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CrisisWatch Africa

CrisisWatch is a monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide a regular update on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.

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Trends for Last Month July 2017

Improved Situations


Outlook for This Month August 2017

Conflict Risk Alerts


Resolution Opportunities


Reports & Briefings

In The News

20 Aug 2017
The biggest challenge [for President Buhari] would be to calm nerves and curb divisions, to rally Nigerians around a common vision for the country and bring some urgency towards pursuing that vision. Bloomberg

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
18 Aug 2017
Many politicians don't do their jobs properly so there's continual frustration [in Kenya]. But now at least people know they can have some say in how their resources are managed. Reuters

Murithi Mutiga

Senior Analyst, Horn of Africa
14 Aug 2017
It can be argued that fake news in the lead-up to the [Kenyan] elections was just aimed at boosting political support. Now, when it’s a question of life or death, it’s much more dangerous. Los Angeles Times

Murithi Mutiga

Senior Analyst, Horn of Africa
7 Aug 2017
After independence, the politicians found this system of ethnic politics convenient. In Kenya, unfortunately, they continued to use ethnicity as the main tool on which to run elections. Los Angeles Times

Murithi Mutiga

Senior Analyst, Horn of Africa
5 Aug 2017
[Kenyan] politics now remain really in the grip of a few ethnic, oligarchic families that essentially practice ‘machine’ politics. AP

Murithi Mutiga

Senior Analyst, Horn of Africa
3 Aug 2017
[D]evolution [in Kenya] is both a blessing and a curse. [I]t has been very successful in creating local accountability ... but it has also devolved quite a few problems. AFP

Murithi Mutiga

Senior Analyst, Horn of Africa

Latest Updates

Commentary / Africa

Crisis Group On the Long Road to Kenya's August Elections

For the past twelve months, Crisis Group has closely monitored and assessed developments in the run-up to Kenya's 8 August 2017 election. In this letter to our readers, Africa Program Director Comfort Ero highlights Crisis Group's flagship Kenya publications that have helped inform stakeholders of looming threats and ongoing electoral issues.

Commentary / Africa

Essential Guide to Kenya’s High Stakes Election on 8 August

Kenya’s 8 August elections are rapidly approaching and concerns continue to mount over the prospect of electoral violence. In this Q&A, Senior Kenya Analyst Murithi Mutiga looks at what is at stake and assesses efforts to prevent another violent fallout from the balloting.

Commentary / Africa

A Changing Environment Brings Opportunities and Threats for the African Union

Traditional stakeholders Europe and the U.S. are reassessing their commitments in Africa, generating new geopolitical realities for the African Union. Africa Program Director Comfort Ero argues that the AU’s future relevance and credibility will depend on its ability to generate more unity and leadership.

Commentary / Africa

Violence, Land, and the Upcoming Vote in Kenya’s Laikipia Region

Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst Murithi Mutiga has just returned from a weeklong tour of the troubled central Kenyan county of Laikipia, where violence between indigenous nomadic pastoralists and ranchers is escalating in the run-up to elections scheduled for 8 August.

Watch List 2017 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2017 includes entries on Nigeria, Qatar, Thailand and Venezuela. These early-warning publications identify conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Our People

Comfort Ero

Program Director, Africa

EJ Hogendoorn

Deputy Program Director, Africa

Richard Moncrieff

Project Director, Central Africa

Rinaldo Depagne

Project Director, West Africa

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa

Jean-Hervé Jezequel

Deputy Project Director, West Africa

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria

Elissa Jobson

Adviser, African Union Relations