Since the 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Georgian authorities, who have maintained ties with Moscow, have faced the country’s biggest street protests in a decade and deteriorating relations with Western partners. Georgia officially still seeks to join the EU but has a poor record on the domestic reforms required. Meanwhile, although the situation is overall comparatively stable, occasional incidents continue in and along the lines of separation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Many of these incidents involve Russian troops, which maintain a presence in these two breakaway regions that Moscow recognised as independent in the wake of its war against Georgia in 2008. Crisis Group closely monitors developments in the Georgian conflict zones and provides recommendations for sustaining diplomacy, keeping the existing negotiation format functioning, shaping long-term policies to support reconciliation and increasing stability.
This video gathers testimonies from people living along the South Ossetia-Georgia line of separation, where Russian militarisation of the boundary has left communities divided.
Array of actors filed motions against contentious Foreign Influence law with Constitutional Court, relations between West and ruling party cooled, and electoral campaign kicked off.
Constitutional Court received legal challenges to Foreign Influence law. President Zourabichvili 15 July filed lawsuit in Constitutional Court against Foreign Influence law, which requires NGOs and media outlets that receive foreign funding to register with govt or face fines. 121 civil society and media organisations, over 30 opposition lawmakers, and largest opposition party United National Movement 17, 22 and 29 July respectively submitted similar appeals to Georgia’s top court, emphasising law’s incompatibility with constitution, which mandates constitutional bodies “take all measures […] to ensure the full integration of Georgia” into EU and NATO.
West imposed more punitive measures on ruling party due to Foreign Influence law. Notably, Head of EU Delegation to Georgia, Paweł Herczyński, 9 July announced EU had decided to freeze €30mn of military assistance and halt Georgia’s EU accession process; U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 31 July announced it was pausing over $95mn in assistance “that directly benefits the Government of Georgia”. Meanwhile, U.S. 5 July postponed annual Noble Partner military exercise, and for first time since 2008, declaration at 9-11 July NATO summit omitted traditional clause regarding Georgia’s membership, suggesting possible end to country’s decades-long security and defence cooperation with West.
Electoral campaign kicked off. As Oct parliamentary elections drew closer, fragmented opposition parties began forming coalitions, while Zourabichvili 11 July inaugurated civil society movement, dubbed Vote for Europe, to mobilise pro-EU voters. Georgian Dream’s founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, 16 July launched ruling party’s campaign. Meanwhile, State Security Service 24 July announced investigation into alleged “plot” to assassinate Ivanishvili and overthrow govt involving “former high-ranking officials and former employees of law enforcement agencies in Ukraine”.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Tbilisi-based journalist Joshua Kucera and Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus Olesya Vartanyan about the March protests in Georgia and what they might spell for the political future of the country.
Russia’s war on Ukraine has all but stopped Moscow’s efforts to fence off the line that separates breakaway South Ossetia from Georgia proper. Conflict parties should use this lull to ease the suffering this decade-long process has inflicted on people living on both sides.
Georgia, a former Soviet republic that suffered its own Russian invasion in 2008 and Moscow’s destabilising support for its breakaway regions, is treading carefully on the war in Ukraine, fearing that if it upsets the Kremlin, it may be left to face the consequences alone.
As elections draw near, increased tension at the line of separation with South Ossetia has helped put the future of normalisation with Russia in doubt. But whoever wins at the polls should not abandon dialogue, but rather build on it to frankly discuss these problems.
In this testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, Crisis Group expert Olesya Vartanyan analyses the conflict dynamics in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the breakaway territories from Georgia recognised as independent by Russia, and explains how Washington can promote stability there.
This summer’s protests in Georgia led to changes to the country’s electoral system. But the country’s new Prime Minister, Giorgi Gakharia, is a man protesters wanted ousted from the last government, in which he led the Interior Ministry. In this interview with World Politics Review, Europe & Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker and Analyst for EU Eastern Neighbourhood Olesya Vartanyan consider what Gakharia’s tenure will bring, and how the parliamentary elections next year might play out in this atmosphere.
Informal trade is increasing between Georgia and the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and between Abkhazia and countries outside the region. Trade alone cannot transform the parties’ core political differences. But talks among them on mutually beneficial commerce could open lines of communication long cemented shut.
Renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine is quickly turning into a litmus test of Russia’s intentions in backing Ukrainian separatist rebels, and the real willingness of the West, in particular the United States, to support Kyiv. Fears over Washington’s wavering may also cause positions to harden in the protracted conflicts in Europe’s East, most immediately in Georgia.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.