Nigeria is confronted by multiple security challenges, notably the resilient Boko Haram Islamist insurgency in the north east, long-running discontent and militancy in the Niger Delta, increasing violence between herders and farming communities spreading from the central belt southward, and separatist Biafra agitation in the Igbo south east. Violence, particularly by the Boko Haram insurgency, has displaced more than two million people, created a massive humanitarian crisis, and prompted the rise of civilian vigilante self-defence groups that pose new policy dilemmas and possible security risks. Crisis Group seeks to help the Nigerian government by shedding new light on the country’s security challenges, de-escalating risks and tension, and encouraging regional and gender-specific approaches toward ending the violence durably.
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have left ECOWAS, the regional bloc that sanctioned them after military officers seized power in each. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi assesses the import of these events for West Africa’s security architecture and Nigeria’s influence therein.
Urban protests against economic and food crisis saw unrest amid looting and security forces’ crackdown; jihadist, bandit and other armed group violence persisted.
Youth-led demonstrations turned violent amid mob looting and govt repression. Youth organisations 1 Aug began planned ten days of protests against govt’s handling of economic and food crisis. While demonstrations in northern cities and federal capital Abuja flustered authorities, leaderless nature of movement led to looting in some places; in response, authorities sought to suppress protests, including through curfews, arrests and use of tear gas and live ammunition. Rights group Amnesty International said demonstrations left at least 22 people dead by 7 Aug, while organisers reported over 1,400 arrested as protests lost steam. President Tinubu 4 Aug called for dialogue but offered no response to protesters’ demands.
Army reported gains against jihadists in ongoing North East operations. In Borno state, air strikes 16 Aug killed at least 37 militants near Lake Chad; troops 17 Aug raided Boko Haram camp near Sambisa forest, killing three fighters including prominent commander Abu Rijab. Jihadists remained threat to civilians; in Yobe state, suspected Boko Haram fighters 30 Aug killed at least three students at religious school in Geidam area.
Banditry remained widespread in North West and North Central. Notably in Benue state, gunmen 8 Aug killed 74 in Ayati town, Ukum area. In Niger state, bandits 19 Aug killed 13 farmers in Shiroro area. In Sokoto state’s Sabon Birni area gunmen 20 Aug killed emir of Gobir town, kidnapped in July. In Zamfara state, residents 28 Aug repelled attack in Talata Mafara area, which killed at least 37 bandits. Over 200 persons abducted for ransom during month.
In other important developments. In Imo state, gunmen 3 Aug killed community leader and six village heads in Onuimo area. Enugu state govt 21 Aug said security forces in previous two weeks killed 27 including members of factional Biafra separatist group led by Finland-based agitator, Simon Ekpa. Members of Muslim sect 25 Aug clashed with police in Abuja; two police and unconfirmed others killed. In sign of rapprochement after months of heightened tensions, defence chief 28 Aug met Nigerien counterpart in Niger’s capital Niamey.
We must take these [Nigerian presidential elections] polls with a generous amount of salt.The poll samples are small and focusing on literate people.
The two jihadist groups in north-eastern Nigeria have bruised each other badly in internecine fighting. But they are still a menace to civilians, both in Nigeria and in the other Lake Chad states. The governments cannot afford to shift their gaze from the militant danger.
Two years after the suicide of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau, jihadist factions continue a battle for control of Nigeria’s north east. In this Q&A, Crisis Group assesses the situation and lays out what authorities should do in response.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be sworn in as Nigeria’s president on 29 May, following an election dogged by legal challenges. With a weaker mandate than any of his predecessors, the new leader should take steps to reunite a fractured country facing numerous other problems.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts explore possible scenarios of the forthcoming Nigeria general elections.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s trustee, Lagos-based lawyer and human rights activist Ayo Obe, and Crisis Group's Senior Adviser Nnamdi Obasi, about Nigeria’s forthcoming elections, held amid deteriorating security and a currency crisis.
The largest, most youthful electorate in Nigerian history will head to the polls soon to decide high-stakes presidential, parliamentary and state-level races. Numerous violent incidents have already marred the campaign. Authorities can take several steps to lessen the dangers before, during and after the vote.
Authorities are keen to return or resettle the millions of people who fled homes in Borno state, the epicentre of fighting with Islamist militants in north-eastern Nigeria. But risks abound. The government should slow down its effort, focusing on protecting the displaced from further harm.
Nigeria’s forthcoming general elections, with four presidential candidates of note, will be hard fought. In this Q&A, Crisis Group outlines what is at stake and how key actors are preparing for the polls.
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