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抵抗与否认:津巴布韦停滞不前的改革议程
抵抗与否认:津巴布韦停滞不前的改革议程
Zimbabwe: An Opportunity for Reform?
Zimbabwe: An Opportunity for Reform?
Briefing 82 / Africa

抵抗与否认:津巴布韦停滞不前的改革议程

概况

津巴布韦的过渡和改革呈现出僵局。2008年9月津巴布韦三大主要政党签署的《全面政治协议》还远未完全实施。要在预计将于20个月内举行的选举前应对和解决主要的安全和法律秩序的问题前景渺茫。2011年4月,《全面政治协议》的定期审议机制指出最突出的问题尚未解决,谈判达成的解决办法一再被拖延,且似乎成为一种难以改变的模式。自此之后的这半年来也未有任何重大变化发生。为可持续的政治和经济复苏奠定基础的机会不断被破坏。暴力和镇压成为迫切的问题,但警方似乎不愿或不能有效阻止这些事件发生或者对此进行补救,而要期待联合监督与执行委员会(JOMIC)更主动地参与解决政治暴力问题尚需时日。

地区组织南部非洲发展共同体(SADC),在3月31日发表其“政治、防务与安全合作机构”(Organ Troika on Politics, Defence and Security) 的公报后,表示将采取更为强硬的态度的承诺尚未兑现。争取民主变革运动(MDC)的两大竞争组织已经大力欢迎由南非总统雅各布·祖马领导的南非发展共同体调解小组更积极地参与到津巴布韦的事务中来。但是,在当前权力分配格局中仍占主导地位的总统穆加贝的津巴布韦非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线党(ZANU-PF)对调解小组进行阻挠,尤其是由于它希望保留其对于安全部门的垄断控制,因为它依赖安全部门作为其领导权的最终防线。

《全面政治协议》并没有明确如何最终进行选举。问题总是围绕着选举将于何时举行,在选举之前能完成怎样的改革展开。津巴布韦非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线宣称自由和平等的选举所需的条件已经或很快就能满足并要求在2011年举行选举。南非发展共同体对此进行否认,认为首先需要的是改革。津巴布韦非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线最近在九月份再次呼吁在2012年第一季度进行选举,似乎也同样不现实。大多数分析家一致认为,津巴布韦最早可能可以准备好进行选举也要到2012年年底。然而,宪法撰写的最终定稿以及对选举和媒体改革的实施可能会进一步被拖延,再加上安全和法律秩序等方面的考虑,2013年上半年是更为现实的举行选举的时间。

10月底和11月初政治暴力和镇压的高涨,以及津巴布韦非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线被指责联合警方共同进行政治镇压,已经被一些分析家解释为试图瓦解《全面政治协议》和尽早举行选举的又一次尝试。穆加贝最近表示他不能强行决定一个2012年的选举日期,表明他的党内正逐渐意识到不达成共识就进行选举将是适得其反的。但党内的强大力量,特别是那些推动穆加贝参加连任选举的力量,仍然致力于令投票尽快举行。津巴布韦非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线12月6日至10日在布拉瓦约的会议应该明确它到底将支持和推进什么选举政策。

南非发展共同体,与非盟一起作为《全面政治协议》的保证人,需要确保如果选举最终将在具有足够自由和平等的条件下举行,就要在一些关键问题上取得切实进展。党际谈判基本忽略了在安全与法律和秩序问题上存在的分歧。南非发展共同体需要找到改变这一状况的方法。其策略一直是将《全面政治协议》的改革议程减少到只包含更易管控的一系列优先事项,并加强对改革实施的监控。一个反映《全面政治协议》的尚待解决的问题的选举路线图草案已经制定,但有关政治暴力、安全部门改革、津巴布韦选举委员会(ZEC)构成和《全面政治协议》监控的关键分歧仍未解决。六月份,南非发展共同体批准了“政治、防务与安全合作机构”的建议,将部署一个技术小组与联合监督与执行委员会共同工作。增强南非发展共同体的眼线对其促进协议实施的能力至关重要,但目前有关部署尚未进行。

自《全面政治协议》签署以来,危机组织多次指出津巴布韦在过渡阶段的两大挑战是:建立一个成熟的政治体系,使政党间能够进行合作和负责任的竞争;以及应对可能破坏有意义的改革的安全问题。本简报评估了南非发展共同体在三月份之后的重新定位,以及与不断变化的安全形势有关的政治和体制发展。

约翰内斯堡/布鲁塞尔,2011年11月16日

Commentary / Africa

Zimbabwe: An Opportunity for Reform?

A new presidential administration in Zimbabwe offers an opportunity for much-needed democratic and economic reform after years of stagnation. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group proposes four key areas on which the EU and its member states should focus its support: the security sector, elections, the economy and national reconciliation.

This commentary on the oppurtunity for reform in Zimbabwe is part of our annual early-warning report Watch List 2018.

Amid a rise in authoritarian tendencies across parts of the continent, Robert Mugabe’s resignation and the November 2017 appointment of his former deputy, Emmerson Mnangagwa, as president make Zimbabwe a potential exception, carrying fresh prospects for reform and economic recovery. Mnangagwa and his administration have set a different tone, promising to clean up government, reach across political, ethnic and racial lines, strengthen Zimbabwe’s democracy and reform its moribund economy. Re-engaging with Western partners and financial institutions is an integral component of his strategy. Questions remain, however, as to whether Mnangagwa’s administration represents a genuine change or simply a reconfiguration of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), now dominated by security sector interests and factions aligned to the new president. International actors will have an important role in encouraging the reforms that will determine whether the country can recover economically and steer a more open and democratic course.

African and non-African governments alike agree that Zimbabwe’s continued isolation would be counterproductive. Following the lead of the AU and Southern African Development Community (SADC), actors including Western governments and China – most of which were happy to see the back of Mugabe – stopped short of calling the “military-assisted transition” a coup d’état, thus ensuring they could maintain diplomatic relations with and provide assistance to the government. Most also agree that the new government should be given an opportunity to demonstrate it is serious about its commitments. But while encouragement and incentives are important, Zimbabwe’s partners, including the EU, should calibrate support to maintain pressure on the government to enact both political and economic reforms, particularly given ZANU-PF’s long track record of backtracking on its promises.

So far, Mnangagwa has set an encouraging tone, focusing on the need to resuscitate the economy and open the political system. But doubts remain. Questions surround in particular the government’s willingness to address structural economic issues through fiscal discipline, transparency and accountability. They also surround its commitment to a genuinely inclusive political system; in response, the opposition and civil society – although weak and fragmented – have united in calling for a level electoral playing field, enhanced participation, and strengthened institutional checks and balances.

A calibrated framework for EU engagement in Zimbabwe

Although relations have long been strained, the EU resumed direct development cooperation with Harare in November 2014. Since then, with member states, it has engaged in limited senior-level political dialogue. The EU set out a framework for engagement in the National Indicative Program for Zimbabwe 2014-2020, focusing on three sectors: health, agriculture-based economic development, and governance as well as institution-building.

While this framework remains relevant, Mugabe’s ouster provides the EU an opportunity to adjust its approach and offer Zimbabwe the promise of a deeper relationship should certain conditions be met (a promise which is explicit in the 22 January 2018 Foreign Affairs Council Conclusions on Zimbabwe). This would require determining levels of support based on realistic deliverables and deadlines, based partly on timelines set by the new president and government themselves (such as in Mnangagwa’s December presentation to ZANU-PF’s extraordinary Congress, his State of the Nation address and the government’s commitments to deliverables within the first 100 days in office). Specifically, the EU could link its support to reforms in four key areas:

  • Security sector, including initiatives to professionalise the police forces and provide for civilian supervision, improve parliamentary oversight of the defence sector and repeal legislation inconsistent with the 2013 constitution, such as the Public Order and Security Act (which curtails rights such as freedom of assembly) and the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (which allows the state to severely control the work of the media and limit free speech).
     
  • Elections, including guaranteeing greater independence for the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and credible voter rolls for Zimbabweans at home and abroad. The EU also should follow up on the president’s recent offer to allow EU observers to monitor the 2018 elections.
     
  • Economic sector, including organisation of a broad dialogue on the government’s economic reform strategy to be led by an independent committee, including representatives from the opposition, civil society, the churches and important commercial sectors.
     
  • National reconciliation, notably by bolstering the National Peace and Reconciliation Commission and extending its mandate so as to form a truly independent body able to deal with past government abuses.

In parallel, the EU should step up support for institutions such as the Auditor General, Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission and Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission while continuing to engage civil society organisations, and support their efforts to track government reforms, particularly those related to security, governance, fiscal accountability and anti-corruption.