The project of reunifying Cyprus, an island divided since 1974, long in stasis, has become dramatically more difficult in recent years. Amid broader regional tensions and increasing militarisation of the eastern Mediterranean, relations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots have soure, and prospects for a comprehensive settlement have dimmed. Through its field research, analytical reports and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to identify ways to mitigate the damage of a hardening divide, inform policymakers on both sides of the island and regional actors about shared concerns, recommend ways to stop frictions from heightening further, and create mutual benefits.
UN diplomacy aimed at reunifying Cyprus has been drifting since talks broke down in 2017. The Secretary-General should appoint an envoy to draft a roadmap with sufficient incentives to bring both Greek and Turkish Cypriots back to the table.
Amid controversy over invitation to UN-mediated talks, Republic of Cyprus (RoC) faced criticism for alleged role in Gaza war and “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”) party leaders clashed.
Confusion over invitation to UN-mediated talks sparked controversy. RoC President Christodoulides 3 Aug said he had accepted UN invitation to tripartite meeting on 13 Aug with “TRNC” leader Ersin Tatar. Tatar next day denied invitation, saying he “would not have accepted it even if it was sent”. RoC 5 Aug clarified govt had only been “sounded out” for possible meeting date.
RoC accused of involvement in Gaza war. In response to RoC opposition Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL)’s criticism of U.S. warship arriving in Limassol port, RoC 9 Aug said “Cyprus is not involved in military operations or any conflict”. Tatar 12 Aug accused RoC of becoming “military stopover”, being complicit in crimes against humanity in Gaza, making “Cyprus into a target”.
“TRNC” party leaders clashed over approach to Cyprus problem. “TRNC” opposition party leader Tufan Erhürman 8 Aug criticised “Tatar’s avoidance of diplomacy and dialogue”. Tatar next day said, “diplomacy has not stopped” and accused Erhürman of adopting positions close to RoC’s.
In an important international development. Turkish FM Hakan Fidan 31 Aug attended informal EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, first invitation to Turkish FM in five years, signalling positive turn in Türkiye-EU relations. Among other issues, long-stalled visa liberalisation and Customs Union upgrade processes were discussed; divergence persisted, however, over EU’s linkage of Cyprus issue to Türkiye-EU relations. Notably, Fidan stated “While we are committed to advancing our relations with the EU, it is not constructive to tie every aspect of our dialogue to the Cyprus issue”.
Greek and Turkish Cypriots have moved farther apart since a failed summit in 2017, hampering cooperation in several important matters and increasing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean. Hopes for reunifying Cyprus are faint at present, but the parties can still work toward more modest goals.
In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
Greece and Turkey have stepped back from the brink of military confrontation over gas exploration in disputed waters in the Mediterranean Sea. But trouble still looms. European leaders should welcome signs of conciliation from Athens and Ankara and nudge them toward talks.
To avoid another failed effort at federal reunification in the new round of Cyprus negotiations, all sides should break old taboos and discuss all possible options, including independence for Turkish Cypriots within the European Union.
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