President Alpha Condé’s unwillingness to give up power set the stage for a military takeover on 5 September. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Vincent Foucher and Rinaldo Depagne show how this latest coup d’état is part of a worrying trend in West Africa.
Debates over transition to civilian rule continued after draft constitution unveiled; civil society leaders remained missing.
Draft sparked concern over President Gen. Doumbouya’s potential candidacy in future polls. After late July long-awaited presentation, govt 11-12 Aug publicly released new draft constitution to be submitted to referendum before end 2024. Civil society and opposition including coalition National Alliance for Alternation and Democracy (ANAD) questioned certain proposed measures. While draft includes limiting presidential terms to two, creating new bicameral legislature and allowing independent candidacies for first time, it does not bar transition’s head Doumbouya from running for president in future (unlike transitional charter), potentially paving way for him to stay in office. Meanwhile, new age limit provision disqualifies Doumbouya’s opponent, former President Condé, who he deposed in 2021 coup. Transitional official 8 Aug remained vague on prospect of Doumbouya’s candidacy.
Opposition called for shutdown, two civil society leaders still missing. Main opposition collective Forces Vives de Guinée (FVG) 6 Aug called for 12 Aug general strike in capital Conakry to protest against military authorities and for return to civilian rule by 31 Dec, also denouncing continued mystery surrounding July disappearance of civil society leaders Foniké Menguè and Mamadou Billo. Strike, however, only marginally observed, amid heavy police presence and govt ban on demonstrations in place since 2022. Meanwhile, govt made no progress in reconciliation with exiled political leaders including former PM Diallo.
In another important development. Lawyers for former President Camara 1 Aug said they would appeal his previous day conviction of 20 years imprisonment for crimes against humanity; case related to 2009 massacre of some 150 protesters in capital Conakry.
Guinea approaches the second free presidential election in its history under difficult circumstances. Unless the government convenes a serious dialogue with the opposition, it risks electoral violence and exacerbating ethnic divisions.
Vincent Foucher, Crisis Group’s West Africa Senior Analyst, draws attention to the complex and problematic electoral process in Guinea, now faced with the additional threat of the Ebola epidemic, causing tensions between the government and the opposition party in agreeing a date for upcoming elections.
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