Iraq has been successively ravaged by the 1980-1988 war with Iran, crippling sanctions after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990, internal conflict after the U.S.-led invasion of 2003, and the transnational jihadists of Islamic State after 2014. Its multiple challenges further include sectarian violence and Kurdish separatism. Crisis Group aims to promote locally-centred stabilisation and better governance of post-ISIS Iraq in order to reduce the risk of violent flare-ups in liberated areas and mitigate the impact of foreign strategic competition, notably between Iran and the U.S. Through field research, advocacy and engagement with all sides, we urge countries involved in the anti-ISIS campaign to support security sector and institutional reform in Iraq as well. On the Kurdish front, we urge a return to a UN-led process to resolve the question of the disputed territories, especially Kirkuk, and of oil revenue-sharing.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Lahib Higel, Crisis Group’s Iraq expert, to discuss the recent escalation between U.S. forces and Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria and what it means for the presence of American troops in Iraq.
Iran-backed militia rockets injured U.S. troops in attack on airbase, govt signed security agreement with Türkiye amid anti-Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) operations and low-intensity Islamic State (ISIS) insurgency persisted.
Iran-backed groups launched attack injuring U.S. troops, govt delayed decision on U.S. troop drawdown. Iran-backed militia 5 Aug struck Ain al-Asad base in Anbar governorate with two rockets, reportedly injuring 14, including at least five U.S. personnel. Iraqi military next day condemned “reckless” attack; security officials 8 Aug said five people were arrested in connection with attack. Islamic Resistance in Iraq 18, 20 Aug claimed unconfirmed attacks on Israel. Foreign Ministry 15 Aug said that announcement of end date of U.S.-led coalition’s mission in Iraq was postponed to early Sept due to “latest developments”, without identifying developments.
Govt held security cooperation talks with Türkiye which continued striking PKK. Iraq and Türkiye 15 Aug held fourth High-Level Security Mechanism meeting in Turkish capital Ankara signed Memorandum of Understanding on military, security and counter-terrorism cooperation. Meanwhile, Ankara continued operations against PKK. Notably, Turkish defence ministry 7 Aug said PKK militants killed Turkish soldier in northern Iraq, 9 Aug said Türkiye “neutralised” 12 PKK militants, 12 Aug said Turkish airstrikes “neutralised” 17 PKK members in northern Iraq. Turkish drone 23 Aug killed two journalists in Kurdistan region. Supreme Judicial Council 1 Aug ruled to dissolve three Kurdish parties, Yazidi Freedom and Democracy Party, Democratic Struggle Front, and Party of Kurdistan Society’s Freedom (Tavgari Azadi) for association with banned PKK.
In other important developments. Nine months after provincial elections were held, disputed Kirkuk province 10 Aug elected Rebwar Taha of Patriotic Union of Kurdistan as new governor amid protests from Kurdistan Democratic Party and Iraqi Turkmen Front. Low-scale ISIS attacks continued; notably, in Kirkuk governorate, alleged ISIS attack 10 Aug reportedly killed one Hashd al-Shaabi member in Tuz Khurmatu district; airstrikes 29 Aug killed 14 alleged ISIS members. Iraqi and U.S. forces 29 Aug conducted joint operation against ISIS operatives in Western Anbar, which reportedly left 15 militants dead and seven U.S. soldiers injured.
Installing a monarchy that wasn’t very popular and that was overthrown in 1958 was the ignition for the many problems that the modern Iraqi state has faced.
The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq infused the country’s Kurds with renewed hope of loosening the bonds that tie them to Baghdad. But subsequent events have dampened that spirit. Despite considerable progress toward autonomy, the historical Kurdish predicament endures.
The core lesson of the 2003 Iraq war is that ruptures in autocratic settings are inherently fraught with risk. Policymakers should approach proposed interventions in such settings with caution.
The architects of the 2003 invasion of Iraq had grand visions of transforming the Middle East in favour of U.S. interests. Two decades later, it is clear that the venture was a failure not just in that respect, but in most others as well.
Iraq has a new government after months of delay, but various challenges to stability persist. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help support necessary reforms.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s Iraq expert Lahib Higel about the crisis in Iraq, with parties unable to form a government almost a year after elections and the deadliest clashes the Iraqi capital has seen in years erupting in late August.
Demonstrators are occupying parliament in Baghdad, with Iraq’s main political camps deeply divided. The standoff need not turn violent, if the country’s leaders can shift to dialogue with support from foreign partners.
Sinjar has yet to recover from the ravages of 2014, when ISIS subjected the population to unrelenting terror. Thousands remain displaced. To persuade them to return, the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments will need help from the current residents in improving governance and security.
Turkey is increasingly relying on airpower in its fight against the PKK. New parties have been drawn into the conflict as it spreads to new theatres in Iraq and Syria, which, for now at least, complicates potential efforts to settle things down.
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