Venezuela is in the midst of a tense political standoff and socio-economic meltdown, with hyperinflation, violent crime, political repression and food shortages pushing nearly six million citizens to flee the country. Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro has grabbed power for the executive and dismantled democratic checks and balances, triggering moves backed by the U.S. and allies to unseat him and install an interim president. A negotiated restoration of legitimate and representative state institutions as well as urgent economic reform are vital if the country is to resolve the political crisis peacefully and reduce mass emigration. Crisis Group aims to engage national, Latin American and international players to build momentum for talks, strengthen human rights protections and help restore the rule of law.
El gobierno y la oposición de Venezuela han alcanzado un acuerdo que sentaría las bases para unas elecciones presidenciales competitivas en 2024. Podría suponer un gran avance en los esfuerzos por resolver la crisis política y socioeconómica del país. Sin embargo, el acuerdo aún no ha sido implementado y puede enfrentar obstáculos.
In crucial step toward competitive presidential poll, govt and opposition reached deal to improve electoral conditions, leading to substantial U.S. sanctions relief.
Govt and opposition struck deal to improve electoral conditions. Maduro govt and group of opposition parties known as Unitary Platform reached agreement in Barbados on minimum conditions for 2024 presidential poll. Notably, agreement fixes vote for unspecified date in second half of 2024, includes update of electoral registry and commits govt-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) to invite international ‘technical’ observation missions including from EU, UN and AU. Text says parties will promote “authorisation” of all candidates and political parties as long as they “meet requirements to participate in the presidential elections”; govt’s chief negotiator Jorge Rodríguez immediately interpreted clause as stating banned candidates cannot run, which would rule out opposition candidate (see below).
Washington provided ample sanctions relief. Welcoming agreement, U.S. 18 Oct issued broad authorisation of transactions involving Venezuela’s oil, gas and gold sectors, and removed ban on secondary trading of certain Venezuelan sovereign bonds, as well as debt and equity issued by state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela oil company. License lifting sanctions on oil and gas sector issued for six months, with Washington promising to renew it if Caracas complies with electoral agreement and releases U.S. and Venezuelan prisoners. Govt same day released five political prisoners.
María Corina Machado won opposition primary, govt later suspended results. Opposition 22 Oct held primary to select candidate for presidential election. Hardline politician María Corina Machado, currently banned from running for office, won overwhelmingly with 93% of vote after several prominent candidates pulled out of race in weeks before. Turnout was greater than expected, lending legitimacy to Machado’s candidacy for presidential election. Govt officials, however, alleged primary had been fraudulent and 24 Oct said opposition had inflated voter turnout; Attorney General Tarek William Saab next day announced criminal investigation into primary’s organisers. Govt-controlled Supreme Court 30 Oct suspended results of primary and ordered organisers to hand over all materials related to process; U.S. same day warned it would take action if govt fails to uphold commitments under electoral roadmap.
El Gobierno de Maduro [en Venezuela] tiene un interés en dar algunas concesiones desde el punto de vista político y electoral.
[Venezuelan President Maduro] can use repression and fraud to stay in power. But I think he would far rather win a relatively clean election.
Con elecciones críticas aproximándose, las negociaciones para resolver la crisis politica en Venezuela están estancadas. Para evitar prolongar el malestar del país, el gobierno, la oposición y las potencias extranjeras deberían acordar un plan que implique el alivio de las sanciones y pasos correspondientes por parte de Caracas hacia elecciones más justas y un mejor funcionamiento de las instituciones estatales.
El aislamiento internacional de Venezuela está disminuyendo aunque su crisis política sigue sin resolver. En este extracto del Watch List 2022 - Actualización de Otoño, Crisis Group explica lo que la UE y sus Estados miembros pueden hacer para facilitar el progreso en las negociaciones entre el gobierno y la oposición.
Crisis Group experts talk in this Twitter Space about what can be done to better protect Venezuelan migrants fleeing to Colombia from exploitation by criminal armed groups. The discussion was hosted by Bram Ebus, consultant for Latin America, Mariano de Alba, our senior advocacy advisor for Latin America and Glaeldys González, Giustra fellow for Latin America.
En años recientes, 2,5 millones de venezolanos han llegado a Colombia en busca de trabajo y refugio de la crisis socio-económica de su país. Pero hay peligros que les esperan, incluida la posibilidad de caer en garras del crimen organizado. El cambio de gobierno en Colombia es una oportunidad para generar cambios que hagan que los migrantes estén a salvo.
Hugo Chavez's charisma fuelled his revolution in Venezuela, but as Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson explains in this photo essay, part of a larger project on deadly violence in Latin America, part of his legacy is also rising crime and hunger.
In this week’s Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran expert Naysan Rafati and Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss the Ukraine war’s global repercussions.
Funcionarios estadounidenses de alto rango hicieron un viaje sorpresa a la capital de Venezuela, lo que sugiere un esfuerzo por mejorar las relaciones bilaterales y poner fin al enfrentamiento entre el gobierno de Maduro y sus opositores. El trasfondo es la invasión rusa de Ucrania, que podría estar cambiando los cálculos estratégicos a un océano de distancia.
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