A fragile democratic transition faces the dual challenges of political instability and poorly designed counter-terrorism strategies that sacrifice long-term peace for perceived short-term security goals, fuelling militancy in various parts of the country. Across the border, rival India accuses Pakistan of harbouring terrorists and even sponsoring deadly attacks on Indian soil. There is no resolution in sight to the two countries’ dispute over Kashmir, which continues to claim soldiers’ and civilians’ lives along the Line of Control. Crisis Group monitors Pakistan’s domestic politics and security, with the aim of informing Pakistani leaders and international stakeholders about effective strategies for countering instability within the country and preventing its spillover abroad.
Read our CrisisWatch entries on India-Pakistan (Kashmir) here.
On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Former PM Imran Khan unsuccessfully attempted to mend relations with military as bilateral tensions with Kabul remained high amid persistent militant attacks.
Relations between army and Khan plummeted further. Hoping to resurrect political prospects, Khan 5 Aug said it would be “foolish” not to have “excellent” relations with military. However, Khan’s relations with military subsequently further deteriorated. Military 12 Aug said it detained General (retired) Faiz Hameed, former general director of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, first ISI chief to be arrested, for “multiple violations of Pakistan Army Act post-retirement”. As ISI chief, Hameed was Khan’s close confidante and had reportedly overseen alleged rigging that brought Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to power in 2018. Military 15 Aug arrested three other retired officers saying investigations would continue against all accused for “collusion with vested political interests”. Meanwhile, parliament 7 Aug amended Election Act 2017 to prevent PTI from benefitting from 12 July court ruling that granted PTI seats reserved for minorities and women.
Insurgencies persisted in provinces bordering Afghanistan. Four soldiers and six militants 12 Aug died after clashes near checkpoint in South Waziristan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); four soldiers along with 25 militants 28 Aug killed in KP’s Khyber district. In Balochistan province, series of militant attacks 24-25 Aug across several districts left at least 50 dead including civilians and 14 soldiers, paramilitary personnel and police; separatist Balochistan Liberation Army claimed responsibility. Counter-insurgency operations subsequently reportedly killed dozens of militants; notably, military 30 Aug stated five militants killed in retaliation in southwest Balochistan.
Relations with Kabul remained strained. Foreign ministry 1 Aug said UN sanctions committee endorsed Pakistan’s concerns about TTP and banned its collaboration with Afghan Taliban. To ease tensions, army chief Asim Munir 14 Aug asked Kabul not to “choose TTP over Pakistan”. However, tensions simmered after militants 18 Aug attempted to infiltrate into KP’s Bajaur district, killing three soldiers. Two days later, another Pakistani soldier died in armed clashes with Afghan forces in Balochistan’s Noshki area along disputed border.
As Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban severed, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has also gotten cold feet in their engagement [with the Taliban].
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s South Asia director Samina Ahmed about the fallout from Pakistan's February elections, former Prime Minister Imran Khan's enduring popularity, a wave of violence in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad’s frustration with the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan.
Indian authorities speak confidently of a new era in the region of Jammu and Kashmir, for decades a hotbed of separatism, insurgency and tensions with neighbouring Pakistan. But with New Delhi stalling on promised elections, local frustration continues to fuel unrest.
A crucial vote is drawing near in Pakistan with former Prime Minister Imran Khan behind bars and his party alleging bias in election commission and caretaker government decisions. As the country is deeply polarised, disputes could turn ugly. Authorities can still avoid the worst-case scenarios.
Pakistan has started repatriations that could force millions of Afghans back to their crisis-wracked home country. As Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss explains in this Q&A, the policy could bring further trouble to the region, notwithstanding Islamabad’s efforts to justify itself on security grounds.
As Pakistan faces interlocking crises that threaten the outbreak of violence, political stability is of the utmost importance. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Spring Update, Crisis Group explains what the EU can do to help.
Two large attacks on police installations have rocked Pakistan, compelling the authorities to rethink their approach to countering militancy. Their dilemma is that the insurgents’ main supporters – the new authorities in Afghanistan – are also their long-time allies.
The Pakistani military is getting new leadership amid political turmoil centred around former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who refuses to accept the current government as legitimate. The generals promise not to get involved, but if the dispute turns violent, they may feel compelled to intervene.
A would-be assassin wounded former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan as he led his followers in a protest march calling for snap elections. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Samina Ahmed explains the causes and possible consequences of the country’s latest political tumult.
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