Report 199 / Africa 18 February 2013 几内亚：选举困境的出路 Share Facebook Twitter Email Linkedin Whatsapp Save Print Download PDF Full Report (fr) Also available in Français 简体中文 Français English 执行摘要 两年前，几内亚举行了后殖民时代第一次真正的带有竞争性质的选举，阿尔法·孔戴当选为总统。两年后的今天，几内亚却仍然没有国民议会。即将举行的议会选举看起来很复杂：各民族之间的关系仍然高度紧张，2010年的选举进一步激化了这种紧张关系；另一方面，选举制度也极具争议性。2012年9月，几内亚成立了新的全国独立选举委员会 (Independent National Electoral Commission, 简称INEC)，迈出了选举进程的重要一步，但是12月的选民登记册事件又再次使该进程停滞。孔戴总统必须与反对党展开真正的对话，而INEC也必须就选民登记册问题达成两方（执政党与反对党，译者注）同意的解决办法。在国际社会的支持下，几内亚政府和反对党必须巩固选举制度。要成立一个反映了几内亚的多样性的议会，给予反对党真正的话语权，恢复政治制衡，防止由民选总统取代非法的军事领袖所带来的希望走向幻灭，关键一点是要举行和平可信的议会选举。 孔戴总统上台一年多后，在政治对话包容性框架(Cadre de Dialogue Politique Inclusif, CDPI)下，政府和反对党之间就议会选举开始进行直接对话。两个月后，对话结束，取得的成果有限。2012年3月至2013年2月这段时间里，双方之间再未进行任何直接对话，取而代之的是一系列的调停、促进、协商和公告。尽管一些问题得到了解决、一些问题被搁置不谈，反对党仍在两个关键性问题上持坚决反对的立场：INEC和选民登记册问题。2012年8月27日反对党举行的抗议遭到政府禁止，导致首都科纳克里发生大范围的骚乱，此后不久，政府承诺重组INEC，而具有争议性的该委员会主席则提出不再连任。他的继任者巴卡里·福法纳在12月递交了一个时间表，把选举时间定在2013年5月12日。这是否是选举进程向前推进的一种信号呢？这种特殊形式的对话，再加上指责、政治运作和愤怒，最终是否会带来进展呢？ 虽然事态有了一定进展，但是两极分化仍然严重。INEC新成员的任命导致了新的摩擦，新主席很快就遭致了严厉抨击。要解决选民登记册这一关键问题的机构却正是这个争论不休的委员会。12月10日，选民登记册问题所引发的紧张局势达到了一触即发的地步，福法纳拒绝发布一份由法语国家国际组织（Organisation internationale de la francophonie, OIF）撰写的关于选民登记册的报告，反对党指责福法纳此举违反了INEC的规定并考虑要求福法纳辞职。第二天，福法纳宣布选举将在2013年5月举行，这一举动进一步恶化了局势：反对党不同意选举举行的日期，声称该决定没有征询INEC全体会议的意见。 反对党还抗议说修改选民登记册的过程存在技术上的缺陷以及缺乏透明度，而为几内亚海外侨民参加投票进行的准备工作也不足。1月29日，反对党联合一些“中间派”政党召集新的示威活动，当局要求与反对党直接对话，想以此为策略让其取消示威活动，遭到了反对党的拒绝。2月11日，INEC举行新的会议讨论选民登记册问题，支持孔戴总统的大多数与会者投票同意对选民登记册进行有争议性的修改，而来自反对党的委员们则纷纷离场，这些委员可能会决定从此退出INEC。 总之，情况仍令人担忧。政府和反对党在根本性问题上持有不同意见，在这种情况下举行选举是很危险的。政府对反对党持蔑视的态度，足足花了快一年的时间才与其开展对话。反对党坚持认为孔戴总统是通过欺诈获选上台的，总统会倾向于不举行选举（或者说至少不希望进行透明的、双方同意的选举）。反对党指责现任政权有民族偏袒倾向。公民社会曾在20世纪末扮演了重要角色，现在却在政治和民族方面都分裂为不同派系。在民族纷争的背景下举行有争议的选举，无论从地方还是国家层面都会带来许多危险。 由选举引发的动荡可能会演变为重大的暴力事件。对安全部门进行的改革进展有限，安全部队和民众之间的关系仍然高度紧张，这些安全部队已经习惯了享有免罚特权，同时也受到了民族纷争的影响，警察和军队的暴行更是恶化了这种紧张局势。武装部队新近开始接受文职当局的领导，部队中的一些人对此还没有完全接受，而选举所引发的骚乱能给他们提供机会。 孔戴政权不能仅仅只谈论它实行的良治和在发展方面的雄心壮志：它还必须解决政治上的紧张局势。此外，举行一次可信的选举与选举会在五月份举行，这两者相比前者更为重要——尽管选举应该尽快举行，且必须在2013年12月以前举行，因为已经丧失了许多宝贵的时间。要想尽快并在2013年12月以前举行选举，开展对话是关键。通向选举的道路是崎岖的，但是将摩擦维持在最低程度，保持政党之间的严肃对话，重建对选举机构的信任，这几点至关重要。同时也有必要加强政治体系——司法机关，领土管理部门，安全部队，INEC和政党——的能力，公民社会也有必要通过恰当的、可信的方法来处理冲突，在接下来漫长的选举过程中冲突的出现在所难免。 达喀尔⁄布鲁塞尔，2013年2月18日 Download pdf to continue reading the full report (French) Executive Summary Two years after President Alpha Condé’s victory in the first really competitive election in the history of postcolonial Guinea, the country still does not have a national assembly. Forthcoming legislative elections look set to be complicated: ethnic tensions, compounded by the 2010 polls, remain high and the electoral system is deeply controversial. The establishment of a new Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in September 2012 was an important step, but progress stalled again in December on the issue of the voter register. President Condé must engage in a genuine dialogue with the opposition and the INEC must reach a consensual solution on the register. With international support, the government and opposition must consolidate the electoral system. Peaceful and credible legislative elections are essential to establish a parliament that reflects the country’s diversity, give the opposition a real voice, restore checks and balances, and prevent the hope raised by the replacement of illegitimate military leaders with an elected civilian president turning into disillusionment. Direct dialogue between the government and opposition on the legislative elections started more than a year after Alpha Condé came to power, with the Inclusive Framework for Political Dialogue (Cadre de dialogue politique inclusif, CDPI). It ended two months later with limited results. Between March 2012 and February 2013, there were no further direct talks, but instead a series of interventions, facilitations, consultations and announcements. Some questions have been settled and others brushed aside, but the opposition still strongly disagrees on two key issues: the INEC and the voter register. Soon after a banned opposition protest on 27 August 2012, which led to widespread disorder in the capital Conakry, the government pledged to reconstitute the INEC, and the commission’s controversial president asked that his mandate not be renewed. His successor, Bakary Fofana, presented in December a timetable setting the elections for 12 May 2013. Does this signal a way forward? Did this peculiar form of dialogue, with accusations, manoeuvres and anger, eventually yield progress? Although there has been some headway, the level of polarisation remains high. The appointment of the new INEC members created fresh friction, with its new president rapidly coming under fire, and it is this contentious institution that must resolve the key problem of the electoral register. Tension on that issue boiled over on 10 December, when the opposition accused Fofana of violating the procedures of INEC by refusing to release a report on the register prepared by the International Organisation of Francophonie (Organisation internationale de la francophonie, OIF), and considered calling for his resignation. Fofana’s announcement, the following day, that elections would be held in May 2013 raised the temperature further: the opposition rejected that date, arguing that the INEC plenary had not been consulted. The opposition also protested against the technical weaknesses and lack of transparency in the process of revising the electoral register, as well as the lack of preparation for the Guinean diaspora’s vote. On 29 January, the opposition, allied with a number of “centrist” parties, called for new demonstrations and dismissed the direct dialogue called for by the authorities as a ploy to have them cancel the protest. During a new INEC meeting to discuss the electoral register on 11 February, the majority supporting President Condé voted to endorse the controversial revision while opposition commissioners walked out. They might decide to suspend permanently their participation. In sum, the situation remains worrisome. Holding elections while the government and opposition disagree on fundamental issues is dangerous. The government shows contempt for the opposition and took almost a year to engage in dialogue. The opposition maintains that President Condé was elected through fraud and prefers to avoid elections (or, at least, does not want transparent and consensual polls). It accuses the regime of ethnic favouritism. Civil society, which played a key role at the end of the 2000s, is now divided along political and ethnic lines. Controversial elections against the backdrop of ethnic disputes raise many risks at both local and national levels. Electoral turmoil could degenerate into significant violence. Security sector reform has made limited progress and tension remains very high between the security forces, accustomed to impunity and also affected by ethnic disputes, and the population, exasperated by police and army brutality. Electoral troubles could offer opportunities to those in the armed forces who have not fully accepted their new submission to civilian authority. The Condé regime cannot simply talk about its good governance and development ambitions: it must also iron out political tensions. Moreover, it is more important that the vote is credible than that it takes place in May – although with so much time already lost it should take place as soon as possible and certainly before December 2013. For this to happen, dialogue is vital. The road to the elections will be rocky, but it is crucial to keep friction to a minimum, maintain serious dialogue between the parties and rebuild trust in the electoral apparatus. It is also necessary to strengthen the capacity of the political system – the judiciary, territorial administration, security forces, INEC, political parties – and for civil society to manage in a proper and credible manner the conflicts that will inevitably emerge during the long electoral journey ahead. 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