Report 192 / Africa

布隆迪:告别阿鲁沙?

执行摘要

尽管布隆迪的国家机构在正常运转,布隆迪政府也一直标榜其在国家发展和安全事务上取得的成果,这个国家其实正在退步。2010年的选举僵局造成的结果是,事实上的一党制取代了阿鲁沙协议,这种变化有如下特征:反对党和执政党之间的对话划上句号,政府开始走向独裁,政治暴力重新抬头。自2010年以来,政府在很大程度上忽视了对政治上的少数派和法治的尊重。要确保持久的稳定,政治行为体应当重启对话,保证2015年选举的多元化,并支持一个协商一致的过渡期司法程序。考虑到当前的国际合作伙伴对布隆迪建设和平的努力提供赞助并提供可观的援助,同时又缺乏其它捐助者,在这种情况下,国际合作伙伴应当将上述问题作为与布隆迪政府讨论的重点。

自2010年选举以后,问题没有得到解决。反对党对选举进程进行了抵制,之后组成了一个联盟(即变革民主联盟,the Democratic Alliance for Change, ADC-Ikibiri),一些反对党领导人则开始流亡。接着反对党和执政党(即保卫民主党全国委员会-保卫民主力量,the National Council for the Defence of Democracy and the Forces for the Defence of Democracy, CNDD-FDD)之间又发生了一系列暴力冲突。因为受到武装团体的挑战和公民社会的批评,政府已经诉诸镇压和恐吓措施。

执政党对国家机构的控制以及一个真正意义的反对党的缺失,使得阿鲁沙协议中提出的权力分享体系失去了意义。执政党根据其意愿管理着国家事务和过渡期司法程序。另外,执政党还在使安全服务机构化,并秘密准备修改宪法。现在,唯一对权力进行制衡的是媒体和公民社会。

不过还有一个机会窗口。一方面,社会经济问题、日益膨胀的社会不满情绪和法外处决给政府带来了极大的压力。另一方面,欧盟和布隆迪政府之间的对话以及布隆迪的政治行为体彼此之间的对话最近已经平行展开。2012年5月28日至6月2日,“非政府组织动议和变革”(the non-governmental organisation Initiatives and Change)在瑞士举办了一个会议,大多数反对党的代表、公民社会的领袖以及执政党的两名成员参加了会议。

要让这些平行对话继续进行下去,并巩固布隆迪的和平,需要执政党和反对党之间的相互让步。同时,这也将要求捐助者就政治和安全问题与当局保持对话,并采取财政激励措施,尤其是为筹备选举和安全部门改革采取财政激励。国际社会努力的重点应该是:保护记者和公民社会活动家,赋予独立的人权委员会权力,围绕人权来促进安全部门改革。

布琼布拉/内罗毕⁄布鲁塞尔,2012年10月25日

Executive Summary

Although the institutions are functioning and the government has been priding itself on its development and security achievements, Burundi is regressing. Due to the 2010 electoral impasse, the Arusha agreement has been replaced by a de facto one-party system characterised by the end of dialogue between the opposition and the ruling party, the government’s authoritarian drift and the resumption of political violence. Respect for the political minorities and rule of law has been largely ignored since 2010. To ensure lasting stability, the political actors should resume dialogue, guarantee pluralism for the 2015 elections and support a consensual transitional justice process. Given that they sponsor peacebuilding efforts, provide a significant amount of aid to Burundi and in the absence of other donors, the current international partners should focus on these issues while discussing with the government.

The dust has not yet settled since the 2010 elections. After boycotting the electoral process, the opposition parties formed a coalition (the Democratic Alliance for Change, ADC-Ikibiri) and several opposition leaders went into exile. A wave of mutual violence by the opposition and the ruling party (the National Council for the Defence of Democracy and the Forces for the Defence of Democracy, CNDD-FDD) ensued. Challenged by armed groups and criticised by civil society, the government has resorted to repression and intimidation.

The control of the institutions by the ruling party and the absence of a genuine opposition made the power-sharing system defined by the Arusha agreement irrelevant. The ruling party is managing state business and the transitional justice process as it wishes. In addition, it is instrumentalising the security services and is preparing a constitutional change behind closed doors. Today, the only checks and balances are the media and civil society.

However, there is a window of opportunity. On the one hand, socio-economic problems, rising social discontent and extrajudicial killings put severe strains on the government. On the other hand, parallel dialogues have recently started between the European Union and the Burundian government and between Burundian political actors. From 28 May to 2 June 2012, the non-governmental organisation (NGO) Initiatives and Change hosted a meeting in Switzerland with representatives of most of the opposition parties, civil society leaders and two members of the ruling party.

Continuing these parallel dialogues and consolidating peace in Burundi will require mutual concessions by the ruling party and the opposition. It will also require that the donors maintain dialogue with the authorities on the political and security problems and resort to financial incentives, particularly for the preparation of the elections and the security sector reform. International efforts should focus on protecting journalists and civil society activists, empowering the independent human rights commission and promoting a security sector reform centred on human rights.

Bujumbura/Nairobi/Brussels, 25 October 2012

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