Since fighting erupted in Juba in July 2016 and a major rebel faction returned to war, rebel groups have proliferated though conflict is much reduced from its height in 2014. The government’s current strategy can secure Juba but cannot deliver sustainable nationwide peace. Of the millions experiencing hunger due to the conflict’s impact on civilians, the UN declared 100,000 in famine conditions for several months in 2017. Through field-based research and engagement with relevant national, regional and international actors, Crisis Group aims to support humanitarian access and build a new consensus around sustainable peace efforts that address the regionalised nature of the conflict as well as its localised dynamics.
Income from oil exports is critical to keeping South Sudan’s factious elites together. The war in neighbouring Sudan has led earnings to fall precipitously, threatening instability in Juba and highlighting anew the need to bring the Sudanese conflict to a close.
Nairobi talks remained frozen after VP Machar’s party withdrew from initiative, 2018 peace deal signatories held talks about December elections, and border conflict with Uganda simmered.
Nairobi peace talks remained stalled. Talks between govt and several opposition groups not party to 2018 peace agreement, dubbed “Tumaini”, remained on hold after Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) withdrew in July amid concerns initiative undermined 2018 deal. Kenyan mediation team and members of President Kiir’s SPLM held talks late July-early Aug in capital Juba in hopes of persuading Machar to return to negotiating table. Other officials echoed Machar’s concerns, however; notably, Cabinet Affairs Minister Martin Elia Lomuro 8 Aug warned initiative risks dismantling peace deal’s achievements and urged better alignment between agreement and Tumaini. Kiir 28 Aug held talks with Tumaini delegates in Kenya, who reportedly sought to address Machar’s concerns in effort to resume talks. Meanwhile, representatives from govt and rebel group National Salvation Front (NAS) led by Thomas Cirillo 12-14 Aug discussed latter’s possible inclusion in Tumaini initiative, but Cirillo 17 Aug rejected invitation.
Peace deal signatories discussed contentious December elections. Parties to 2018 peace agreement 13 Aug met to discuss elections, currently scheduled for Dec, amid disagreement about whether they should be postponed due to delays in preparation, lack of political consensus, scarce funds and insecurity. At request of peace deal signatories, institutions charged with organising polls 22 Aug submitted their report on feasibility of holding elections in Dec.
Ugandan forces reportedly crossed into South Sudanese territory. On-off border conflict between South Sudan and Uganda, which resurfaced late June, continued amid reports of incursions by Ugandan forces into South Sudanese territory. Notably, Ugandan forces 11 Aug allegedly entered Kajo-Keji County (Central Equatoria State) and flogged six civilians for entering Ugandan territory. Authorities in Magwi County (Eastern Equatoria State) 27 Aug claimed Ugandan forces were encroaching on their land and harassing civilians.
Economic crisis persisted. South Sudan’s main oil pipeline running through Sudan remained in disrepair, exacerbating economic crisis. Malaysian oil company Petronas 9 Aug announced it would exit country after 14 years, in part due to mounting costs incurred by rupture, marking major financial blow.
The situation is horrendous in South Sudan, and it seems to keep getting worse despite the peace deal.
In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, to discuss new political talks in Kenya and whether South Sudan can weather a sudden plunge in oil revenue.
This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Edmund Yakani, a leading South Sudanese civil society activist and executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, to discuss the state of South Sudan’s peace process and the prospects for elections next year.
In South Sudan, still reeling from civil war, consecutive years of record flooding have pushed hundreds of thousands out of their homes, intensifying competition for resources and contributing to deadly conflict. Donors and aid groups should work with South Sudanese partners to better meet the needs of all.
This week on The Horn, guest host Nicolas Delaunay is joined by Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s climate & security expert, to discuss the complex, often dangerous relationship between climate stresses and conflict in the Horn and on the continent more broadly.
Side deals between President Salva Kiir and renegade opposition leaders jeopardise the 2018 agreement that ended the worst fighting of South Sudan’s civil war. East African mediators should press the principal combatants – Kiir and Riek Machar – to restart talks on the issues that divide them.
Originally published in The African Report.
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