Mexico’s state institutions have been bedevilled for decades by widespread corruption and powerful transnational criminal organisations. Crime and the “war on drugs” have destabilised the country and fuelled violence; meanwhile, thousands of refugees and migrants flee through Mexico from similar volatility in Central America. Crisis Group focuses on addressing criminal violence, institutional corruption, trafficking and migration. Our aim is to help solve challenges to security posed by global criminal networks, local armed groups and the elusiveness of state rule.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Pauline Bax and Falko Ernst about recent elections in India, South Africa and Mexico and what they mean for the countries’ policies at home and abroad.
Claudia Sheinbaum prepared to assume presidency in October as authorities pressed ahead with judicial reform, criminal violence persisted, and relations with U.S. remained strained.
Sheinbaum prepared to assume office as Mexico pushed ahead with judicial reform. Federal Electoral Tribunal 14 Aug confirmed that Claudia Sheinbaum had received 59.7% of vote share in 2 June presidential election, validating her landslide victory and resolving challenges presented by opposition. Meanwhile, legislative commission for constitutional reform 26 Aug pre-approved judicial reform, likely to be passed in Sept when newly-elected Congress takes office; if approved, judges (including in Supreme Court) will be chosen by popular vote. Outgoing President López Obrador 27 Aug “paused” govt’s relationship with U.S. and Canadian embassies after both ambassadors 22 Aug expressed concern about impact of reform on rule of law and economic ties.
Criminal violence persisted, including in Guanajuato and Sinaloa states. Authorities 1 Aug found four men shot dead near Cancún city, Quintana Roo state, allegedly for providing protection to human smugglers, reflecting increased violence related to migration along Caribbean coast. Journalist Alejandro Martinez was shot dead 4 Aug in Celaya city, Guanajuato state; Guanajuato has highest number of homicides of any state in Mexico, with 18 police officers killed in Celaya in 2024, largely due to turf wars between rival gangs. Officials linked ten murders 16, 17 Aug in Sinaloa state to Sinaloa cartel infighting following late July arrest of group’s leader, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, in U.S. state of Texas (see below).
Drug lord arrest continued to spark controversy. Writing from U.S. prison, El Mayo 10 Aug claimed Guzmán López, son of former Sinaloa Cartel leader “El Chapo”, lured him into meeting with Sinaloa state officials before López kidnapped him and brought him to Texas. Mexican officials reiterated calls to U.S. to provide more information about arrest, while López Obrador 6 Aug claimed López organised arrest in pre-arranged deal with U.S. for leniency in his own criminal proceedings. Federal prosecutors 21 Aug announced charges against López for kidnapping, issuing warrant for his arrest despite his custody in U.S., 29 Aug announced investigation into possible participation of López’s brother, alias “El Ratón”, in kidnapping.
Criminal violence [in Mexico] has become much more difficult to resolve today than six years ago. ... You can't expect a quick fix to the situation, it's too deeply ingra...
En este evento en línea, Falko Ernst, analista senior de México para International Crisis Group, habla sobre los retos a los que se enfrentará la nueva presidenta de México con las expertas Gabriela Warkentin y Lisa Sánchez.
Over the past seven decades, more than 100,000 Mexicans have gone missing and never been heard from again. Crisis Group expert Angélica Ospina reports on the intrepid searchers who hold government officials accountable and spearhead their own investigations to find their loved ones.
Mexican voters go to the polls on 2 June to elect a new president. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Falko Ernst explains who is likely to win, the security challenges she will face, and what the result might mean for U.S.-Mexican ties.
Mexico’s outgoing president has deployed more soldiers than ever to fight crime. But levels of violence remain high. His successor should set limits to the military’s role in public safety while working to sever state officials’ ties to criminals and allow better civilian law enforcement.
Social media is becoming a major source of information about violent crime in Mexico, with many hotspots too dangerous for journalists. But much of what appears is inaccurate or misleading, posted by criminal groups themselves. Platforms should adapt their policies to minimise the risks.
More and more women are joining the criminal outfits battling for turf in Mexico, heightening the dangers these groups pose. To arrest this trend, and to help offenders leave these groups, authorities should cooperate with civil society to provide alternative pathways to earning a living.
Organised crime in Mexico has gone local, as cartels break up into sub-groups battling over smaller patches of turf. At the same time, the federal government has wrested policing away from town halls. A reset is needed to re-empower municipal officials to protect the public.
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