President Yoweri Museveni’s growing authoritarianism and the country’s weak institutions are multiplying Uganda’s challenges. Conflict risks at the local level are rising due to uncertain political succession, economic stagnation, a youth bulge and an influx of refugees from South Sudan. The state’s repression of political opposition and its increasing reliance on security responses to political problems is fostering discontent in politically and economically marginalised communities. Through field research in Kampala and conflict-affected areas, Crisis Group works to reduce the likelihood of local tensions escalating into violence. We indicate how Ugandan policymakers can embark on a process of democratic transition in order to reduce the risk of discontent turning into political instability, protest and violence.
Fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is intensifying, with Ugandan and Burundian soldiers in pursuit of rebels and Congolese insurgents on the rebound. With help from its allies, Kinshasa should step up diplomacy lest the country become a regional battleground once more.
Govt faced discontent over corruption and parliamentary expenditures, as authorities supressed protests; feud emerged among President Museveni’s family.
Public mistrust over legislature’s spending grew, protest crackdown continued. Parliament’s plans to spend roughly $5.4mn on four regional sessions outside capital Kampala sparked renewed public and political division; some opposition MPs 28-30 Aug boycotted inaugural session in northern city of Gulu, citing misuse of taxpayer funds. After large anti-corruption protests that saw hundreds of arrests in July, President Museveni 12 Aug urged activists to combat corruption without resorting to “riots”, while security forces denied having physically abused detained demonstrators. Repression of protests continued; notably, police in Kampala 5 Aug arrested 14 opposition officials and supporters protesting their colleagues’ detention and deportation from Kenya; 26 Aug arrested 18 students delivering petition against proposed pipeline to Energy Ministry. Meanwhile, collapse of rubbish dump in Kampala 9 Aug killed 35, with 28 missing, sparking internal govt dispute over accountability.
High profile clash highlighted mounting tensions within Museveni family. Dispute emerged between head of army and Museveni’s son Lt-Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, and president’s son-in-law and advisor, Odrek Rwabwogo; both seen as potential successors to Museveni. Muhoozi 16 Aug accused Rwabwogo of corruption, labelling him “biggest thief in Uganda” and setting off days of reciprocal rounds of public accusations and insults. Museveni 17 Aug obliquely referred to dispute, urging parties to avoid “unprincipled conflicts”.
In other important developments. South Sudanese officials alleged Ugandan soldiers crossed into South Sudan 11 Aug, detaining and flogging six locals for suspected illegal entry to Uganda; Kampala did not respond to allegations. Meanwhile, amid renewed refugee influx due to deteriorating security situation in North Kivu province in neighbouring DR Congo, military 16 Aug returned some 100 Congolese security personnel who early Aug fled across border. Court 23 Aug sentenced three Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces members to between five- and ten-years imprisonment for foiled 2021 suicide bomb attack.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Great Lakes expert Nelleke van de Walle about the escalation of violence in the eastern DR Congo, as Uganda and Burundi deploy troops to fight rebels in the area and Rwanda threatens to do the same.
The Islamic State has claimed two suicide bombings in the Ugandan capital Kampala. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Dino Mahtani unpacks what happened and assesses the threat of further such attacks in East Africa.
This week on The Horn, Africa editor at Nation Media Group Daniel Kalinaki joins Alan Boswell for a deep dive into what Uganda’s latest elections revealed about President Museveni’s hold on power and the likelihood of future instability.
Official results indicate that President Yoweri Museveni will extend his 35-year rule in Uganda. But the contested election, marred by fraud claims, illustrated many citizens’ frustration with his administration. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Murithi Mutiga explains why the path ahead will be rocky.
President Tshisekedi’s plans for joint operations with DR Congo’s belligerent eastern neighbours against its rebels risks regional proxy warfare. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to encourage diplomatic efforts in the region and Tshisekedi to shelve his plan for the joint operations.
Three Great Lakes states – Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda – are trading charges of subversion, each accusing another of sponsoring rebels based in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo. Outside powers should help the Congolese president resolve these tensions, lest a lethal multi-sided melee ensue.
Economically and politically, Uganda's government’s actions are leading to growing frustrations and lawlessness.
Growing discontent threatens the dysfunctional and corrupt political system built by President Museveni, who is now manoeuvering to extend his three decades in power by raising a 75-year age limit on presidential candidates. As security, governance and economic performance deteriorates, Uganda needs urgent reforms to avoid greater instability.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.