Venezuela is in the midst of a tense political standoff and socio-economic meltdown, with hyperinflation, violent crime, political repression and food shortages pushing nearly six million citizens to flee the country. Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro has grabbed power for the executive and dismantled democratic checks and balances, triggering moves backed by the U.S. and allies to unseat him and install an interim president. A negotiated restoration of legitimate and representative state institutions as well as urgent economic reform are vital if the country is to resolve the political crisis peacefully and reduce mass emigration. Crisis Group aims to engage national, Latin American and international players to build momentum for talks, strengthen human rights protections and help restore the rule of law.
El presidente venezolano, Nicolás Maduro, está inclinando a su favor las elecciones presidenciales de julio, en violación del acuerdo de Barbados de 2023. Aunque Maduro debe enfrentar las consecuencias, EE. UU. debe adoptar un enfoque calibrado para la reimposición de sanciones.
Authorities blocked opposition coalition from registering their banned candidate or her replacement in bid to clear field of President Maduro’s strongest opponents for presidential poll.
Authorities blocked opposition from registering candidate for election. Govt-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) 5 March announced presidential poll would be held 28 July, resulting in election timetable compressed into under five months. Candidates 21-25 March registered their candidacy, leading to frenzied negotiations within opposition. Main opposition candidate María Corina Machado and opposition coalition Unitary Platform 22 March jointly announced that retired academic Corina Yoris would replace Machado as opposition’s unity candidate after govt refused to lift ban on her candidacy. Yet CNE, which had already annulled all but two of Unitary Platform’s parties, blocked Corina from registering, sparking outcry from opposition; move laid bare threat Machado and her substitute posed to Maduro if allowed to run.
Opposition party within coalition unilaterally registered their candidate. CNE 26 March announced that Manuel Rosales, whose Un Nuevo Tiempo is one of Unitary Platform’s four main parties, had registered his candidacy; Rosales perceived as lesser threat to Maduro’s re-election prospects. Opposition negotiator Stalin González 26 March justified decision, saying opposition’s abstentionism in past polls had “left Venezuelans without an option”. Next day, however, Unitary Platform managed to register retired diplomat Edmundo González as placeholder unity candidate; substitution permitted until 20 April. Meanwhile, President Maduro 25 March registered his candidacy alongside a dozen others, many of whom are allied with govt or suspected of acting in its interests.
International community condemned govt. Regional govts, including oft-discreet Colombia and Brazil, and U.S. 26 March expressed concern about situation. U.S. set to decide by 18 April whether to snapback sanctions on oil and gas sectors in light of Maduro’s violations of govt-opposition agreement in Barbados, though re-imposition may be delayed or partial.
In another important development. Lawmakers 21 March approved creation of new Venezuelan state in disputed Essequibo area, oil-rich region administered by Guyana, as govt used issue to foment nationalist sentiment; law also allows candidates for elected office to be barred for not supporting Venezuela’s claim.
The [Venezuelan] opposition has a massive opportunity [in the upcoming elections] to make it clear Maduro isn’t wanted.
El Gobierno de Maduro [en Venezuela] tiene un interés en dar algunas concesiones desde el punto de vista político y electoral.
[Venezuelan President Maduro] can use repression and fraud to stay in power. But I think he would far rather win a relatively clean election.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss Venezuela’s presidential elections and its government’s claim to an oil rich region in neighbouring Guyana.
El gobierno y la oposición de Venezuela han alcanzado un acuerdo que sentaría las bases para unas elecciones presidenciales competitivas en 2024. Podría suponer un gran avance en los esfuerzos por resolver la crisis política y socioeconómica del país. Sin embargo, el acuerdo aún no ha sido implementado y puede enfrentar obstáculos.
Con elecciones críticas aproximándose, las negociaciones para resolver la crisis politica en Venezuela están estancadas. Para evitar prolongar el malestar del país, el gobierno, la oposición y las potencias extranjeras deberían acordar un plan que implique el alivio de las sanciones y pasos correspondientes por parte de Caracas hacia elecciones más justas y un mejor funcionamiento de las instituciones estatales.
El aislamiento internacional de Venezuela está disminuyendo aunque su crisis política sigue sin resolver. En este extracto del Watch List 2022 - Actualización de Otoño, Crisis Group explica lo que la UE y sus Estados miembros pueden hacer para facilitar el progreso en las negociaciones entre el gobierno y la oposición.
Crisis Group experts talk in this Twitter Space about what can be done to better protect Venezuelan migrants fleeing to Colombia from exploitation by criminal armed groups. The discussion was hosted by Bram Ebus, consultant for Latin America, Mariano de Alba, our senior advocacy advisor for Latin America and Glaeldys González, Giustra fellow for Latin America.
En años recientes, 2,5 millones de venezolanos han llegado a Colombia en busca de trabajo y refugio de la crisis socio-económica de su país. Pero hay peligros que les esperan, incluida la posibilidad de caer en garras del crimen organizado. El cambio de gobierno en Colombia es una oportunidad para generar cambios que hagan que los migrantes estén a salvo.
Hugo Chavez's charisma fuelled his revolution in Venezuela, but as Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson explains in this photo essay, part of a larger project on deadly violence in Latin America, part of his legacy is also rising crime and hunger.
In this week’s Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran expert Naysan Rafati and Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss the Ukraine war’s global repercussions.
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