icon caret Arrow Down Arrow Left Arrow Right Arrow Up Line Camera icon set icon set Ellipsis icon set Facebook Favorite Globe Hamburger List Mail Map Marker Map Microphone Minus PDF Play Print RSS Search Share Trash Crisiswatch Alerts and Trends Box - 1080/761 Copy Twitter Video Camera  copyview Whatsapp Youtube
Can a “Humanitarian Truce” Help End Ethiopia’s Civil War?
Can a “Humanitarian Truce” Help End Ethiopia’s Civil War?
Report 235 / Europe & Central Asia

东乌克兰:危险的冬天

执行摘要及建议

乌克兰的冬天给一场本已动荡的冲突带来了更多的不确定性。愈发引人担忧的是,在乌克兰东南部由分裂分子控制的顿涅斯克和卢甘思科地区很有可能发生人道危机。分裂分子政权只有简单初级的行政架构,有能力的行政人员寥寥无几,民兵缺乏训练,长期战略几乎没有。除非俄罗斯在经济、人道和军事上大力提供援助,否则他们很难捱过这个冬天。与此同时,乌克兰在实施改革以解决多重经济问题上行动缓慢。基辅和分裂分子都受到来自战争说客的压力。爆发更多冲突的短期风险很高。目前急需要做的是停止冲突,隔离双方的军队,在战区和俄乌边境各处大幅度增派国际观察员,以及立即采取措施援助双方的平民。

显然,分裂分子知道自身的弱点,在安全方面,他们的民兵是缺乏配合、领导无方的混乱的杂牌军,在政治方面,由于不能给民众提供基本服务,他们政权的根基可能遭严重动摇。他们也承认,俄罗斯的态度是模棱两可的:莫斯科会为了防止严重的军事或人道主义灾难而出手干预,但并不打算承认分裂主义政府或大规模提供发展或重建的援助。分裂分子们还说,为了控制乌克兰,俄罗斯在下一盘长棋,但他们自身正努力熬过未来的六个月。

冲突可能会以多种形式重新爆发。一旦乌克兰发起进攻,俄罗斯几乎肯定会采取军事反击。2014年8月事态的发展就是先例,此前乌军本来所向披靡,却在顿涅斯克市附近的伊拉瓦易斯科遭到俄军重挫,攻势嘎然而止。从那时起,各方占领的地盘一直保持到现在。9月份达成的停火协议基本上无人遵守。分裂分子领导层内的一个强大集团认为,生存的必要条件是占领更多土地。他们想要重新发动进攻的意图昭然若揭,并相信会由此卷入俄罗斯。分裂分子们把在莫斯科的鼓励和煽动下发生在东南部其它自治省的夺权事件称为“俄罗斯之春”,并希望“俄罗斯之春”再次上演。此外,如果今冬的天气条件切断克里米亚的海上补给线,莫斯科也许会出手开辟一条从俄罗斯边境穿过乌克兰领土的陆地线路。毫无疑问,俄方任意形式的主动出击都会被欧盟、美国和其他支持乌克兰的国家视为严重升级,并引发进一步制裁。

在伊拉瓦易斯科之战后,欧盟和美国的制裁也许真的对俄罗斯起到了威慑作用,使其没有沿黑海沿岸继续深入,而且从当时来看,制裁似乎也使分裂分子不敢突破既有前线大幅挺进。制裁还加重了俄罗斯经济下滑的痛苦。莫斯科本以为欧盟各国在布鲁塞尔达成的共识会很快瓦解,因此对欧盟在制裁问题上的强硬立场大感意外。不过,几乎没有迹象表明美国或欧盟设想过,当最终需要使冲突逐步降级时,到底应该怎么做。俄罗斯也做着类似的走一步看一步的打算。俄方低估了吞并克里米亚和干预东乌克兰事务带来的后果。莫斯科保护东乌分裂主义组织不受乌克兰袭击,但似乎除此之外,不愿有更多举动。

各方需要以交流来取代这种走一步看一步的做法。这将帮助化解紧张关系,也许能为主要交战方进行磋商奠定基础,还能使各方在即将到来的冬天着力于人道主义救援。在交流中,俄罗斯可以明确表示无意承认分裂主义政权,也可以否认在基辅盛传的俄罗斯将在春天发动大规模攻势的说法。同样的,基辅也可以承诺在春天不发动军事进攻。它还可以公开地、明确地向乌克兰东部的人民说明战后在东乌克兰的政治构想,并明确保证,在西方的援助下,基辅将帮助重建该地区。这种各方都参与的方法不但可以帮助乌克兰捱过一个危险的冬天,还能让对未来的希望在春天出现。

本报告主要讨论乌克兰危机中一个不太为人所知的方面——分裂分子领导层的想法、能力、他们同莫斯科的关系以及他们对未来的看法。本报告并不对美国、欧盟和其他成员国对危机的政策进行总体分析。

Podcast / Africa

Can a “Humanitarian Truce” Help End Ethiopia’s Civil War?

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Crisis Group expert William Davison to discuss the Ethiopian federal government's offer of a humanitarian truce in its seventeen-month war against forces from Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. 

After almost seventeen months of devastating civil war in Ethiopia, the federal government on 24 March announced what it called a humanitarian truce. The offer would ostensibly allow aid into Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, which has, in effect, been under a blockade for months and where millions face what the UN describes as a serious lack of food. The government’s unilateral truce declaration comes after its offensive in late 2021 pushed back Tigrayan forces, who had advanced to within striking distance of the capital Addis Ababa – the latest about-face in a war that has seen the balance of force between federal troops and Tigrayan rebels swing back and forth. It also comes alongside other signals that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may have tempered his initial goal of crushing Tigray’s leadership. 

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood, Naz Modirzadeh and William Davison, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Ethiopia, discuss the causes and significance of the government's proposal. They map out the military dynamics on the ground and the evolving calculations of Tigrayan leaders, Prime Minister Abiy, other Ethiopian protagonists in the conflict and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, whose forces were also fighting alongside the federal troops against the Tigrayans. They talk about the role of foreign powers in supporting President Abiy Ahmed and in pushing for peace and break down how regional relations are shaping the conflict. They ask how optimistic we should be that the truce eases Tigray’s humanitarian disaster or even serves as a foundation for peace talks and how such talks might surmount the thorniest obstacles – notably resolving a territorial dispute in Western Tigray – to a political settlement.  

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page.

Contributors

Executive Vice President
atwoodr
Naz Modirzadeh
Board Member and Harvard Professor of International Law and Armed Conflicts
Senior Analyst, Ethiopia
wdavison10