Las autoridades electorales venezolanas proclamaron vencedor al actual presidente, Nicolás Maduro, en las elecciones presidenciales del 28 de julio, a pesar de la evidencia presentada por la oposición que mostraba que su candidato había ganado por una amplia mayoría. En estas preguntas y respuestas, Phil Gunson, experto de Crisis Group, analiza las implicaciones que las protestas subsiguientes podrían tener para la prolongada crisis venezolana.
CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
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The closer an armed group is to the population [in Colombia], the harder it is to move toward peace, because they are ever more a part of society.
The [Venezuelan] opposition has a massive opportunity [in the upcoming elections] to make it clear Maduro isn’t wanted.
The trend of violence against ex-combatants [in Colombia] is a strong deterrent to disarmament.
Violence in Colombia has long come from combats between illegal groups, and from the pressure they exert on civilians.
State presence [in Panama] overly focuses on border control and does not prioritise the protection of migrants.
Political misrule in Ecuador paled in comparison to what you saw … in Peru, and now Ecuador seems far worse off than Peru and Colombia in terms of basic human security.
In this video, Bram Ebus, Crisis Group's Andes Region expert delves into the rise of organised crime in the vast jungle region where the borders of Brazil, Colombia, and Peru converge.
El crimen organizado está floreciendo en la zona selvática dividida por las fronteras de Brasil, Colombia y Perú, lo que pone en grave peligro a las poblaciones y los ecosistemas del corazón de la Amazonía. Con la ayuda de los donantes, los tres Estados deben actuar con rapidez antes de que la actividad ilegal provoque daños irreversibles.
Los venezolanos acudirán a las urnas el 28 de julio. Las encuestas indican que unas elecciones limpias darían la victoria a la oposición en el país suramericano asolado por la crisis económica. Crisis Group habló con chavistas para explorar cómo responderán a las posibilidades de perder el poder.
As part of the 2016 peace deal, the Colombian government promised support to ex-combatants as they re-entered civilian society. Reintegration camps were supposed to aid in this process. As Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González reports, support has fallen short, especially for ex-combatants with disabilities.
On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss Venezuela’s presidential elections and its government’s claim to an oil rich region in neighbouring Guyana.
El presidente venezolano, Nicolás Maduro, está inclinando a su favor las elecciones presidenciales de julio, en violación del acuerdo de Barbados de 2023. Aunque Maduro debe enfrentar las consecuencias, EE. UU. debe adoptar un enfoque calibrado para la reimposición de sanciones.
This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
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