Venezuela is in the midst of a tense political standoff and socio-economic meltdown, with hyperinflation, violent crime, political repression and food shortages pushing nearly six million citizens to flee the country. Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro has grabbed power for the executive and dismantled democratic checks and balances, triggering moves backed by the U.S. and allies to unseat him and install an interim president. A negotiated restoration of legitimate and representative state institutions as well as urgent economic reform are vital if the country is to resolve the political crisis peacefully and reduce mass emigration. Crisis Group aims to engage national, Latin American and international players to build momentum for talks, strengthen human rights protections and help restore the rule of law.
Venezuelan election authorities proclaimed incumbent Nicolás Maduro victor in the 28 July presidential poll despite evidence brandished by the opposition showing its candidate won by a landslide. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson explains what the ensuing outcry means for Venezuela’s protracted crisis.
Govt-controlled Supreme Court ratified President Maduro’s victory claim in July election, triggering further outcry from foreign govts as crackdown on opposition supporters deepened.
Supreme Court validated Maduro’s re-election. Govt-controlled Supreme Court 22 Aug ratified President Maduro’s victory claim in July poll, which pitted him against opposition candidate, Edmundo González, who also claimed victory. Court said ruling was “supported by the tally reports issue by each of the vote machines”, but did not share any tallies to substantiate claims; electoral authorities, meanwhile, had not provided breakdown of results by polling station by end of Aug despite both domestic and international calls to do so.
International outcry over election continued. Foreign govts continued to express concern about poll, while UN Panel of Electoral Experts 9 Aug said lack of tabulated results had “no precedent in contemporary democratic elections”. Supreme Court ruling failed to convince most capitals that election results were credible. Notably, U.S. and ten Latin American states 23 Aug warned ruling “lacks all credibility, given the overwhelming evidence that González received the most votes”, while Organization of American States same day said electoral authorities provided numbers that “showed mathematical impossibilities”. Brazil and Colombia sought negotiated solution to crisis, with Brazil even suggesting new elections, but there were no indications either Maduro or González are willing to contemplate new poll.
Govt repression persisted. Prosecutor’s office 30 Aug threatened González with arrest warrant if he failed to appear for questioning about opposition’s publication of electoral results, which it claimed proved Maduro’s defeat; despite warning, González same day missed third and final summons. Meanwhile, domestic indignation at contested election continued. Maduro and other key govt figures 12 Aug dismissed opposition protests as conspiracy by “fascist oligarchy” backed by global right-wing forces. Crackdown on protests as of 31 Aug had resulted in 27 deaths and over 2,400 detentions, including some leading opposition figures snatched off the streets, in what Inter-American Human Rights Commission 28 Aug called a campaign of “state terrorism”; journalists, human rights activists and others continued to face repression. Govt 15 Aug approved anti-NGO law, which critics fear could force many organisations to shutter.
The [Venezuelan] opposition has a massive opportunity [in the upcoming elections] to make it clear Maduro isn’t wanted.
El Gobierno de Maduro [en Venezuela] tiene un interés en dar algunas concesiones desde el punto de vista político y electoral.
[Venezuelan President Maduro] can use repression and fraud to stay in power. But I think he would far rather win a relatively clean election.
Venezuelans will cast ballots on 28 July. Polls indicate that a credible election would see the opposition prevail in the economically stricken South American country. Crisis Group spoke with chavistas to gauge how they respond to the possibility of losing power.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss Venezuela’s presidential elections and its government’s claim to an oil rich region in neighbouring Guyana.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is tilting the July presidential election in his favour, in violation of the 2023 Barbados accord. While Maduro should face consequences, the U.S. should take a calibrated approach to the reimposition of sanctions.
This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
Venezuela’s government and opposition have reached an agreement laying the groundwork for a competitive presidential election in 2024. It could be a breakthrough in efforts to resolve the country’s political and socio-economic crisis. The accord is untested, however, and obstacles may lie ahead.
With key polls approaching, negotiations to resolve Venezuela’s political crisis are stuck. To avoid prolonging the country’s malaise, the government, the opposition and foreign powers should converge behind a plan involving sanctions relief and matching steps by Caracas toward fairer votes and better-functioning state institutions.
Venezuela’s international isolation is easing, though its political crisis remains unresolved. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group explains what the EU and its member states can do to pave the way for progress in negotiations between government and opposition.
Crisis Group experts talk in this Twitter Space about what can be done to better protect Venezuelan migrants fleeing to Colombia from exploitation by criminal armed groups. The discussion was hosted by Bram Ebus, consultant for Latin America, Mariano de Alba, our senior advocacy advisor for Latin America and Glaeldys González, Giustra fellow for Latin America.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.