Events on the Korean peninsula are among the most dramatic on the world stage. Amid cycles of rapprochement and disaffection between North and South, relations between Pyongyang and Washington careen back and forth from bellicosity to detente. At stake are not just North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs but also peace and security in North East Asia. China, the North’s most important ally, has cooperated in enforcing strict sanctions in an attempt to temper its partner’s bravado. But ultimately it prefers the status quo to the instability that would follow radical change. Crisis Group works to decrease the risk of war on the peninsula while advocating for creative solutions for all parties to implement as they pursue their long-term goals.
Russia used its Security Council veto to terminate a UN panel monitoring sanctions on North Korea, complicating efforts to contain Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Christopher Green, Richard Gowan and Maya Ungar delve into the consequences.
U.S. and South Korea staged annual military exercise, while North Korea claimed to send nuke missile launchers to inter-Korean border.
U.S. and South Korea held major military exercise. U.S. and South Korea 19 Aug commenced 11-day annual large-scale military exercise, Ulchi Freedom Shield, aimed at strengthening combined response to defend against and deter nuclear-armed North Korea; approximately 19,000 South Korean troops participated alongside fewer U.S. and handful of third-country personnel; activities included variety of field exercises, live-fire drills and computer-simulated war games focused on countering Pyongyang’s missile and cyberattack threats. North Korea’s Foreign Ministry 19 Aug condemned exercise as “provocative war drills of aggression” and “prelude” to “nuclear war”.
Pyongyang claimed deployment of nuke missile launchers. North Korea 5 Aug deployed 250 new “tactical ballistic missile launchers” to front-line units stationed on inter-Korean border; although weapons were unspecified, observers suggested images indicated erector launcher vehicles for Hwasong-11 short-range ballistic missile, which North Korean leader Kim Jong-un previously claimed could be equipped with nuclear warheads. Kim Jong-un 4 Aug presided over ceremony delivering weapons to military, stressing need to enhance country’s nuclear capabilities to counter perceived U.S. threats; 24 Aug oversaw test of new rocket launcher system. In report to parliamentary committee, South Korean intelligence agency 26 Aug cast doubt on Pyongyang’s ability to supply missiles to new launchers.
In other important developments. South Korean military 10 Aug spotted North Korean trash balloons flying south; 20 Aug confirmed suspected North Korean soldier was in “secured custody” after defecting to South Korea by crossing inter-Korean border on eastern front of peninsula.
We are in a situation where North Korea can rely on Russia and China more than has been the case in decades.
Politics is a full-contact sport in South Korea and there is no sign of any sort of balanced politics at the moment.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has announced that he will no longer support the longstanding goal of eventually reunifying the two Koreas. The change of position, coupled with Kim’s flexing of his country’s military muscle, has troubling implications for the Korean peninsula’s stability.
On 31 May, Pyongyang tried – and failed – to send a military reconnaissance satellite into space. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Chris Green explains why it took this action and what can be done to keep regional tensions from rising.
On 9 March, South Koreans voted a conservative, Yoon Suk-yeol, into the presidency to replace the left-leaning Moon Jae-in. Yoon has taken a harder rhetorical line than his predecessor toward Pyongyang. But a dramatic shift in North Korea policy is unlikely.
Pyongyang’s string of missile tests at the turn of 2022 indicates its discontent with how diplomacy has sputtered on the Korean peninsula since the 2019 summit. Fresh overtures may fall short of bringing it back to the table, but they are worth a try.
The latest five-day plenum of North Korea’s ruling party focused on food insecurity, chief among the nation’s challenges. With the pandemic not yet tamed and other uncertainty on the international scene, Pyongyang may continue refraining from major provocations into 2022, but for how long is unclear.
North and South Korea have recently staged displays of military prowess, causing some to worry about an accelerating arms race. But both countries were playing politics. Any uptick in tensions is likely to come after the Beijing Olympics and South Korean elections in March 2022.
On 24 June, Pyongyang abruptly stopped threats it had been making at Seoul for weeks, although the underpinnings of inter-Korean friction remain. Peninsular tensions could stay on simmer or escalate depending on how the parties manage an uncertain time before the U.S. election.
Two years have passed since U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's historic Singapore summit. But nuclear diplomacy remains stuck and the 2018 June Singapore Joint Statement has not been implemented. The coronavirus pandemic and U.S. presidential elections in November might convince both capitals to kick the can down the road until next year, at the earliest. But Pyongyang's nuclear weapons capability continues to advance without restrictions.
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