Since 2002, Crisis Group has been working to advance a new, inclusive peacemaking model for Israelis and Palestinians and to reduce the likelihood of deadly conflict among Palestinians and between Israel and its neighbours. But with every escalation, Israeli-Palestinian peace seems more remote than ever.
Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank are on the rise, with a spike since Israel’s present government took office and another since October 2023. Western countries should use their leverage with Israel – military aid and economic ties – to help curb this growing danger.
Israel continued deadly assault on Gaza and launched major raids in West Bank amid heightened violence; exchanges with Hizbollah intensified.
Israel launched large-scale operation in West Bank. Israel 28 Aug launched largest military operation in West Bank since 2002 in response to rising attacks by Palestinian militant groups, conducting raids and airstrikes in Jenin, Tulkarem and Tubas governorates that reportedly killed at least 22 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier. Meanwhile, hundreds of Israeli settlers 15 Aug rampaged Jit village, burning homes and vehicles and killing one Palestinian. Israeli forces and settler violence killed scores, bringing death toll since 7 Oct to over 650.
Israel launched major “pre-emptive” border attack in south Lebanon. Following killings of Hamas political chief in Iran and Hizbollah commander in Lebanon, Israel 25 Aug launched airstrikes on targets in southern Lebanon killing three militants; Hizbollah same day launched 320 Katyusha rockets at 11 Israeli military sites in retaliation for July killing of commander, saying operation was carried out “as planned” (see Lebanon). Hamas 25 Aug met mediators in Egypt’s capital Cairo and technical level officials met in Qatar 28 Aug; ceasefire talks ended without breakthrough.
Israel continued operations in Gaza, deadly attacks hit Tel Aviv area. Israel continued aerial bombardment and conducted ground incursions in Khan Younis and Deir al-Balah cities, killing over 1,200 Palestinians in Aug, bringing death toll to over 40,690 as of 31 Aug since 7 Oct. UN human rights office 5 Aug condemned escalating “pattern” of striking schools as Israel struck at least 17 schools serving as IDP shelters in recent weeks; notably, Israel 10 Aug struck Al Tabi’een school in Gaza city, reportedly killing at least 90. Meanwhile, Palestinian 4 Aug killed two Israelis in Holon city near Tel Aviv before being killed by Israeli forces. Bomb blast 18 Aug killed man carrying bomb and injured passer-by in Tel Aviv; Hamas and Islamic Jihad next day claimed attack.
In another important development. During visit to Al-Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir 13 Aug said Jews should be allowed to pray there, undermining status quo and looking to provoke further escalation with Arab and Muslim world.
In terms of Hamas’ popularity, yes they are the de facto leaders of Palestinians, whether we like it or not.
Since October 7, the [Israeli] government is more emboldened to carry out attacks in the West Bank, and they are engaged in collective punishment.
It’s very unlikely Israel will allow any fully fledged civil entity to take over [in Gaza.] At best we’re looking at dysfunctional governance run by aid organizations.
Nobody in the Israeli political establishment is willing to say ‘stop the war’.
There is an Israeli narrative in the [Gaza] war, and an international narrative, and they don’t really meet.
The Egyptian acts are pushed on the one hand by a sense of solidarity with the Palestinian cause but on the other hand as a matter of security.
In this X space, Crisis Group's experts Ali Vaez and Stephen Pomper talk with Eran Etzion, Dana Stroul, and Danny Citrinowicz about the risks of all-out war between Iran and Israel and how this outcome can still be prevented.
Genuine pressure on Israel and Hamas to enact a Gaza cease-fire could dial down tensions across the region.
Originally published in Foreign Policy.
The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has brought the Middle East to its moment of greatest peril in years. All concerned must do their utmost to avoid regional war. The most important step, besides mutual restraint, is a Gaza ceasefire.
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