Moscow sees itself as having embarked upon a broad confrontation with Western powers aimed at reshaping the global order. Its continuing war in Ukraine is thus meant both to subjugate that country and assert and cement Russia’s place in Europe and the world. Russia’s global diplomacy, meanwhile, also aims to increase Moscow’s influence and underline its great power status. Crisis Group reports on developments in the war in Ukraine, domestic processes in Russia, and Russia’s relations with its neighbours and countries around the world. In its advocacy, Crisis Group encourages policies that can lead to more sustainable peace in Ukraine, Europe, and all of the conflicts in which Russia is engaged.
Explore Crisis Group's map that shows movements of military units and fortification building below.
Ukraine launched incursion into Kursk region, capturing swath of Russian territory, killing dozens and forcing many thousands of civilians to evacuate; 26 people were freed in major Russia-West prisoner swap.
Ukraine launched surprise offensive into Kursk region. Ukraine 6 Aug launched surprise cross-border ground assault, making rapid gains into poorly-defended areas of western Kursk region in largest incursion into Russia since World War II. Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrskyi 27 Aug claimed forces had captured 1,294 sq km and 100 settlements, including Sudzha town, key Russian gas hub; they also destroyed three bridges over the Seym River and 15 Aug established military commandant’s office, indicating plans to try and hold on to territory. Russia 23 Aug accused Ukraine of attempts to attack Kursk nuclear power plant; head of UN nuclear watchdog Grossi 27 Aug warned about “possibility of a nuclear accident” after visiting site. According to Russian officials, well over 130,000 civilians had fled as of 31 Aug while incursion had left 31 dead, though actual toll could be much higher. Offensive began to slow late Aug as Russian units redeployed from other areas, though situation remained dynamic and heavy fighting continued, leaving open the possibility of further escalation along 1,200km-long frontline. Ukraine also attacked neighbouring Bryansk and Belgorod regions, though without much success. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure and military facilities escalated; notably, Ukrainian drones 28 Aug struck Kirov region for first time.
Peace talks remained elusive. President Putin 12 Aug claimed Ukraine had launched Kursk offensive “with the help of its Western masters” in attempt to “improve its negotiation position”, and ruled out negotiations with “people who indiscriminately attack civilians”. According to 17 Aug report by media outlet The Washington Post, Kyiv and Moscow were planning talks in Qatar on cessation of strikes on energy infrastructure, which latter postponed following incursion.
Russia completed largest prisoner exchange with West since Cold War. Russia, U.S. and other Western countries 1 Aug completed high-profile prisoner exchange involving 26 people, including U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich, Russian opposition politicians and Russian intelligence officers (see Russia/U.S.).
[Russia and Vietnam] were once on the same side of history, they shared the same ideology against Western capitalism and imperialism. And the legacy of shared ideology is...
Russian weapons and facilities are under solid control and there’s no evidence that Wagner or anyone else is looking to capture them.
If Russian soldiers feel their commanders are not in control, their trenches will be much easier to take for advancing Ukrainian troops.
I think they [the Kremlin] will use this [Biden's Kyiv trip] to repeat the line that this is a conflict between Russia and the West, not between Russia and Ukraine.
Russian engagement in the Sahel is very low-cost [financially]. It is distracting the West and diminishing the West’s symbolic power.
Moscow also has leverage over Türkiye in other conflict zones such as Syria and the South Caucasus, as well as a vested interest in driving a wedge between Turkey and its...
The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
This week on Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon, Ibraheem Bahiss and Olga Oliker to discuss the ISIS-claimed attack on a music venue in a Moscow suburb, the global threat ISIS and its affiliates pose and what the strike might mean for Russia and the war in Ukraine.
ISIS has claimed the lethal assault on a music venue outside the Russian capital. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Jerome Drevon explores the various implications of this attack.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk to Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, about Russia’s response to the war in Gaza, its engagement with Middle Eastern countries and prospects for regional arms control.
Crisis Group's Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker and Senior Russia analyst Oleg Ignatov discuss the aftermath of the mutiny in Russia and what the future holds for the group.
On 24 June, President Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge in over two decades at Russia’s helm: a mutiny by a mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explore the implications for Putin’s rule and Russian foreign policy.
This week, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Jean-Hervé Jezequel and Richard Gowan about Wagner’s mutiny in Russia, what it means for the Ukraine war and for places in Africa where Wagner operates – particularly Mali, where the government’s ties to Wagner have informed its recent demand that UN peacekeepers leave.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts discuss the implications of the Wagner rebellion for Putin’s rule, the war in Ukraine, Russian foreign politics and the country’s power projections abroad.
In this Twitter Space, Crisis Group experts explore about the need for and purpose of a tribunal on the crime of aggression.
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