Since a July 2013 military coup, Egypt has sought to reassert state authority undermined by the 2011 uprising at the expense of political inclusion, especially of the Muslim Brotherhood. The resulting polarisation has encouraged mounting political violence from the Islamic State (ISIS) and other violent groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula where a low-level insurgency has raged. In the Nile Valley, in 2017, ISIS has targeted the Coptic Christian minority, while al-Qaeda affiliates and other groups tied to the Brotherhood have targeted security forces. Crisis Group is urging the government to be more inclusive and address widespread violations of human and political rights, to better address security and economic challenges.
In this video Riccardo Fabiani discusses how Cairo has turned the crisis somewhat to its advantage, leveraging Western fears that what is happening in Gaza could destabilise Egypt.
Judicial reforms proposed amid economic challenges as Cairo continued to advocate for resolution to crises in Gaza, Red Sea and Sudan.
Advisory body proposed judicial reforms amid economic crisis. National Dialogue Initiative 11 Aug suggested series of recommendations to President Sisi, which included justice system reforms that could reduce maximum pre-trial detention period and list of 600 detainees who could receive presidential pardon; Sisi 21 Aug approved recommendations, which may garner him goodwill amid unpopular economic reforms and cost-of-living inflation. After PM Madbouly late July announced intention to remove all fuel subsidies by Dec 2025, govt continued to implement tough austerity measures including 1 Aug increasing metro ticket price in capital Cairo by 25-30%.
Cairo continued push for ceasefire in Gaza (see Israel/Palestine). FM Abdelatty 5 Aug called on Washington to pressure Israel to stop its “brinkmanship” while Sisi 6, 16 and 23 Aug held calls with U.S. President Biden over intensifying efforts to reach ceasefire. Cairo, Doha, and Washington 9 Aug released joint statement advocating ceasefire, while Cairo 22-25 Aug hosted U.S., Israeli and Hamas negotiators in attempt to secure deal. Tensions with Israel over Philadelphi Corridor and Rafah border crossing, however, persisted; state-affiliated media 5 Aug denied Israeli claims about existence in Philadelphi Corridor of operational tunnels leading into Gaza. Egypt remained opposed to Israel’s permanent presence in corridor as well as lack of Palestinian control of Rafah border.
In other important international developments. Abdelatty 7 Aug met with chief of EU naval mission in Red Sea to discuss insecurity, which continued to limit Suez Canal revenues; Abdelatty praised mission but underlined Gaza conflict as root cause of deterioration. Meanwhile, govt’s attempt to host discussion between Sudanese pro-army delegation and U.S. officials over implementation of Jeddah agreement faltered after Khartoum attempted last minute changes to delegation.
The Egyptian acts are pushed on the one hand by a sense of solidarity with the Palestinian cause but on the other hand as a matter of security.
The tensions between Egypt and Israel on the Gaza border are effectively fuelling tensions between the U.S. and Egypt.
[Egypt] cannot live with the permanent displacement of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza war’s crippling economic effects and risks of regional war.
Things have been very tense [on Gaza's border with Egypt], but there are limits to how far these tensions can go on a strategic level.
If the war goes the way it’s been going, the border between Egypt and Gaza will come under immense pressure. Reality might have a say then.
From the onset of the Gaza war, Cairo has worried about the risks it creates for Egypt, from refugee flight to economic shocks. Foreign partners should keep working for a ceasefire – the best way to prevent spillover – while pushing Egyptian officials toward reform at home.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Riccardo Fabiani, Michael Hanna and Dareen Khalifa about the Gaza war’s economic and political fallout for Egypt.
The Egyptian economy is under increasing strain, with the Gaza war’s effects adding to the pressure. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group identifies ways the EU can support Egypt in coping with its economic woes.
This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about the role of Egypt in Sudan’s war and how it might shape future relations between the two neighbouring countries and Cairo’s regional diplomacy.
Egypt faces an economic crisis that risks fuelling unrest. The International Monetary Fund demands reforms in return for loans, while the authorities seek to broaden their base through a much-criticised national dialogue. Foreign partners should cautiously support this balancing act to enhance the country’s stability.
The conflict in Egypt’s Sinai offers insights into U.S. foreign policy priorities. As part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the “War on Terror”, Michael Wahid Hanna argues Cairo has used the jihadist spectre to scare off critics and keep U.S. military aid flowing.
This week on The Horn, Alan and William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, discuss Ethiopia's plans to start filling the massive dam it is building, including the complex dynamics at play, negotiations, and the parties' various concerns.
With rains swelling the Blue Nile, Ethiopia is just weeks away from beginning to fill the massive dam it is building. Egypt and Sudan demand that it not do so without an agreement. All three countries urgently need to make concessions for a deal.
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