In December 2023, President Félix Tshisekedi won a second term, while his Union Sacrée coalition swept up the most seats in parliament. With all candidates allowed to stand, the presidential election avoided some of the controversies of 2018. But despite Tshisekedi’s wide margin of victory, the polls were marked by chaos and reports of rigging. The political landscape remains deeply divided, and in the east, both Ituri and North Kivu provinces are rocked by instability. In the former, the Allied Democratic Forces continues its murderous campaign against civilians, attacking targets in Uganda, too, despite a Ugandan military campaign in Ituri since late 2021. In North Kivu, the 23 March Movement, widely seen as backed by Rwanda, continues to fight the Congolese army, which is backed by informal auxiliaries as well as allies from the Southern African Development Community. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have fled their homes as fighting spreads. Crisis Group aims to provide detailed recommendations on how to calm national tensions and de-escalate the situation in the east.
Dans cet épisode d’Afrique 360°, Enrica Picco et Rinaldo Depagne reçoivent Richard Moncrieff, directeur du projet des Grands Lacs, et Onesphore Sematumba, analyste pour la République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) et le Burundi à International Crisis Group, pour parler du conflit meurtrier à l’est de la RDC et de ses conséquences humanitaires dévastatrices.
Amid ongoing foreign mediation efforts, ceasefire in North Kivu province suffered violations as M23 rebels gained further territory; court handed death sentence to dozens of M23-linked figures.
Army-M23 clashes resumed despite govt-Rwanda ceasefire. While M23 rebels claimed compliance with Kinshasa-Kigali ceasefire that came into effect 4 Aug, group continued advance in North Kivu. Rebels 3-7 Aug captured Ishasha, Katwiguru, Kisharo, Nyamilima and Nyakakoma towns with minimal resistance, taking control of southern and eastern shores of Lake Edouard and areas along Ugandan border; 20 Aug captured Kikuvo settlement in Lubero territory. Govt also reported 15 Aug clashes between M23 and pro-govt Wazalendo militias killed 16 villagers in Rutshuru territory. Fighting between army and rebels resumed 25 Aug with clashes in Kikubo village, Lubero, as both blamed the other for violating ceasefire. Meanwhile, Angolan-led mediation continued amid tensions (see Rwanda); Congolese FM Wagner 20-21 Aug met Rwandan counterpart Nduhungirehe in Angolan capital Luanda, with further meeting scheduled for Sept. Kinshasa 29 Aug announced it filed case against Kigali at East African Court of Justice, accusing Rwanda of violating its sovereignty and of crimes against civilians.
Court sentenced tens of M23 affiliates to death. Military court 8 Aug sentenced in absentia Corneille Nangaa, head of pro-M23 politico-military group Congo River Alliance (AFC), to death for “high treason”, alongside 25 others including M23 head Bertrand Bisimwa; EU reiterated opposition to capital punishment while Nangaa dismissed verdict. Meanwhile, President Tshisekedi 6 Aug accused predecessor Kabila of supporting AFC and boycotting elections to prepare insurgency, claims Kabila’s allies 8 Aug rejected.
Other armed groups remained active, particularly in Ituri province. In Ituri, Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militants 14-15 Aug launched assaults in Mambasa territory, killing at least 15 civilians. Meanwhile, army 27 Aug announced it had freed some 40 ADF hostages after operations in Mambasa and North Kivu’s Beni territory.
In other domestic developments. Following intense political negotiations, former PM Sama 12 Aug sworn in as senate speaker. Meanwhile, Tshisekedi’s party faced internal strife as senior party members 11 Aug ousted Sec Gen Augustin Kabuya, who refused to leave.
The main resource driving conflict [in the DRC] isn’t coltan. It is the land. It’s material ownership, of course, but also who has a legitimate right to be here.
Rwanda’s primary interest [in the war in eastern DRC] is to continue to have its say in this geopolitical battlefield.
If the regional escalation [in the DRC] continues, we could find ourselves in a scenario like during the other Congo wars … More bombing means more displacement.
The credibility of the elections [in the DRC] has been severely damaged and the opposition may contest not only the outcome but the entire process.
The Congolese state is still riven with corruption and [president Felix Tshisekedi] hasn’t done anything visible or immediately obvious to tackle it.
If we can't negotiate a humanitarian corridor for the city [of Goma in eastern DR Congo], it will be a catastrophe.
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