In late 2021, three decades after the end of Nicaragua’s civil war, the government cracked down harshly on opposition parties and staged a rigged election that confirmed President Daniel Ortega’s intention to establish a dynastic authoritarian regime. Thousands have fled the country since 2018, when a mass uprising spurred by an unpopular reform to the social security system was met with state violence, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Through its fieldwork and advocacy, Crisis Group seeks to contribute to a negotiated exit from the crisis and prevent further bloodshed.
This week on Hold your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group experts Tiziano Breda and Ivan Briscoe about politics in El Salvador, Nicaragua and Honduras and why Central Americans are leaving for the United States.
Crackdown on dissent continued, ruling party claimed victory in regional polls, and Managua strengthened ties with China.
Crackdown on civil society and religious organisations persisted. Authorities 5 March closed fifteen NGOs and one university amid ongoing crackdown on civil society. Religious persecution also continued: according to report presented 6 March before Human Rights Council in Geneva, authorities have detained 55 religious figures and exiled 44 since April 2018. Regime 12 March proposed suspending relations with Vatican after Pope Francis 10 March called govt a “dictatorship” led by an “unbalanced” president. Authorities 27 March convicted eleven pastors who work with U.S.-based missionary group to between twelve and fifteen years in prison on money laundering charges.
Ruling party won local polls in autonomous Caribbean regions. Local elections 3 March took place in Nicaragua’s two autonomous regions, which are located along eastern Caribbean Coast and home to number of Indigenous groups. Ahead of poll, Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 23 Feb released report expressing concern about unfair electoral conditions, notably citing govt’s cancellation of Indigenous party YATAMA’s legal status and detention of party leaders, Brooklyn Rivera and Nancy Henriquez. Ruling party 4 March claimed victory in polls, which saw low turnout and were marked by incidents of violence and voter coercion around polling stations.
West imposed more restrictions on Nicaragua. U.S. 14 March imp0sed arms restrictions on Nicaragua, 21 March sanctioned Attorney General Wendy Carolina Morales Urbina for her role in govt’s “unjust persecution of political prisoners and civil society”. Amid growing pressure from West, Nicaragua continued to strengthen ties with China and Russia. Notably, delegation from Chinese People’s Association for Peace and Disarmament 11 March visited Nicaragua to strengthen cooperation.
[Nicaraguan President Ortega] would prefer to revert to a steady, low-level authoritarian government in which there are perhaps none of the more visible forms of abuses b...
This virtual roundtable assesses the risks of turmoil and political violence, the aggravation of the country’s humanitarian predicament resulting in a surge of emigration and its significance for the region’s democratic backslide.
Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo, have arrested more than 30 high-level opponents in recent weeks. In this commentary for Global Americans, Crisis Group's Central America Analyst Tiziano Breda explains what's at stake.
With Nicaraguans heading to the polls in November, the government is already trying to engineer the outcome in its favour. An unfair ballot could spark unrest and a violent crackdown. External actors should push for reforms and dialogue with the opposition while eschewing counterproductive sanctions.
As the coronavirus spreads, and the U.S. presidential election looms, the Trump administration and Mexican government continue to deport migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Some deportees are carrying the virus. Central American states should press their northern neighbours for more stringent health measures.
Political repression and economic hardship are pushing Nicaragua toward a low-intensity, protracted conflict. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2019 - Third Update for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to press for compliance with earlier agreements and a fresh round of negotiations that can help the country out of this deadly standoff.
Watch List Updates complement International Crisis Group’s annual Watch List, most recently published in January 2019. These early-warning publications identify major conflict situations in which prompt action, driven or supported by the European Union and its member states, would generate stronger prospects for peace. The third update to the Watch List 2019 includes entries on Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Sudan and Yemen.
President Daniel Ortega’s government has released almost all political prisoners held since Nicaragua’s April 2018 uprising. It should stay this course, honouring its other commitments to the opposition in national dialogue. International actors should promise consequences if the government drags its feet.
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