Tajikistan is tightly controlled by President Emomali Rahmon and a complex system of patronage and political repression are the hallmarks of his rule. The government’s elimination of moderate Islamic opposition risks creating an opening for violent jihadists and the country faces growing instability along its southern border with conflict-plagued Afghanistan. Through field research, analytical reports and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to mitigate Tajikistan’s internal and external threats and inform national and regional stakeholders about the risk of political instability and radicalisation in the face of government policies.
Four Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – have argued over their water resources since the collapse of the Soviet Union. At times these disputes have seemed to threaten war. The forthcoming presidential summit in Astana can help banish that spectre.
UN Secretary General António Guterres expressed optimism about future Tajik-Kyrgyz border deal, as Bishkek deepened ties with Beijing.
UN secretary general expressed hope for Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border deal. UN Sec Gen Guterres 2 July met with Kyrgyz President Japarov in Cholpon Ata city as part of regional tour (see Kyrgyzstan). Guterres praised Bishkek’s border delimitation deal with Uzbekistan in 2023 and expressed confidence in resolution of Tajik-Kyrgyz border issue through peaceful, diplomatic means.
In important international developments. President Rahmon 3-4 July attended two-day summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) – Eurasian regional security organisation – in Kazakh capital, Astana, which saw Belarus’ admittance into bloc; members also signed flurry of documents, including declaration lauding emergence of “fairer and multipolar world order”. Following summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping 5-6 July visited capital Dushanbe, during which he announced boost in China-Tajikistan ties to comprehensive strategic partnership.
The prevailing calm in Gorno-Badakhshan in Tajikistan's remote east does not rule out the prospect of a clash between local powerbrokers and Dushanbe authorities. To mitigate the risks of a local flare-up and regional power rivalry, China and Russia should communicate with each other and nudge President Rahmon toward a smooth transition of power.
With his seven-year term set to end in 2020, uncertainty is growing over whether Tajikistan’s long-time ruler President Rahmon will handpick a successor or continue his reign. Growing troubles at home and abroad ensure both scenarios are fraught with risk and must be managed prudently, lest the country become another source of regional disorder.
塔吉克斯坦如今正处于危险的重负之下——因其受暴力、腐败和经济困难所扰,苦其与阿富汗边境之漫长而不安全。拉赫蒙总统的专制破坏了1997年签署的和平协议,并助长了境内伊斯兰激进主义的发展。随着其国家愈加脆弱、且或波及周边列国,塔吉克斯坦应成为冲突预防中的优先对象。
水资源的分配争端使得拔汗那山谷(Ferghana Valley)地区日趋紧张的形势愈发恶化。为解决这一问题,吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦三国应立刻改变它们将水资源和能源作为政治工具的做法,并在就这一严峻问题寻求综合解决方案之前,三方应将重点放在如何达成一系列更现实的双边协定之上。
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