Intensifying conflict between military and EMC faction raised concerns about security at October COP16 Biodiversity Summit in Colombia; Indigenous groups faced violence from land invaders. 

In Colombia, armed group violence raised security concerns ahead of COP16. Intensifying clashes in Aug between military and faction of EMC led by Iván Mordisco, as well as threat of fighting between rival EMC factions in Amazon region (see Colombia), elevated concerns about insecurity at COP16 Biodiversity Summit in Oct in Cali city. Fears had escalated in July when EMC threatened to target summit after talks between Mordisco’s faction and govt collapsed, though Mordisco later promised not to disrupt it. FM Luis Gilberto Murillo 27 Aug said security forces have an operation in place to guarantee safety of summit participants. Meanwhile, guerrilla group National Liberation Army (ELN) 26 Aug attacked major oil pipeline in Saravena municipality, Arauca department, causing considerable environmental destruction.

In Peru and Brazil, Indigenous groups faced violence from land invaders. In Brazil, farmers 3 Aug attacked Guarani Kaiowá Indigenous community over land claims in Douradina municipality, Mato Grosso do Sul State, injuring eight; unidentified perpetrator next day set tents erected by Indigenous community ablaze. Attacks reflect trend of escalating violence against Indigenous groups and land invasions in Amazon region. In Peru, for example, members of Mashco Piro, an uncontacted Indigenous group, late July attacked illegal loggers encroaching on their land with bows and arrows. 

Russia completed largest prisoner exchange with West since Cold War. 

Russia, U.S. and other Western countries 1 Aug completed high-profile prisoner exchange involving 26 people, including U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich, Russian opposition politicians and Russian intelligence officers. Exchange took place in Türkiye's capital Ankara with Turkish coordination.

Diplomatic relations with Niger continued to warm; jihadist insecurity persisted, particularly in transboundary parks.

Beninese-Nigerien ties slowly improved. Despite positive bilateral visits in July, Nigerien President Gen. Tiani 3 Aug reiterated claims Beninese govt was hosting French “subversive elements” working to destabilise Niger, said restoring relations would depend on assurances Benin posed no security threat. Steady de-escalation, however, continued despite rhetoric, with Nigerien authorities 6 Aug accepting credentials presented by new Beninese ambassador. In another sign of warming ties, govt 16 Aug authorised resumption of trade transporting Nigerien crude oil through Sémé port; land border, however, remained closed.

Jihadist violence continued in northern departments. Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims 9 Aug killed two soldiers near Porga town, Atacora department; Porga one of main entrances to Pendjari National Park which remains vulnerable, along with W Park, to jihadist infiltration from Burkina Faso and Niger despite ongoing deployment of troops in area.

In another important development. Beninese security forces 12 Aug reportedly seized and extradited govt-critical blogger alias “Brother Hounvi” from Togo’s capital Lomé; opposition 19 Aug criticised arrest of blogger, whose trial on charges of publishing false news due to begin 7 Oct. Incident sparked tensions with Togo, as Beninese authorities allegedly did not inform Togolese counterparts about planned arrest (see Togo).

Large-scale violence continued while President Capt. Traoré reported recent coup; military authorities continued with authoritarian tactics. 

Large-scale attacks underscored widespread violence and high civilian casualties. Suspected al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) jihadists 9 Aug attacked military convoy carrying over 1,000 civilians between Ougarou and Boungou towns, East region; local sources reported at least 130 soldiers, military auxiliaries and civilians killed or missing, with significant military equipment seized. JNIM 24 Aug attacked villagers digging trench to protect Barsalogho town, Centre-North region, reportedly killing hundreds; UN Sec Gen Guterres 27 Aug “strongly condemned” attack, which provoked domestic uproar. Other violence reported throughout month, in particular in Centre-North, East, Centre-East, Boucle du Mouhoun and Sahel regions. In East, unconfirmed local reports claimed at least 80 civilians killed during military 6-10 Aug anti-JNIM operations in Manni commune, East region.

Amid insecurity, president talked of “destabilisation” attempt. During national TV broadcast, Traoré 6 Aug alleged he had been subjected to and overcome recent coup; without providing specific details, president claimed security officials collaborated with jihadist groups supported by Western intelligence working from neighbouring country. Allegations remained unconfirmed but reports have emerged for several months of unrest within army, and July arrest of former senior military official may be related to incident; rumours of military instability likely to continue amid inability to address insecurity.

Govt’s repressive tendencies persisted. Traoré govt continued to silence dissent and any opposition to its interests; police 1 Aug arrested lawyer and civil society figure Guy-Hervé Kam – for third time in 2024 – for alleged involvement in “destabilisation”. Forcible enrolment in security forces continued; authorities 12 Aug ordered seven judicial officials to frontlines to fight jihadists; officials had reportedly been involved in recent legal decisions that went against figures close to govt. Magistrates union 15 Aug said decision intended as “humiliation and intimidation” and “sabotage of the authority of justice”. Unconfirmed social media reports mid-Aug alleged journalist previously sent to frontline had been killed.

In another important international development. Denmark 26 Aug announced closure of embassies in Burkina Faso and Mali (see Mali). 

Preparations for 2025 elections continued amid further efforts to sideline opposition; concerns rose over condition of Burundian refugees in Tanzania. 

Measures for 2025 legislative polls faced scepticism. Electoral commission 2 Aug asserted readiness for upcoming 2025 legislative elections, citing sufficient budget. Concerns persisted, however, over underrepresentation of Muslim community members in electoral commission, absence of Catholic Church representatives and perceived short timeframe for appointing independent electoral commissioners. Meanwhile, opposition and local residents accused ruling CNDD-FDD party youth wing Imbonerakure of 19 Aug onwards forcibly coercing financial contributions to CNDD-FDD electoral campaign in Bujumbura, Makamba and Rutana provinces. 

Opposition continued to face state-sponsored harassment. Opposition coalition CNARED-GIRITEKA 13 Aug accused CNDD-FDD of disseminating false leaflets to discredit them and of escalating ethnic tensions. Security forces also continued repression of opposition; intelligence agents 2-3 Aug abducted three individuals in Bujumbura city, including opposition activist; SOS Media Burundi 7 Aug reported Imbonerakure members in Giharo district, Rutana, had raped wife of former ruling party activist who joined opposition UPRONA party. Amid oppressive climate, rights group Amnesty International 21 Aug issued report criticising “wave of repression”.

Condition of Burundian refugees in Tanzania came to fore. Amid mid-Aug reports of detention and assaults of Burundian nationals near Nduta and Nyarugusu refugee camps, joint Burundian-Tanzanian delegation 6-7 Aug visited camps, affirming plans to repatriate tens of thousands by years-end. Meanwhile, locals 8 Aug reported Rwandan armed group presence in Bukinanyana district, Cibitoke province, alleging their involvement in extortion and theft near Kibira natural reserve, causing displacement among locals. More Imbonerakure members reportedly received paramilitary training in Cibitoke early Aug onwards, ahead of suspected deployment to DR Congo. 

In another important development. President Ndayishimiye 14 Aug granted presidential pardon to journalist Floriane Irangabiye, imprisoned since Jan 2023 for criticising govt, sparking hope of potential other amnesties. 

Violence continued in Anglophone and Far North regions, while also flaring in previously calm North region; restrictions on critics continued ahead of 2025 election.  

Amid Anglophone separatist-related violence, UN rights chief urged dialogue. In Anglophone regions, Ambazonia rebels 7-9 Aug killed four police officers and one civilian in Bamenda town (North West, NW); military retaliation left at least one commercial motorbike rider dead. Suspected rebels 15 Aug burned five taxis in Bamenda. Roadside bombs 16-17 Aug exploded in Jakiri town (NW), killing one police officer. Rebels 24 Aug killed three police officers in Buea city (South West, SW) while military same day killed separatist fighter in Bambui township (NW). Anglophone rebels plan two-week lockdown around 9 Sept school resumption. UN human rights chief Volker Türk 5-7 Aug met with PM Ngute and key ministers, denouncing both separatist and army violations and lack of accountability, urged improved humanitarian access and dialogue; separatists criticised Türk for not visiting Anglophone regions. 

Jihadist-related insecurity continued in Far North. In Mayo-Sava department, soldiers 16 Aug killed suspected jihadist in Kolofata town while Boko Haram 22 Aug killed four civilians in Kerawa town; insurgents carried out raids to steal food, cattle and motorbikes in department throughout month. Militants 28 Aug reportedly killed seven special forces soldiers around Djibrilli locality, Mozogo commune, Mayo Tsanaga division, burning three patrol vehicles. 

Violence flared in North region. Bandits 20 Aug kidnapped seven farmers in Touboro commune along Central African Republic border but abandoned them after meeting military patrol; some eight others kidnapped in area in Aug.

Political climate remained tense ahead of 2025 presidential election. Regulator early Aug banned two debate programs on private Équinoxe Télévision. Lawyer of social media activist Ramon Cotta 21 Aug confirmed client held by gendarmes in capital Yaoundé, following alleged late July extradition from Gabon. Meanwhile, apparent public calls by supporters endorsing President Biya in cities of Buea and Mamfe (both SW) 13 and 17 Aug respectively and Mokolo (Far North) 28 Aug suggested plans for his candidacy for 2025 poll. Electoral commission reported 7.9mn registered, under half of total eligible, ahead of 31 Aug registration deadline.

Prospect of ceasefire created cracks among rebel alliance; deadly violence on civilians persisted and govt postponed local elections. 

Ceasefire opportunity sparked divisions among rebels and govt. In 26 July document circulating publicly 4 Aug onwards, Gen. Ali Darassa, founder of Fulani-led Unity for Peace in Central African Republic (UPC) armed group, announced ceasefire and expressed willingness to seek compromise with govt “aimed at restoring peace, security and social cohesion”. Darassa’s decision, however, caused discord within Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebel alliance – which includes UPC and five other armed groups; some factions favour continuing violent struggle rather than entering dialogue. CPC general coordinator and former President Bozizé – in exile in Guinea-Bissau – 5 Aug dismissed Darassa as alliance’s chief of staff for high treason, saying Darassa’s move did not bind coalition, exposing rifts among rebels. Opinions also divided within President Touadéra’s circle; presidential advisor Fidèle Gouandjika 6 Aug argued for continued military action, but disarmament and reintegration minister Jean Wilibiro Sacko 8 Aug affirmed govt’s decision to pursue dialogue with Darassa. Govt also engaged in talks with representatives of Movement for Central Africa, armed group reportedly 1,000-strong based along border with Chad.

Armed groups continued to cause harm to civilians. CPC fighters 8 Aug killed five traders in ambush in Gambo sub-prefecture, Mbomou prefecture. Despite formal incorporation into army, ethnic Azandé militia fighters pursued aggressive stances against civilians; combatants 8 Aug conducted searches in Zemio town, Haut-Mbomou prefecture, arresting at least ten civilians, mostly Muslim traders, accusing them of collaborating with UPC rebels. Meanwhile, Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation rebel group 13 Aug killed two Russian paramilitaries in ambush near mining site in Markounda sub-prefecture, Ouham prefecture.

Govt postponed local elections over financial issues. Govt 22 Aug announced postponement of local and municipal elections – originally scheduled for Oct – to April 2025; decision related to funding challenges, as electoral body only raised around half of required budget. Although some opposition leaders welcomed decision and pressed for dialogue, opposition coalition Republican Bloc for the Defence of the Constitution continued to call for boycott of polls, demanding reform of electoral body. 

Govt tightened its authoritarian grip as debate over constituencies and parliament continued; local elections called for December.

Authorities silenced dissent following adoption of several bills. Controversy continued over late July laws on electoral boundaries and composition of parliament – both promulgated 16 Aug – that critics claim gerrymander in favour of northern provinces loyal to current regime, highlighting divisions between regions. Security forces 5 Aug stormed Catholic church in capital N’Djamena and arrested Father Madou Simon-Pierre, southerner and critic of new law. Arrest sparked outrage, forcing authorities to release him next day. Govt 9 Aug banned conference of opposition coalition Federal Bloc – which advocates federalism – for disturbing public order. In further sign of regime’s authoritarian drift, armed men 7 Aug arrested Oumar Ali Badour, editor-in-chief of Tchadinfos news site. Authorities did not comment on arrest, sparking outrage among journalists; Badour released next day.

Intercommunal violence continued. Altercation between herder and farmer 10 Aug after cattle destroyed latter’s field left farmer injured in Bouna sub-prefecture, Mandoul region; clash between farmers and herders 27 Aug killed civilian and wounded others near Mao city, Kanem region. 

Local elections called for Dec. Electoral body 21 Aug announced legislative, provincial and municipal elections will be held 29 Dec. Authorities said existing electoral register will be used due to lack of time, material and financial resources. Ruling-Patriotic Salvation Movement party said elections would allow return to constitutional order by year-end but opposition criticised timing as rushed without fully resolving long-standing issues including constituency boundaries.

In other important developments. Rights group Human Rights Watch 6 Aug released report accusing army of torture, inhumane treatment and forced labour at Koro-Toro prison, 600km north of N’Djamena in desert; govt next day rejected report, calling it diplomatic conspiracy and threatening legal action. Meanwhile, Mediapart newspaper 23 Aug reported French authorities had opened investigation into Déby’s property holdings in France, allegedly valued at €30mn, reportedly fuelling N’Djamena-Paris tensions. Aid trucks began crossing border into Sudan’s Darfur region after agreement by various Sudanese parties (see Sudan).

Opposition parties displayed unity as political jockeying continued ahead of 2025 presidential election.

Opposition parties jointly called for electoral reforms. Exiled political leader and former PM Soro 9 Aug said his Generations and Peoples in Solidarity (GPS) party ready for “sincere collaboration” with former President Gbagbo’s African People’s Party-Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI) party. Announcement followed Gbagbo’s July call for opposition to unite; both Gbagbo and Soro, however, are currently ineligible to run because of previous convictions. Representatives of GPS and PPA-CI, along with largest opposition party Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire and several other opposition figures, same day held joint press conference; parties called for electoral reforms ahead of 2025 presidential election, including extension of period for revising electoral list and inclusive national dialogue before vote. Long-term solidarity between opposition leaders remained uncertain as elections approach. President Ouattara yet to announce who will be candidate for ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace; speculation that he will run for controversial fourth term continued.

Govt maintained hard line against Soro’s allies. Authorities 9 Aug arrested GPS party official Mamadou Traoré for “inciting hatred” following 7 Aug social media posts criticising Ouattara. Authorities 14 Aug detained Kando Soumahoro, another GPS party leader, for illegal participation in political party and disturbing public order after he attended 9 Aug opposition press conference; GPS party officially dissolved in 2021 after Soro and 19 allies convicted of “insurrection”. Court in Abidjan city 16 Aug sentenced Traoré and 21 Aug sentenced Soumahoro to two years in prison each.

Amid ongoing foreign mediation efforts, ceasefire in North Kivu province suffered violations as M23 rebels gained further territory; court handed death sentence to dozens of M23-linked figures.

Army-M23 clashes resumed despite govt-Rwanda ceasefire. While M23 rebels claimed compliance with Kinshasa-Kigali ceasefire that came into effect 4 Aug, group continued advance in North Kivu. Rebels 3-7 Aug captured Ishasha, Katwiguru, Kisharo, Nyamilima and Nyakakoma towns with minimal resistance, taking control of southern and eastern shores of Lake Edouard and areas along Ugandan border; 20 Aug captured Kikuvo settlement in Lubero territory. Govt also reported 15 Aug clashes between M23 and pro-govt Wazalendo militias killed 16 villagers in Rutshuru territory. Fighting between army and rebels resumed 25 Aug with clashes in Kikubo village, Lubero, as both blamed the other for violating ceasefire. Meanwhile, Angolan-led mediation continued amid tensions (see Rwanda); Congolese FM Wagner 20-21 Aug met Rwandan counterpart Nduhungirehe in Angolan capital Luanda, with further meeting scheduled for Sept. Kinshasa 29 Aug announced it filed case against Kigali at East African Court of Justice, accusing Rwanda of violating its sovereignty and of crimes against civilians. 

Court sentenced tens of M23 affiliates to death. Military court 8 Aug sentenced in absentia Corneille Nangaa, head of pro-M23 politico-military group Congo River Alliance (AFC), to death for “high treason”, alongside 25 others including M23 head Bertrand Bisimwa; EU reiterated opposition to capital punishment while Nangaa dismissed verdict. Meanwhile, President Tshisekedi 6 Aug accused predecessor Kabila of supporting AFC and boycotting elections to prepare insurgency, claims Kabila’s allies 8 Aug rejected.

Other armed groups remained active, particularly in Ituri province. In Ituri, Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants 14-15 Aug launched assaults in Mambasa territory, killing at least 15 civilians. Meanwhile, army 27 Aug announced it had freed some 40 ADF hostages after operations in Mambasa and North Kivu’s Beni territory.

In other domestic developments. Following intense political negotiations, former PM Sama 12 Aug sworn in as senate speaker. Meanwhile, Tshisekedi’s party faced internal strife as senior party members 11 Aug ousted Sec Gen Augustin Kabuya, who refused to leave.