Tajikistan

Four Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – have argued over their water resources since the collapse of the Soviet Union. At times these disputes have seemed to threaten war. The forthcoming presidential summit in Astana can help banish that spectre.

The prevailing calm in Gorno-Badakhshan in Tajikistan's remote east does not rule out the prospect of a clash between local powerbrokers and Dushanbe authorities. To mitigate the risks of a local flare-up and regional power rivalry, China and Russia should communicate with each other and nudge President Rahmon toward a smooth transition of power.

With his seven-year term set to end in 2020, uncertainty is growing over whether Tajikistan’s long-time ruler President Rahmon will handpick a successor or continue his reign. Growing troubles at home and abroad ensure both scenarios are fraught with risk and must be managed prudently, lest the country become another source of regional disorder.

塔吉克斯坦如今正处于危险的重负之下——因其受暴力、腐败和经济困难所扰，苦其与阿富汗边境之漫长而不安全。拉赫蒙总统的专制破坏了1997年签署的和平协议，并助长了境内伊斯兰激进主义的发展。随着其国家愈加脆弱、且或波及周边列国，塔吉克斯坦应成为冲突预防中的优先对象。

水资源的分配争端使得拔汗那山谷（Ferghana Valley）地区日趋紧张的形势愈发恶化。为解决这一问题，吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦三国应立刻改变它们将水资源和能源作为政治工具的做法，并在就这一严峻问题寻求综合解决方案之前，三方应将重点放在如何达成一系列更现实的双边协定之上。