Brazil is in the midst of deep polarisation between left- and right-leaning political forces, with the former's champion, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, narrowly prevailing over the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential election. The road ahead could be rocky: Bolsonaro's loyalists are a sizeable bloc in the national legislature; his social base appears strong and defiant; and after several violent incidents marred the campaign, the risk of more cannot be discounted. The stakes of the struggle include the fate of the vast Amazon rainforest, which Lula has vowed to protect from logging, mining, ranching and other industries. Through advocacy and periodic reporting, Crisis Group works to lower the political temperature and encourage stability in the world's seventh most populous country.
El crimen organizado se ha infiltrado en la cuenca del Amazonas, buscando tierras para cultivar coca, ríos para traficar drogas y vetas de oro subterráneas. Estos grupos están poniendo en peligro la selva tropical y la seguridad de quienes intentan defenderla. Es urgente que los gobiernos regionales tomen medidas para su protección.
Days after Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s inauguration as president, Pro-Bolsonaro protesters stormed govt buildings, demanding military coup.
Rioters stormed govt buildings in attempt to reinstate Bolsonaro as president. Days after President Lula 1 Jan took office, supporters of former President Bolsonaro 8 Jan invaded presidential palace, Congress, and Supreme Court in capital Brasília, demanding military coup to reinstate Bolsonaro as president; they stole weaponry from vaults and caused millions of dollars in damage, including by smashing windows and furniture and destroying works of art. Lula same day declared state of emergency in Federal District, where Brasilia is located, until 31 Jan. Bolsonaro 9 Jan denied any involvement, claiming to have always acted lawfully.
Authorities arrested scores for attempted coup, evidence of army role in riots emerged. Police arrested over 1,500 protesters, 39 of whom were indicted by federal prosecutors on 16 Jan for crimes including attempted coup d’état. Supreme Court head Alexandre de Moraes 8 Jan suspended pro-Bolsonaro governor of Federal District Ibaneis Rocha for 90 days due to lack of action to contain protesters; Rocha 13 Jan responded, claiming army prevented police from removing pro-Bolsonaro protesters’ encampment in Brasília before riots. Police 10 Jan arrested former Commander of Federal District’s military police Colonel Fábio Augusto Vieira due to security lapses during riots; Vieira 12 Jan said army had twice blocked police from clearing encampment. Supreme Court 13 Jan approved request to investigate Bolsonaro’s role in protests. Authorities 14 Jan arrested Anderson Torres, Brasília’s security secretary and former minister of justice under Bolsonaro, on charges of “omission”; upon searching his home, they found draft decree that would allow electoral authorities to interfere with past presidential election results and annul Lula’s win. Lula 21 Jan fired army General Julio Cesar de Arruda for not following govt orders to dismantle pro-Bolsonaro tent. Police 27 Jan raided home of Leonardo Rodrigues de Jesus, Bolsonaro’s nephew, currently under investigation for role in riots.
El regreso de Lula a la presidencia augura un rol más importante para Brasil en la diplomacia multilateral. En este extracto del Watchlist 2023, Crisis Group insta a la UE y sus estados miembros a aprovechar al máximo esta oportunidad.
El asalto a las instituciones estatales brasileñas deliberadamente evocó la incursión de 2021 en el Capitolio estadounidense. Al igual que después de ese evento, la labor de las fuerzas del orden público se superpone con la tarea aún más delicada de identificar los círculos políticos y financieros que hicieron posible el asalto.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Ivan Briscoe and Renata Segura, Crisis Group’s Latin America director and deputy director, about President Lula’s election win in Brazil and whether a new group of leftist leaders across Latin America can help end some of the continent’s crises, notably in Venezuela and Haiti.
El presidente de Brasil Jair Bolsonaro corre el riesgo de perder las elecciones de octubre. Si impugna el resultado, su base de apoyo, reducida pero cada vez más de extrema derecha, podría salir a las calles. Las instituciones del Estado deben estar preparadas para afrontar acusaciones de fraude infundadas y para frenar la posible violencia.
A medida que gana impulso un juicio político contra el presidente Jair Bolsonaro, éste confía en el respaldo de las fuerzas armadas. ¿Mantendrán el rumbo los generales? ¿Podrían desligarse del presidente, arriesgando sus intereses institucionales? Estas preguntas, cruciales para la política brasileña, no tienen una respuesta obvia.
A pesar del manejo inadecuado de la pandemia, que ha cobrado más de 160 000 vidas, el presidente brasileño está gozando de un aumento en su popularidad gracias a las entregas de dinero de emergencia y a la reducción de tensiones políticas. Pero su fortuna puede cambiar y la amenaza que representa para la democracia brasileña resurgir nuevamente.
La frontera entre Brasil y su vecino en crisis, Venezuela, se ha convertido en una importante ruta de migración, un punto de acceso para el crimen y un sitio crítico de violencia.
La frontera entre Brasil y su vecino en crisis, Venezuela, se ha convertido en una importante ruta de migración, un punto de acceso para el crimen y un sitio crítico de violencia. Este es el primero de tres comentarios sobre las problemáticas fronteras de Venezuela.
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