The Central African Republic has been in turmoil since a violent takeover of power in 2013. The aftermath saw armed groups conclude a multitude of peace agreements even as they continued to fight each other and launch attacks on the civilian population. The latest agreement, sponsored by the African Union and signed in February 2019 by the government and fourteen armed groups, raised hopes of peace. The violence has not stopped, however, and political tensions are again on the rise. Through on-the-ground reporting and advocacy, Crisis Group provides concrete advice on how to navigate both the critical electoral period in late 2020 and the long term, focusing on how to persuade armed groups to lay down their weapons.
Rwanda has become a major player in the Central African Republic, helping the government fight insurgents, supporting state reforms and investing in numerous businesses. This engagement has rewards but also comes with risks. Bangui and Kigali should act now to minimise the latter.
Clashes between army and rebels continued as more militias disarmed; tensions around Oct local polls remained high and govt discussed budgetary aid with France.
Military and rebels continued to fight in northern regions. Clashes between Russian paramilitary-supported army and rebels persisted; fighters from Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R) rebel group 2 July attacked army position in Ngoutéré village (Ouham-Pendé prefecture) and ambushed military convoy bringing reinforcements, in total killing three soldiers and three civilians. Military same day attacked position of Unity for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) rebels in Ouadda town (Haute-Kotto prefecture), reportedly killing at least seven UPC fighters. 3R fighters 8 July ambushed convoy of Chinese mining companies near Baboua town (Nana-Manbéré prefecture), taking two Chinese nationals hostage. Army and Russian paramilitaries 23 July killed self-proclaimed anti-Balaka general and deputy in Bouca town (Ouham-Fafa prefecture); photos that circulated of the two decapitated bodies caused widespread indignation. Meanwhile, more militias continued to follow example of ethnic Azandé self-defence group in south east and voluntarily disarmed to integrate into army. Near Bossangoa town (Ouham prefecture), self-proclaimed anti-Balaka General Jabra 9 July disarmed with some 250 fighters, allegedly members of Coalition of Patriots for Change. But govt continued to lack financial resources to support further inclusion into army, which could lead to discontent.
Political tensions continued ahead of Oct local elections. President Touadéra 2 July promulgated new electoral code but opposition denounced provisions including definition of “indigenous Central Africans” and requirement to update electoral lists one year before each election. Head of opposition party Movement for Liberation of Central African People 5 July said composition of electoral commission favours Touadéra. While others suggested election postponement, main opposition platform Republican Bloc for the Defence of the Constitution continued to call for boycott.
France looked to resume budget support in sign of normalisation. French delegation 11 July met PM Moloua in capital Bangui to discuss new terms of budgetary aid, three years after suspending direct support amid anti-French propaganda fuelled by Russia.
In another important development. UN Security Council 30 July lifted arms embargo imposed in 2013 at start of civil war.
In March 2013, Seleka rebels triggered a civil war in the Central African Republic. A decade later, strong domestic and international tensions raise concerns the country could face another violent power transfer. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Enrica Picco analyses the state of play.
Disbanded in 2013, today the Central African army is present throughout the country. But structural problems could weaken it once again. To avoid a downward spiral, Bangui and its international partners should apply the principles laid out in the 2017 National Defence Plan.
Russia has become the Central African Republic’s preferred ally in its battle with insurgents. But the government’s use of Russian mercenaries as it goes on the offensive is causing domestic divisions and alienating other external partners. Concerns about rights abuses and misinformation campaigns are mounting.
The risk of an entrenched political and security crisis remains high in the Central African Republic following December’s contested elections. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2021 for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the EU and France to press the government and opposition to halt heated rhetoric and nudge the many parties toward talks.
The Central African Republic is beset with fresh violence days before voting slated for 27 December. If the election is to go forward, and the country to avoid further turmoil, neighbouring heads of state will need to help rival politicians strike a deal.
In the Central African Republic, the smooth conduct of the December 2020 elections will be essential for the country's stability. The government and opposition should ease tensions, international partners should support credible elections and regional actors should encourage armed groups to abstain from violence during the electoral period.
A February 2019 agreement is the latest in a string of attempts to bring peace to the Central African Republic. Will it hold? Crisis Group expert Hans de Marie Heungoup goes to the country to find out, along with photographer Julie David de Lossy.
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