaijanis who were pushed out of the territory 30 years ago and seek to return. The long-term goal is to build peace via normalised relations between the two countries, renewed trade and transport links and regional integration.
Tens of thousands of people from Nagorno-Karabakh have streamed into Armenia following Azerbaijan’s one-day offensive ending the enclave’s de facto self-governance. Outside powers should focus on meeting the refugees’ needs, protecting those few residents who wish to remain and preventing renewed conflict in the region.
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled on provisional measures for ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh (NK).
International Court of Justice announced provisional measures for NK. Following Armenia’s Oct submission to ICJ requesting provisional measures against Azerbaijan for what it calls “ethnic cleansing” in NK, ICJ 17 Nov published preliminary order: court decided that Azerbaijan should ensure free return and departure of ethnic Armenians from NK, along with protection of those who decide to stay; it also called on Azerbaijan to preserve their “registration, identity and private property documents”. ICJ ordered Azerbaijan to submit report to Court in two months. Baku same day welcomed decision, highlighting how court had “reconfirmed Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and rejected Armenia’s call for Azerbaijan to withdraw troops from NK, protect cultural sites and release all military and civilian detainees.
Azerbaijan handed out fifteen-year sentence for war crimes in first NK war. Baku court 7 Nov sentenced ethnic Armenian from NK Vagif Khachatryan, arrested in July while travelling along Lachin road to Armenia for medical treatment, to fifteen years in prison for alleged involvement in 1991 Meshali massacre; according to court, Armenian armed attack on Meshali village killed 25 Azerbaijanis, injured fourteen and forcibly expelled 358 people. Khachatryan has repeatedly denied all charges.
Azerbaijan does not trust Western incentives for peace talks … [Azerbaijanis] would like to see more emphasis on issues such as investments and reconstruction.
In my meetings with displaced people scattered throughout Armenia … I have not met a single person who is considering returning to Nagorno-Karabakh any time soon.
Nagorno-Karabakh is at the center of Armenian identity, and the Russians allowed it to collapse. They lost Armenian society.
It was quite obvious … that any military action [by Azerbaijan] that was to take place in [Nagorno-Karabakh], it would lead to the defeat of the local Armenian side.
The biggest problem … is what to do with the many displaced [Armenians] who cannot return to the villages that were captured by Azerbaijan [in Nagorno-Karabakh].
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks with Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev about Azerbaijan’s military action in Karabakh, its humanitarian fallout and prospects for peace between Baku and Yerevan.
In this online event Crisis Group experts discuss the latest developments in Nagorno-Karabakh and prospects for de-escalating tensions and a peace agreement.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are holding peace talks in Washington DC. It’s a critical moment for Nagorno-Karabakh
As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue, Baku has opened a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, the sole road connecting Armenia to the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, raising fears of a new surge in fighting. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts discuss the risks.
The EU is sending a mission to monitor the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains what else the EU and its member states can do to avert another war and revitalise peace talks.
The European Union is sending monitors to Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan, so as to lessen the danger of renewed fighting between the two countries over Nagorno-Karabakh and other issues. Brussels must give the mission the means and mandate it will need to succeed.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson speak with Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts, about where things stand between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deadly border clashes in September and whether a peace agreement might be within reach.
A fragile truce concluded on 14 September halted fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left hundreds of soldiers dead. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains what occurred and what needs to happen now to restart the peace process between the two foes.
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