Tajikistan is tightly controlled by President Emomali Rahmon and a complex system of patronage and political repression are the hallmarks of his rule. The government’s elimination of moderate Islamic opposition risks creating an opening for violent jihadists and the country faces growing instability along its southern border with conflict-plagued Afghanistan. Through field research, analytical reports and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to mitigate Tajikistan’s internal and external threats and inform national and regional stakeholders about the risk of political instability and radicalisation in the face of government policies.
Four Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – have argued over their water resources since the collapse of the Soviet Union. At times these disputes have seemed to threaten war. The forthcoming presidential summit in Astana can help banish that spectre.
UN Secretary General António Guterres expressed optimism about future Tajik-Kyrgyz border deal, as Bishkek deepened ties with Beijing.
UN secretary general expressed hope for Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border deal. UN Sec Gen Guterres 2 July met with Kyrgyz President Japarov in Cholpon Ata city as part of regional tour (see Kyrgyzstan). Guterres praised Bishkek’s border delimitation deal with Uzbekistan in 2023 and expressed confidence in resolution of Tajik-Kyrgyz border issue through peaceful, diplomatic means.
In important international developments. President Rahmon 3-4 July attended two-day summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – Eurasian regional security organisation – in Kazakh capital, Astana, which saw Belarus’ admittance into bloc; members also signed flurry of documents, including declaration lauding emergence of “fairer and multipolar world order”. Following summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping 5-6 July visited capital Dushanbe, during which he announced boost in China-Tajikistan ties to comprehensive strategic partnership.
Преобладающее спокойствие в Горном Бадахшане, на отдаленном востоке Таджикистана, не исключает перспективы столкновения местных влиятельных игроков и властей Душанбе. Китай и Россия сообща должны подтолкнуть президента Рахмона к плавному переходу власти, чтобы смягчить риски локальной вспышки и регионального соперничества власти.
С завершением семилетнего срока в 2020 году, растет неопределенность относительно того, назначит ли преемника или продолжит свое правление давний руководитель Таджикистана, президент Рахмон. Растущие проблемы в стране и за рубежом гарантируют, что оба сценария чреваты риском и должны управляться разумно, чтобы страна не стала еще одним источником региональных беспорядков.
Plagued by violence, corruption and economic hardship, and exposed to a long, insecure border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan is under dangerous stress. President Rahmon’s autocratic undermining of the 1997 peace agreement is fostering Islamic radicalisation. As Tajikistan’s growing fragility impacts a brittle region, the country must become a conflict-prevention priority.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.