A decade of diplomacy, sanctions and nuclear brinkmanship involving Iran and the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (plus Germany) led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This accord enshrined a core compromise that Crisis Group had advocated since 2003: acceptance of a limited, tightly monitored uranium enrichment program in Iran in return for that country’s reintegration into the global economy. Despite the JCPOA’s successful first years, the U.S. withdrew from the deal in 2018, putting it at risk of collapse while raising the danger of conflict between Tehran, Washington and their respective allies. Through field research and high-level advocacy, Crisis Group focuses on salvaging the JCPOA and preventing regional tensions from boiling over.
The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has brought the Middle East to its moment of greatest peril in years. All concerned must do their utmost to avoid regional war. The most important step, besides mutual restraint, is a Gaza ceasefire.
Regional tensions soared after killing of senior Hamas official in capital Tehran while Gaza ceasefire talks intensified; parliament approved president Pezeshkian’s unity cabinet.
Regional tensions rose after senior Hamas official assassination in Tehran. U.S. significantly stepped up military deployments to defend against potential Iran/axis attack against Israel after late July killing widely attributed to Israel of senior Hamas official in capital Tehran. Against backdrop of intensified Gaza ceasefire talks, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 20 Aug asserted Iran will not take “hasty action” in retaliation for July killing, saying “Time is on our side and the waiting period for this response may be prolonged”; U.S. officials 27 Aug continued to assess that Iran remained “postured and poised […] should they want to do that”. U.S. forces came under fire from Iran-backed groups; notably suspected rocket attack on Ain al-Assad airbase in Iraq 5 Aug injured five U.S. personnel, drone attack on military base in north-eastern Syria 9 Aug injured further eight (see Iraq, Syria). Houthi launched attacks in Red Sea (see Yemen) and cross-border exchange between Hizbollah and Israel intensified (see Lebanon).
U.S., Israel issued further sanctions on Iranian and Iran-backed entities. U.S. Treasury 15 Aug sanctioned “companies, individuals and vessels” for involvement in shipping Iranian goods to Yemen and United Arab Emirates on behalf of Houthi financial official; targeted Hong Kong-based company “for its role in shipping Iranian LPG [Liquefied Petroleum Gas] worth tens of millions of dollars for [Hizbollah]”. Israel 15 Aug sanctioned 18 vessels said to be “transporting oil belonging to designated terrorist organization Quds Force”.
Parliament approved president Pezeshkian’s proposed cabinet. Pezeshkian 11 Aug submitted 19 ministerial candidates. Parliament 21 Aug approved proposed cabinet, including reformists, marking first time in over two decades body accepted all proposed candidates. Notable figures include Abbas Araghchi, veteran of past nuclear negotiations, as foreign minister and Farzaneh Sadeq as minister of roads and transportation, becoming second female cabinet minister since 1979 establishment of Islamic Republic.
U.S. accused Iran of election meddling. U.S. 19 Aug accused Iran of cyberattacks against presidential campaigns of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to “stoke discord”. Iran’s mission to UN 19 Aug called allegations “entirely unfounded”.
If Israel can get away with killing Iranian allies in the middle of Tehran, there is no safe haven for Iranian leadership anywhere.
The perception that Iran can neither protect its homeland nor its key allies could be fatal for the Iranian regime.
The next Iranian government … [is] not at all eager to rely on Russia and China for their economic needs, and they want sanctions relief.
The Islamic Republic has really focused on ideological conformity at the top rather than legitimacy from below.
Iran is more aggressive in the region, more repressive at home, and closer to the verge of nuclear weapons than ever before.
In this X space, Crisis Group's experts Ali Vaez and Stephen Pomper talk with Eran Etzion, Dana Stroul, and Danny Citrinowicz about the risks of all-out war between Iran and Israel and how this outcome can still be prevented.
Genuine pressure on Israel and Hamas to enact a Gaza cease-fire could dial down tensions across the region.
Originally published in Foreign Policy.
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