Since 2002, Crisis Group has been working to advance a new, inclusive peacemaking model for Israelis and Palestinians and to reduce the likelihood of deadly conflict among Palestinians and between Israel and its neighbours. But with every escalation, Israeli-Palestinian peace seems more remote than ever.
Israel and its allies fended off almost all the armed drones and missiles fired by Iran on 13 April. This outcome affords both sides a face-saving way out of what could otherwise be a ruinous broader confrontation.
Israel’s destructive war in Gaza killed hundreds more Palestinians amid worsening famine and threat of Rafah invasion, while settler violence surged in West Bank; Israeli strike triggered unprecedented confrontation with Iran.
In Gaza, Israel’s deadly attacks continued amid discovery of mass graves, famine and Rafah offensive. Israel killed almost 2,000 Palestinians in April, bringing death toll to at least 34,535 since Oct. Israel 1 April lifted two-week siege on al-Shifa hospital, which killed hundreds including medical staff; after withdrawal, observers on ground reported mass graves with bodies allegedly displaying signs of extrajudicial executions, torture and rape. Israel 1 April repeatedly targeted World Central Kitchen aid convoy, killing seven aid workers, prompting international outcry; UN data showed Israel has killed more than 180 aid workers since Oct. Israel 7 April pulled out most troops from Khan Younis city but 22 April reportedly re-entered city’s east. Israel conducted repeated airstrikes on Rafah city, as it threatened ground invasion that could kill or again displace many of 1.4m Palestinians seeking refuge there. UNRWA chief 17 April warned “man-made famine is tightening its grip” across Gaza and accused Israel of continued aid obstruction, while World Food Program 24 April remarked “all three famine thresholds – food insecurity, malnutrition, mortality – will be passed in the next six weeks”. Round of ceasefire talks 7 April resumed in Egypt; new momentum late April reportedly improved prospects of deal.
Israel and Iran exchanged direct blows; Israel-Hizbollah hostilities intensified. Airstrike on Iranian consular facility in Syrian capital Damascus, widely attributed to Israel, 1 April killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel. In response, Iran 13 April unleashed barrage of 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel in first ever direct attack (see Iran and Conflict in Focus). Meanwhile, hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah escalated (see Lebanon).
Settlers rampaged West Bank. Israeli forces and settlers killed dozens of Palestinians in April, bringing total killed in West Bank to at least 470 since 7 Oct. Notably, abduction and killing of 14-year-old Israeli 12 April sparked settler rampage in at least seventeen villages, killing four. In largest land seizure since Oslo Accords, Israel late March declared 800 hectares in West Bank “state land”.
The physical reality has changed so dramatically since 1967 that it makes the possibility of a viable, contiguous Palestinian state almost an impossibility.
[The Israeli military] certainly hasn’t delivered on the objectives that Netanyahu set for himself, which was the destruction of Hamas.
The Iranian strike [on Israel] has completely distracted the world’s attention from Gaza to the potential for a regional war.
[People in Israel] are distrustful of a political leadership that didn’t see October 7 coming and… of a military leadership that evidently misjudged the response to the A...
A General Assembly vote on [Palestinian UN membership] is of political rather than legal weight.
The regional states remain quite concerned that the longer the open-ended conflict in Gaza goes on, the greater the possibility … of a regional war.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to talk about the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel and the implications for Gaza.
Since October, Hizbollah has walked a fine line between attacking Israel and avoiding all-out war. While no Lebanese actor can force Hizbollah to stop fighting, the group does not want the blame for a conflict that could devastate crisis-hit Lebanon.
Iran and Israel May Not Be Finished.
An isolated leader who faced widespread criticism a week ago now has the backing of the West and has deflected global attention from Gaza.
Iran and Israel are trading threats and counter-threats following the 1 April strike, attributed to Israel, on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. It is imperative that both sides avoid further escalation – or an all-out Middle East conflagration could result.
The Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip has pushed many of its residents to the edge of death from starvation and disease. Only a prolonged ceasefire accompanied by a massive aid operation can improve the situation enough to avoid a horrific toll.
Despite blaming the prime minister, a large majority of Jewish Israeli citizens support his destructive policies in Gaza and beyond.
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